Marc Faber Says Fed `Like a Bartender' Cutting Rates (Update3)
By Pimm Fox and Eric Martin
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve acted ``like a bartender'' in lowering interest rates and its actions are contributing to a stock market bubble in the U.S., investor Marc Faber said.
``Each time you bail out, it becomes bigger and bigger, and the credit problems become much, much larger,'' said Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. The Fed ``feeds its customers with booze, and when they get totally drunk and are about to fall off their chairs, the bartender gives them more booze to keep them going. One day, it will lead to the ultimate breakdown.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 2.9 percent since the Fed cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point on Sept. 18 to keep credit market losses from spurring a recession. Faber said the action spared U.S. financial companies such as Citigroup Inc. from the consequences of bad lending decisions.
``If Citigroup made a mistake, let them be penalized, let the shareholders of Citigroup be penalized,'' Faber said in an interview in New York. ``Then the shareholders will eventually put pressure on the board of directors not to do continuously stupid things.''
The biggest U.S. bank dropped 12 percent last week after saying credit defaults will plague the financial industry for the rest of the year. Citigroup spokeswoman Shannon Bell declined to comment.
``The best for the system would be if a major player would go bust,'' Faber said. ``Then there would be an example for investors and for the players, the Wall Street establishment, the banks, to be more prudent.''
China, India
Faber said this year's rally in Chinese assets, including the 171 percent gain in the CSI 300 Index, will end by the August 2008 start of the Olympic Games in Beijing. He predicted India's gains will end by the same time. The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index has climbed 34 percent this year.
``We still have the emerging markets going ballistic,'' Faber said. ``The Chinese market could double here, but it doesn't change the fact we are already in bubble stage.''
Faber said if bubbles in emerging markets deflate, the dollar may rebound from all-time lows against the euro as fund managers who have invested in emerging markets invest in the U.S.
The European Central Bank has raised its key interest rate eight times to 4 percent from 2 percent in November 2005, a ``more responsible'' policy than the Fed's, Faber said.
Track Record
Faber told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks a week before 1987's so-called Black Monday crash, according to his Web site. He correctly predicted in May 2005 that stocks would make little headway that year. The S&P 500 gained 3 percent. He also told investors to buy gold in 2001, before it more than doubled.
On March 29, Faber said the emergence of home loan concerns meant the U.S. stock market was unlikely to benefit from the conditions that supported its rally since June 2006. The S&P 500 climbed 10 percent between then and July 19, when it reached a record, and again reached new highs on Oct. 5 and Oct. 9.
In February 2004, he said stocks in Brazil and Argentina were expensive because investors were overestimating China's demand for commodities. Brazil's Bovespa index has since more than doubled while Argentina's Merval Index has gained about 90 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net ; Pimm Fox in New York at Pfox11@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: October 23, 2007 16:55 EDT
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Thursday, October 25, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Jim Rogers Shifts Assets Out of Dollar to Buy Yuan
Jim Rogers Shifts Assets Out of Dollar to Buy Yuan (Update1)
By Marcel van de Hoef and Danielle Rossingh
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and buying Chinese yuan because the Federal Reserve has eroded the value of the U.S. currency.
``I'm in the process of -- I hope in the next few months -- getting all of my assets out of U.S. dollars,'' said Rogers, 65, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999. ``I'm that pessimistic about what's happening in the U.S.''
Rogers, delivering a presentation late yesterday at an investors' meeting organized by ABN Amro Markets in Amsterdam, said he expects the Chinese currency to quadruple in the next decade and that he is holding on to commodities such as platinum, gold, silver and palladium.
The dollar has dropped against all the 16 most actively traded currencies except the Mexican peso this year as slowing growth and the first interest-rate reduction since 2003 last month dimmed the allure of dollar-denominated assets.
Since the Fed lowered U.S. interest rates on Sept. 18, the first cut in four years, the dollar has fallen 2.8 percent against the euro and touched a record low yesterday. Gold rose to a 27-year high and platinum jumped to a record.
``It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency,'' said Rogers, a former partner of George Soros.
Reserve Currency
``The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange,'' he said. ``That's in the process of changing. The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80 percent of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency.''
The Chinese currency, known as the renminbi, or yuan, is ``the best currency to buy right now,'' Rogers said. ``I don't see how one can really lose on the renminbi in the next decade or so. It's gotta go. It's gotta triple. It's gotta quadruple.''
The yuan strengthened past 7.5 to the dollar today for the first since the central bank ended a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. The currency has gained 10.5 percent since the dollar link was abandoned.
China, growing faster than any other major economy, is ``going to be the most important country in the 21st century,'' he said. China's gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter, and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the economy grew by 11.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30.
Rogers also is buying Swiss francs and Japanese yen, which he said have been ``pounded down'' because of the so-called carry trades.
Unwinding Carry Trades
In the carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates, such as Japan, and invest the proceeds where rates are higher. Japan's benchmark overnight lending rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.
The carry trades in yen and francs will ``unwind someday,'' which will send the currencies ``straight up,'' Rogers said. ``I'm buying the yen.''
The bull markets in bonds and stocks are ``over,'' he said. ``Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years and will in fact be going down for many years.''
Rogers said he remains bullish on commodities because ``that's where the big fortunes are going to be made in the world in the next five, or 10 or 15 years. The current bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022.''
Commodity Prices
Commodity prices have surged as demand for raw materials, especially from China, rose faster than producers were able to increase output. Agricultural prices have led recent gains, including a record high for wheat last month and a three-year high in soybeans.
``The number of hectares devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 30 years, the inventory levels of food are at the lowest level since 1972,'' Rogers said. ``Suppose we start having droughts again. God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things.''
He added, ``I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals.''
Platinum, gold, silver and palladium will ``be much, much higher during the course of the bull market,'' he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Marcel van de Hoef in Amsterdam at mvandehoef@bloomberg.net ; Danielle Rossingh in London at drossingh@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 24, 2007 00:48 EDT
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By Marcel van de Hoef and Danielle Rossingh
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and buying Chinese yuan because the Federal Reserve has eroded the value of the U.S. currency.
``I'm in the process of -- I hope in the next few months -- getting all of my assets out of U.S. dollars,'' said Rogers, 65, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999. ``I'm that pessimistic about what's happening in the U.S.''
Rogers, delivering a presentation late yesterday at an investors' meeting organized by ABN Amro Markets in Amsterdam, said he expects the Chinese currency to quadruple in the next decade and that he is holding on to commodities such as platinum, gold, silver and palladium.
The dollar has dropped against all the 16 most actively traded currencies except the Mexican peso this year as slowing growth and the first interest-rate reduction since 2003 last month dimmed the allure of dollar-denominated assets.
Since the Fed lowered U.S. interest rates on Sept. 18, the first cut in four years, the dollar has fallen 2.8 percent against the euro and touched a record low yesterday. Gold rose to a 27-year high and platinum jumped to a record.
``It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency,'' said Rogers, a former partner of George Soros.
Reserve Currency
``The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange,'' he said. ``That's in the process of changing. The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80 percent of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency.''
The Chinese currency, known as the renminbi, or yuan, is ``the best currency to buy right now,'' Rogers said. ``I don't see how one can really lose on the renminbi in the next decade or so. It's gotta go. It's gotta triple. It's gotta quadruple.''
The yuan strengthened past 7.5 to the dollar today for the first since the central bank ended a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. The currency has gained 10.5 percent since the dollar link was abandoned.
China, growing faster than any other major economy, is ``going to be the most important country in the 21st century,'' he said. China's gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter, and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the economy grew by 11.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30.
Rogers also is buying Swiss francs and Japanese yen, which he said have been ``pounded down'' because of the so-called carry trades.
Unwinding Carry Trades
In the carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates, such as Japan, and invest the proceeds where rates are higher. Japan's benchmark overnight lending rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.
The carry trades in yen and francs will ``unwind someday,'' which will send the currencies ``straight up,'' Rogers said. ``I'm buying the yen.''
The bull markets in bonds and stocks are ``over,'' he said. ``Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years and will in fact be going down for many years.''
Rogers said he remains bullish on commodities because ``that's where the big fortunes are going to be made in the world in the next five, or 10 or 15 years. The current bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022.''
Commodity Prices
Commodity prices have surged as demand for raw materials, especially from China, rose faster than producers were able to increase output. Agricultural prices have led recent gains, including a record high for wheat last month and a three-year high in soybeans.
``The number of hectares devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 30 years, the inventory levels of food are at the lowest level since 1972,'' Rogers said. ``Suppose we start having droughts again. God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things.''
He added, ``I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals.''
Platinum, gold, silver and palladium will ``be much, much higher during the course of the bull market,'' he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Marcel van de Hoef in Amsterdam at mvandehoef@bloomberg.net ; Danielle Rossingh in London at drossingh@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 24, 2007 00:48 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqNT0qlW_zQE&refer=home
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vwgYMnHDYD6Q.asf
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