Jim Rogers on China's stocks: not the time to buy
September 11, 2009
China's shares nearly doubled this year, and then plummeted 20 percent within a month. Reports asked investment guru Jim Rogers when is a good time to buy China stocks while he was attending the China International Financial Services Conference (CIFSC) held in Guangzhou on September 10.
Rogers says since 1999, he bought shares of China, and has never sold them. He believes that after ten years China stocks will still be rising, but at the same time he has sold all stocks from the other emerging market countries.
Last year in October, he bought shares in China again. But the Chinese stocks he bought were H-shares, B shares, and S shares. He has never bought A shares, since the A shares are too expensive, and perhaps one day, China's H shares, B shares, S shares and A shares will merger as one kind of stocks.
If signs of collapse appear in China's stock market, he would buy more Chinese stocks. He thinks this may occur in the near future, but not now, because although China's stock market is making adjustment, no one is selling Chinese shares in large quantities. Besides, China's stock market rose 80 percent in the past six months, prices have been too high, and I will not buy Chinese stocks at this time. After a year or two, I would consider buying Chinese stocks again.
By People's Daily Online
Showing posts with label Jim Rogers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Rogers. Show all posts
Monday, September 14, 2009
Wait and See Investment in A-shares, Big City Real Estate
Jim Rogers: Wait and See Investment in A-shares, Big City Real Estate
byCSC staff, Shanghai
September-11-2009
Jim Rogers, an American investor and financial commentator based in Singapore who has been paying close attention to the Asian market, sees that in the past 10 months, A-shares values have doubled, but predicts that there will be a negative change in September-November. He adds he would neither buy nor sell shares at present, points out that in the next 20 years agriculture will be a very promising industry in China, and suggests that everybody play the role of "farmer."
In the first half of this year, China's economic stimulus policies to deal with the financial crisis and lending of seven trillion yuan boosted domestic stock and property transactions and prices hit new highs.
But the A-share market has been fluctuating recently between 2600 and 3000 points. At the second China International Financial Services Conference, held at Guangzhou in South China on September 9-10, Rogers noted that although China's economy is improving, market risk is brewing, and he predicted the Hong Kong market could have problems in the next few months, which will affect the domestic market. Rogers believes that the current autumn round is perhaps the shift from bear to bull market, and investors should be patient and wait for opportunities to buy rather than rush into the market.
In addition, conditions in Europe and the US have not fully recovered, and their lack of improvement will influence China's exports and affect its markets. Time is needed to observe the continuing development of the European and US economies.
Rogers believes that, just as the market has worried, huge amounts of money issued by central banks is leading to inflation, and that investing in commodities would be a good choice, especially raw materials, natural resources, energy and bulk commodities. Non-renewable resources will be particularly profitable products in the next round of investment. The prices of silver, sugar and coffee have decreased 70% from their high points. When the global economy picks up, demand for commodities will rise, so will prices. If economies continue to falter, governments will continue to release liquidity, and commodity investors can benefit from the effects of inflation.
Rogers emphasizes that in recent years a food crisis has emerged, and may become serious in the next decade. Investors should pay attention to commodities such as wheat. In the long run, investors should watch growth industries. China's agriculture, for example, has great growth potential due to huge investment from the government in recent years. In addition, water conservancy in Asia has great potential because India and China are often affected by flooding or drought. Tourism is also promising.
Rogers predicts the USD's status may be reduced in the next 5-10 years with the development of Asia and the decline of the US. He reasons that China, Japan and other Asian countries are gradually hold financial claims and European and American countries are turning into debtors, meaning that global capital flows are diverting to Asia. In terms of historical evolution, the economic center was in the UK in the 19th century, then in the US in the 20th century. It may well be China in the 21st century.
Rogers believes that domestic real estate development is good. In the past two months, housing prices have greatly increased in many cities, but he says he would not buy property at present, especially in Shanghai or Hong Kong.
In response to the financial crisis, central banks have released vast liquidity but different orientations have emerged in China and the US. Rogers says that in the first half year China invested in medium and long-term infrastructure, which can enhance future competitiveness, truly investing in the future, while the US invested 70%-80% of the resources into short-term projects.
It is generally believed that huge amounts of capital released, whether invested in short or long-term projects, will bring on inflationary pressures. The difference is that the pulling effect of short-term projects for follow-up competitiveness is not as good as for long-term projects. In evaluating government efforts to relieve the financial crisis, Rogers says that China and Singapore have done better than the US or Britain.
http://www.chinastakes.com/PrintArticle.aspx?articleid=1499
byCSC staff, Shanghai
September-11-2009
Jim Rogers, an American investor and financial commentator based in Singapore who has been paying close attention to the Asian market, sees that in the past 10 months, A-shares values have doubled, but predicts that there will be a negative change in September-November. He adds he would neither buy nor sell shares at present, points out that in the next 20 years agriculture will be a very promising industry in China, and suggests that everybody play the role of "farmer."
In the first half of this year, China's economic stimulus policies to deal with the financial crisis and lending of seven trillion yuan boosted domestic stock and property transactions and prices hit new highs.
But the A-share market has been fluctuating recently between 2600 and 3000 points. At the second China International Financial Services Conference, held at Guangzhou in South China on September 9-10, Rogers noted that although China's economy is improving, market risk is brewing, and he predicted the Hong Kong market could have problems in the next few months, which will affect the domestic market. Rogers believes that the current autumn round is perhaps the shift from bear to bull market, and investors should be patient and wait for opportunities to buy rather than rush into the market.
In addition, conditions in Europe and the US have not fully recovered, and their lack of improvement will influence China's exports and affect its markets. Time is needed to observe the continuing development of the European and US economies.
Rogers believes that, just as the market has worried, huge amounts of money issued by central banks is leading to inflation, and that investing in commodities would be a good choice, especially raw materials, natural resources, energy and bulk commodities. Non-renewable resources will be particularly profitable products in the next round of investment. The prices of silver, sugar and coffee have decreased 70% from their high points. When the global economy picks up, demand for commodities will rise, so will prices. If economies continue to falter, governments will continue to release liquidity, and commodity investors can benefit from the effects of inflation.
Rogers emphasizes that in recent years a food crisis has emerged, and may become serious in the next decade. Investors should pay attention to commodities such as wheat. In the long run, investors should watch growth industries. China's agriculture, for example, has great growth potential due to huge investment from the government in recent years. In addition, water conservancy in Asia has great potential because India and China are often affected by flooding or drought. Tourism is also promising.
Rogers predicts the USD's status may be reduced in the next 5-10 years with the development of Asia and the decline of the US. He reasons that China, Japan and other Asian countries are gradually hold financial claims and European and American countries are turning into debtors, meaning that global capital flows are diverting to Asia. In terms of historical evolution, the economic center was in the UK in the 19th century, then in the US in the 20th century. It may well be China in the 21st century.
Rogers believes that domestic real estate development is good. In the past two months, housing prices have greatly increased in many cities, but he says he would not buy property at present, especially in Shanghai or Hong Kong.
In response to the financial crisis, central banks have released vast liquidity but different orientations have emerged in China and the US. Rogers says that in the first half year China invested in medium and long-term infrastructure, which can enhance future competitiveness, truly investing in the future, while the US invested 70%-80% of the resources into short-term projects.
It is generally believed that huge amounts of capital released, whether invested in short or long-term projects, will bring on inflationary pressures. The difference is that the pulling effect of short-term projects for follow-up competitiveness is not as good as for long-term projects. In evaluating government efforts to relieve the financial crisis, Rogers says that China and Singapore have done better than the US or Britain.
http://www.chinastakes.com/PrintArticle.aspx?articleid=1499
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Commodities are sizzling, says Jim Rogers
Commodities are sizzling, says Jim Rogers
14 Jul 2009, 0013 hrs IST, Andy Mukherjee, ET Now
In an exclusive interview with ET NOW , Mr Rogers reiterated his view that a currency crisis could happen any time in the
near future. But he’s not sure yet who’s going to pay the price — pound sterling, US dollar or even the rupee. Excerpts: ( Watch )
The commodities rally seems to have paused. The Rogers International Commodity Index has come off 13% since June 12. This pullback, essentially as I can see, is because of tin, energy and silver even as some of those agri commodities like orange juice, sugar and cotton have done well. What are your expectations going forward for commodities?
That's the way I know you know about commodities. You read The Economic Times and your ET TV. So, you know that the markets always have corrections whether they are going up or down. Nothing goes straight up or down forever. So, it's having a normal correction. In my view, the best place to be is in real assetscommodities, because if the world is going to recover, they (commodities) will recover first because of the shortages and if the world economy is not going to recover, they are still the best place to be, because governments around the world are printing huge amounts of money. So, if you got to own something, I don't much to own besides commodities.
In India, we are getting worried about the monsoon. We are looking out of our windows and not finding any clouds, and there is also talk about El Nino weather formation. Is this something you would advise investors to keep an eye on?
Of course, I would. The world's inventories of food are at the lowest they have been in decades. We haven't have had any serious weather problems around the world for several decades as a matter of fact. So, with fairly good weather, we have been having bad harvest or we have been consuming more than we have been producing. Can you imagine what's going to happen to the price of agriculture if we have bad weather around the world?
The last time we met here in Mumbai you had a sachet of sugar in your pocket and you pulled it out to underscore your point of impending shortage about agri commodities. You have been right about sugar as far as we can see from the price charts. What are you hiding today in your pockets? A silver coin, a hip flask full of crude oil, may be?
I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I don't know how you knew. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver. The dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the stocks rally in March. Commodities have risen 94% of the time that the dollar has fallen. A very strong correlation. Do we expect the dollar decline and the commodity run-up, therefore, to continue? It's not always a strong correlation. You are right; there has been (a correlation) in recent months, recent years even. But no, there are many times when the dollar and commodities go entirely separate ways. So, don't get it into your head, and I know many times that the press do have it in their head that commodities and dollars go opposite ways. I am not terribly bullish on the dollar in long term. US dollars are a terribly flawed currency and down the road I hope I don't own any US dollars. I still own some of them at the moment, but it's not getting better for the US. The dollar any way is getting worse. The fundamental for commodities continue to improve. The fundamentals for the US dollar do not continue to improve. They are deteriorating.
Are you still sticking to your prediction of a currency crisis sometime in a year or two?
Yes. The world is full of currency imbalances and economic trade imbalances would have to be resolved or corrected, one way or the other. Unfortunately, given the state of politicians and it's not just the current state of politicians, but politicians throughout history have usually got things wrong. So, we are going to have some problems in the currency market. I don't know when. May be not. I may be wrong. But having seen that sort of thing before in history somebody would have to pay the price whether it's the pound sterling or the US dollar or the rupee, I have no clue. No idea where it’s going to stop, but we are going to have problems in the currency markets.
What’s your view on global equities now? Do you think emerging markets’ premium over developed country markets has gone a way too high?
I don't pay any attention to things like emerging markets premium. You talk about it on TV, but every market is different. Why can't I just go out and buy emerging markets when it is likely to go broke. Every market is different, every country is different, every economy is different and every sector of the economies is different. Just because you are in an emerging country does not mean you are going to make money if you get the wrong sector. I have not bought any stocks anywhere in the world in the last couple of years except China. I did buy some Chinese shares back in October-November. I have not been buying anything other than that for some time. I have been worried about the world economy, about the world stock markets. If you got to be somewhere and if there is going to be a recovery, it will show up in commodities best of all, and if there is not going to be any recovery, commodities are still a better place to be.
So what are you buying nowadays?
If you want to put in your money somewhere, put it in commodities. That's the only thing I bought recently. I have bought some yen and swiss francs. If you know enough about currencies to figure out who is going to benefit, if I am right about the currency turmoil coming, then you can buy some of the currencies and if you think that the rupee is the place to be, then you can buy some rupees.
Long-term inflation expectations in the US as reflected by the five-year forward breaking rates on treasury inflation protected securities. Those have hardened considerably since the beginning of the year. That's also your view, right? Too much money in the financial systems and monetary authorities the world over don't have a credible plan to withdraw liquidity?
I cannot conceive of lending money to the US government for 30 years in US dollars for 3, 4, 5 or 6% interest. It's just inconceivable to me that I would let them have my money for 30 years and they would pay me back someday in US dollars at such a low rate of interest. I expect problems in the bond market. I don't know when. I am not sure about the bond market. I was short in the bond market, but I got out. I expect to see serious problems in the bond market down the road.
In the near term, markets seem to be more concerned about growth than they are about inflation. The difference between the 10-year and the two-year bond yield in the US has narrowed some 40 basis points since early June. Unlike you Jim, people are actually going out and buying long maturity treasuries because they don't see growth, don't see inflation. So, what do say to these bond buyers? Good luck?
When you see anomalies like this in the market, you are supposed to take advantage . The spread is very low. So, why would anybody buy a 10-year when he can buy a two-year ? Not worth the extra risk to go out 10 years. I would urge people to keep their wits. Now, granted Mr Bernanke and the US are buying a lot of government paper and driving the price up. That's why I am not sure. He has got more buying power than I do, at least for the foreseeable future. So, you are seeing longer bonds going up. That gives you an opportunity to get out if you own them or think about selling them short if you don't own them and know how to sell short.
RAPIDFIRE ROUND
Ben Bernanke: Hero or villian?
He's an idiot. ( Watch )
US stocks: Buy now or stay away?
I'm not buying them.
US banking stocks: Short them or stay away?
I'm doing neither. I am watching. They're down a whole lot.
US bonds: Short them or stay away?
I'm doing neither right now. My next move will probably be to sell them short.
In Asia: Sri Lankan stocks or Indian equities?
I'd rather buy Sri Lanka than India.
Chinese stocks or Indian stocks?
I'm not buying either at the moment. I don't own any Indian stocks. I own Chinese shares which I am not selling. The Indian... I wouldn't buy either.
Gold or silver?
I'd rather buy silver today. I own both and I'm not selling either.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4774115.cms
14 Jul 2009, 0013 hrs IST, Andy Mukherjee, ET Now
In an exclusive interview with ET NOW , Mr Rogers reiterated his view that a currency crisis could happen any time in the
near future. But he’s not sure yet who’s going to pay the price — pound sterling, US dollar or even the rupee. Excerpts: ( Watch )
The commodities rally seems to have paused. The Rogers International Commodity Index has come off 13% since June 12. This pullback, essentially as I can see, is because of tin, energy and silver even as some of those agri commodities like orange juice, sugar and cotton have done well. What are your expectations going forward for commodities?
That's the way I know you know about commodities. You read The Economic Times and your ET TV. So, you know that the markets always have corrections whether they are going up or down. Nothing goes straight up or down forever. So, it's having a normal correction. In my view, the best place to be is in real assetscommodities, because if the world is going to recover, they (commodities) will recover first because of the shortages and if the world economy is not going to recover, they are still the best place to be, because governments around the world are printing huge amounts of money. So, if you got to own something, I don't much to own besides commodities.
In India, we are getting worried about the monsoon. We are looking out of our windows and not finding any clouds, and there is also talk about El Nino weather formation. Is this something you would advise investors to keep an eye on?
Of course, I would. The world's inventories of food are at the lowest they have been in decades. We haven't have had any serious weather problems around the world for several decades as a matter of fact. So, with fairly good weather, we have been having bad harvest or we have been consuming more than we have been producing. Can you imagine what's going to happen to the price of agriculture if we have bad weather around the world?
The last time we met here in Mumbai you had a sachet of sugar in your pocket and you pulled it out to underscore your point of impending shortage about agri commodities. You have been right about sugar as far as we can see from the price charts. What are you hiding today in your pockets? A silver coin, a hip flask full of crude oil, may be?
I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I don't know how you knew. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver. The dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the stocks rally in March. Commodities have risen 94% of the time that the dollar has fallen. A very strong correlation. Do we expect the dollar decline and the commodity run-up, therefore, to continue? It's not always a strong correlation. You are right; there has been (a correlation) in recent months, recent years even. But no, there are many times when the dollar and commodities go entirely separate ways. So, don't get it into your head, and I know many times that the press do have it in their head that commodities and dollars go opposite ways. I am not terribly bullish on the dollar in long term. US dollars are a terribly flawed currency and down the road I hope I don't own any US dollars. I still own some of them at the moment, but it's not getting better for the US. The dollar any way is getting worse. The fundamental for commodities continue to improve. The fundamentals for the US dollar do not continue to improve. They are deteriorating.
Are you still sticking to your prediction of a currency crisis sometime in a year or two?
Yes. The world is full of currency imbalances and economic trade imbalances would have to be resolved or corrected, one way or the other. Unfortunately, given the state of politicians and it's not just the current state of politicians, but politicians throughout history have usually got things wrong. So, we are going to have some problems in the currency market. I don't know when. May be not. I may be wrong. But having seen that sort of thing before in history somebody would have to pay the price whether it's the pound sterling or the US dollar or the rupee, I have no clue. No idea where it’s going to stop, but we are going to have problems in the currency markets.
What’s your view on global equities now? Do you think emerging markets’ premium over developed country markets has gone a way too high?
I don't pay any attention to things like emerging markets premium. You talk about it on TV, but every market is different. Why can't I just go out and buy emerging markets when it is likely to go broke. Every market is different, every country is different, every economy is different and every sector of the economies is different. Just because you are in an emerging country does not mean you are going to make money if you get the wrong sector. I have not bought any stocks anywhere in the world in the last couple of years except China. I did buy some Chinese shares back in October-November. I have not been buying anything other than that for some time. I have been worried about the world economy, about the world stock markets. If you got to be somewhere and if there is going to be a recovery, it will show up in commodities best of all, and if there is not going to be any recovery, commodities are still a better place to be.
So what are you buying nowadays?
If you want to put in your money somewhere, put it in commodities. That's the only thing I bought recently. I have bought some yen and swiss francs. If you know enough about currencies to figure out who is going to benefit, if I am right about the currency turmoil coming, then you can buy some of the currencies and if you think that the rupee is the place to be, then you can buy some rupees.
Long-term inflation expectations in the US as reflected by the five-year forward breaking rates on treasury inflation protected securities. Those have hardened considerably since the beginning of the year. That's also your view, right? Too much money in the financial systems and monetary authorities the world over don't have a credible plan to withdraw liquidity?
I cannot conceive of lending money to the US government for 30 years in US dollars for 3, 4, 5 or 6% interest. It's just inconceivable to me that I would let them have my money for 30 years and they would pay me back someday in US dollars at such a low rate of interest. I expect problems in the bond market. I don't know when. I am not sure about the bond market. I was short in the bond market, but I got out. I expect to see serious problems in the bond market down the road.
In the near term, markets seem to be more concerned about growth than they are about inflation. The difference between the 10-year and the two-year bond yield in the US has narrowed some 40 basis points since early June. Unlike you Jim, people are actually going out and buying long maturity treasuries because they don't see growth, don't see inflation. So, what do say to these bond buyers? Good luck?
When you see anomalies like this in the market, you are supposed to take advantage . The spread is very low. So, why would anybody buy a 10-year when he can buy a two-year ? Not worth the extra risk to go out 10 years. I would urge people to keep their wits. Now, granted Mr Bernanke and the US are buying a lot of government paper and driving the price up. That's why I am not sure. He has got more buying power than I do, at least for the foreseeable future. So, you are seeing longer bonds going up. That gives you an opportunity to get out if you own them or think about selling them short if you don't own them and know how to sell short.
RAPIDFIRE ROUND
Ben Bernanke: Hero or villian?
He's an idiot. ( Watch )
US stocks: Buy now or stay away?
I'm not buying them.
US banking stocks: Short them or stay away?
I'm doing neither. I am watching. They're down a whole lot.
US bonds: Short them or stay away?
I'm doing neither right now. My next move will probably be to sell them short.
In Asia: Sri Lankan stocks or Indian equities?
I'd rather buy Sri Lanka than India.
Chinese stocks or Indian stocks?
I'm not buying either at the moment. I don't own any Indian stocks. I own Chinese shares which I am not selling. The Indian... I wouldn't buy either.
Gold or silver?
I'd rather buy silver today. I own both and I'm not selling either.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4774115.cms
Friday, June 26, 2009
Jim Rogers says has no short positions, selling dollars
Jim Rogers says has no short positions, selling dollars
Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:49am EDT
SINGAPORE, June 25 (Reuters) - Investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday that he sees prolonged economic problems and while he did not see much worth buying, he is not shorting any assets either.
He repeated a previous comment that he is selling his U.S. dollars and that commodities were the best investment bet.
"I have no shorts for one of the first times in my life," Rogers, a co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, told Reuters TV in Singapore. "On the other hand I don't see much to buy."
He said huge borrowing by governments, particularly in the United States and Britain, would hurt their currencies and lead to future problems, though he picked the Canadian dollar CAD as one of the "soundest" currencies. "I've got out of my pounds. I will be getting out of my (U.S.) dollars soon," he said, repeating his view that commodities were the best place to be with metals having gained more than stocks this year and long-term potential for soft commodities.
"I'd rather be a farmer than a stockbroker for the next couple of years," he said. "No-one you went to school with became a farmer... so we have a shortage of farmers."
Rogers, who lives in ethnically Chinese Singapore, co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund, since closed, returned 4,200 percent in the next decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
"If you're in London you're in the wrong place at the wrong time... You gotta move east."
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSSP50971720090625?sp=true
Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:49am EDT
SINGAPORE, June 25 (Reuters) - Investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday that he sees prolonged economic problems and while he did not see much worth buying, he is not shorting any assets either.
He repeated a previous comment that he is selling his U.S. dollars and that commodities were the best investment bet.
"I have no shorts for one of the first times in my life," Rogers, a co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, told Reuters TV in Singapore. "On the other hand I don't see much to buy."
He said huge borrowing by governments, particularly in the United States and Britain, would hurt their currencies and lead to future problems, though he picked the Canadian dollar CAD as one of the "soundest" currencies. "I've got out of my pounds. I will be getting out of my (U.S.) dollars soon," he said, repeating his view that commodities were the best place to be with metals having gained more than stocks this year and long-term potential for soft commodities.
"I'd rather be a farmer than a stockbroker for the next couple of years," he said. "No-one you went to school with became a farmer... so we have a shortage of farmers."
Rogers, who lives in ethnically Chinese Singapore, co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund, since closed, returned 4,200 percent in the next decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
"If you're in London you're in the wrong place at the wrong time... You gotta move east."
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSSP50971720090625?sp=true
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Fund Managers can become farmers: Jim Rogers
Fund Managers can become farmers: Jim Rogers
4 Jun 2009, 0005 hrs IST, ET Bureau
Even if you are outright bearish, don't short the market. Stocks could touch crazy levels, but they may be in currencies which are worthless.
Indeed, a sovereign default and currency turmoil could rattle world markets in a year or two. In a chat with ET, global investor Jim Rogers says cotton, silver and sugar can be hot picks. Read on.
At one stage we were inundated with gloomy forecasts, which were further reinforced by the IMF and World Bank. And then suddenly stocks surged — something most were not prepared for. How risky is the market today?
Central banks all over the world have printed huge amounts of money, and the real economy is not strong enough for all this money to be absorbed... so, it's going into stocks and real assets such as commodities. It's a mistake what they are doing. It's giving short-term pleasure, but there's long-term pain as we are going to have much higher inflation, much higher interest rates and a worse economy down the road.
The American bond market is already beginning to go down dramatically as people realise that the American government has to sell huge amount of bonds, and secondly, there is going to be inflation, serious inflation, as it was always in the past when you had governments printing huge amounts of money.
Stocks are rising even as fiscal deficit is widening. Somewhere it has to snap...
It's going to snap. Later this year, next year, we are going to have currency problems, maybe even a currency crisis. I don't know with which currency — maybe with the pound sterling, maybe with the US dollar, who knows. It maybe with something none of us have at the moment. When you have a currency crisis, stocks will be affected, many things will be affected. It is not sound, what's happening out there in the world.
In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end.
They are doing many of the same mistakes now. What's different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time.
What do you do? No politically-elected government can afford so much pain, unemployment and hardships...
America could have. America just had an election. The guy was elected in November and he could have come in the beginning of a four-year term and said the guys before me were hopeless idiots. They ruined things. We have to solve this problem. We have to take some pains now. But don't worry, we will get through this pain, and in two to three years or four years, things would be fine. And he could have been re-elected.
If the pain comes in 2010, 2011 or 2012, there will be nobody he can blame. Especially, if things go bad later, the opposition will say, wait a minute, 2009 looked good. The next guy is going to say you did it... But you are right. It's very difficult for an elected government. You have a newly-elected government in India. Whenever you have a new government they can take some of the pain.
You recently said that you would invest in China and Sri Lanka but not in India. Aren’t you betting on the new government in India?
I was trying to make a point that if anyone wants to invest in this particular part of the world, the best place would be Sri Lanka. Because it looks like the 30-year war is coming to an end.
Throughout history, if you go to a place after the war ends you usually find everything as very cheap, everyone is demoralised, people are just depressed and there are enormous opportunities if you have energy.
In my view, investing in Sri Lanka in May 2009 is probably a better bet than Pakistan, Bangladesh, India or some of the other countries nearby. Let's hope the new Indian government does something. I have heard wonderful things from Indian politicians for 40 years.
And rarely do they produce. It's not the first time that the Congress party has been in the power. If they mean it, India's going to be one of the greatest development stories in the next 20 years. But I don’t know if they mean it.
What kind of reforms?
Why isn't the currency convertible, why isn't foreign capital encouraged, why isn't foreign expertise encouraged, why is it so protectionist? Why are farmers only allowed to own five hectares? India should be the greatest farming nation in the world. You have the soil, the weather, you have everything and yet an Indian farmer can own only five hectares.
How can an Indian farmer compete with a guy in Ireland who can own 1,000 hectares or a guy in Brazil who can own 5,000 hectares? Smart people don't become farmers. Because what's the future? Whenever prices start going up, Indian politicians ban futures trading, as if futures trading makes prices go up. It's the craziest and the most absurd thing in the whole world. Prices go up because there is a reason for prices to go up.
Last year you were buying only Chinese stocks. Why?
The market collapsed in October-November. That's when I bought more Chinese shares. I have not bought any Chinese shares since then. I have not bought shares anywhere in the world since then. My way of participating in what's going on now is to buy commodities.
In my view, commodities are the only place where fundamentals are improving. Farmers can't get loans for fertilisers now, even though inventories of food are the lowest in decades. Nobody can get a loan to open a mine. So, you will have supplies of everything continuing to decline.
What else are you looking at while investing?
There are some industries in India that would do exceedingly well in the next few years, one of which is water. You have a horrible water problem. China also has a horrible water problem. So, I bought water companies in China. There are some great opportunities if America falls off the face of the earth. China is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to solve the agricultural problem.
So, I am buying agricultural stocks and water stocks in China. There are other industries in India which have a great future. I am very bullish on Indian tourism. Wherever I go for speeches around the world I tell people, if you have to go to one country in your lifetime, you should go to India.
Your government is going to re-build the military, they say. So, there's going to be great opportunities here. Also, they may build the infrastructure. So, I see many opportunities in India.
The possibility of a sovereign default in the developed world could further depress sentiments. You think it’s possible?
In 1918, the UK was the richest and the most powerful country in the world. Within one generation it was in shambles, within two-and-a-half generations it defaulted. The UK defaulted in 1970s and had to be bailed out by the IMF. Many of the countries in the developed world are in serious trouble right now.
Iceland has already defaulted. I think there could be a currency crisis because of sovereign debt problems later this year, next year or 2011. Developed nations have defaulted before. Remember the Asian crisis. It was a default of one kind or the other. It has happened before and it will happen again.
Are you worried about any particular market or region?
I am glad that I have no investments in the UK. Neither long, nor short. I am convinced that it’s in trouble. I am worried about the US. I have sold nearly all of my US dollars. I always had some as I am an American citizen. But I see serious problems developing there. Those two of the big developed countries are the ones that I see with the most likely problems.
But the problem is that it never works that way. Everybody is sitting here watching the UK and US and it may happen in say Portugal or some place we haven’t thought of and it will come suddenly to surprise us all.
If US unemployment touches the 10%-mark, it would further impact retail sales. How bad could this be for Asia?
Let's pick on China for a minute. If you sell to Wal-Mart in the US and if you are a Chinese supplier you know there is a problem. And you are going to be suffering. Any company that deals with the West is going to have problems. On the other hand, companies that are in the water-treatment business in Asia will care less if the West disappears. They are too busy making money, too busy going to work everyday.
What kind of commodities will smart money chase? Can money be made in crude?
I own gold but think silver is better right now. Natural gas is cheaper than oil right now, but I own them all. If you want to buy crude, you should probably buy cotton. Because all farmers in the US are planting corn to turn into energy. That means they are not going to plant any cotton. The best way to play crude oil is to buy cotton.
Right now, there are huge subsidies around the world for farmers to plant corn, maize, for instance, so that they can be converted into energy. If energy prices go higher, there will be even more of that.
If everybody plants his fields with soya, corn or palm oil to turn it into oil or energy then no one is going to plant cotton.
And you can make a lot more money in cotton than oil. Between oil and gold, buy cotton. Between oil and gold buy silver. The other way to invest in oil is to buy sugar as everybody is converting a lot of sugar into energy.
Silver is so much cheaper on a historic basis. And gold is near its all-time high. Silver is 75% below its all-time high. So, I would suspect that silver and cotton are going to do better than gold and oil.
Global population is close to its peak and genetically-modified crops will increase productivity. What makes you so bullish on agriculture?
It doesn't matter. The world has been consuming more than it produced. Food inventories are at a multi-decade low. And we haven't had any bad weather. We had isolated cases of droughts and things. That may never happen again. But if it does, the prices of food would go through the roof.
If there is climate change taking place, the best way to participate is through agriculture or through agriculture products. There are many positive things happening. Right now, there is a shortage of everything in agriculture — seeds, fertilisers, tractors, tractor tyres. We have a shortage of farmers because farming has been a horrible business for the past 30 years.
What kind of a market are you witnessing now?
It's a bear market rally. I was going to say I don't think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000.
Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency.
That naturally brings us to the debate on a new international reserve currency
Several countries have raised the issue once again. The US dollar is terribly flawed right now. Something has to be done to the US dollar and something will be done just as something was done about the pound sterling. After World War II, people stopped using the pound sterling and converted to the dollar for many reasons. Something's going to be done about the dollar.
We are much closer to be doing something about it or will be forced to do something about it. India was forced to change in 1991 and the world will be forced to change the currency situation in the foreseeable future.
There is already an underlying fear that this mountain of cash will chase assets and eventually force central banks to mop up liquidity. How do you think this would play out?
I know they all say, 'Don't worry, we will reverse gears and take the excess liquidity out in time.' I don't believe them for a minute. No one has ever done it that way. When central bankers started trying to, it caused so much pain that they quickly reversed or have got rid of that central banker and put somebody else in.
I just don't think they could do it. That's why I am worried about the bond market and the inflation. If all central banks do it together, that's going to lead to higher unemployment, riots in the streets, civil unrests.
Your track record as an investor has been more than impressive. But in todays market can you replicate your performance of the past 20 years?
One can. I probably cannot as I am not spending enough time at it. But it can be done. There are going to be people who we will read about in 20 years having made legendary fortunes starting now. In the 1930s, there were people who built huge fortunes and laid the foundations like Templeton.
He started in the 1930s. He saw opportunities and took advantage. These are people who saw great advantages and opportunities in the 1930s, acted and became fantastic successes. There may be somebody out there now. I don’t know who she is. Maybe she is in Brazil, China or India.
What will you tell a confused fund manager who seeks your advice?
Become a farmer. The world has tens of thousands of hotshot fund managers right now. If I am correct, the financial community is not going to be a great place to be in for the next 30 years. We have many periods in history when financial people were in charge, we had many periods when people who produced real goods were in charge — miners, farmers, etc.
The world, in my view, is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it always has. This may sound strange but it always happens this way. Ten years from now, it may be farmers who will drive the Lamborghinis and the stock brokers will drive tractors or taxis at best.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4610704.cms?prtpage=1
4 Jun 2009, 0005 hrs IST, ET Bureau
Even if you are outright bearish, don't short the market. Stocks could touch crazy levels, but they may be in currencies which are worthless.
Indeed, a sovereign default and currency turmoil could rattle world markets in a year or two. In a chat with ET, global investor Jim Rogers says cotton, silver and sugar can be hot picks. Read on.
At one stage we were inundated with gloomy forecasts, which were further reinforced by the IMF and World Bank. And then suddenly stocks surged — something most were not prepared for. How risky is the market today?
Central banks all over the world have printed huge amounts of money, and the real economy is not strong enough for all this money to be absorbed... so, it's going into stocks and real assets such as commodities. It's a mistake what they are doing. It's giving short-term pleasure, but there's long-term pain as we are going to have much higher inflation, much higher interest rates and a worse economy down the road.
The American bond market is already beginning to go down dramatically as people realise that the American government has to sell huge amount of bonds, and secondly, there is going to be inflation, serious inflation, as it was always in the past when you had governments printing huge amounts of money.
Stocks are rising even as fiscal deficit is widening. Somewhere it has to snap...
It's going to snap. Later this year, next year, we are going to have currency problems, maybe even a currency crisis. I don't know with which currency — maybe with the pound sterling, maybe with the US dollar, who knows. It maybe with something none of us have at the moment. When you have a currency crisis, stocks will be affected, many things will be affected. It is not sound, what's happening out there in the world.
In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end.
They are doing many of the same mistakes now. What's different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time.
What do you do? No politically-elected government can afford so much pain, unemployment and hardships...
America could have. America just had an election. The guy was elected in November and he could have come in the beginning of a four-year term and said the guys before me were hopeless idiots. They ruined things. We have to solve this problem. We have to take some pains now. But don't worry, we will get through this pain, and in two to three years or four years, things would be fine. And he could have been re-elected.
If the pain comes in 2010, 2011 or 2012, there will be nobody he can blame. Especially, if things go bad later, the opposition will say, wait a minute, 2009 looked good. The next guy is going to say you did it... But you are right. It's very difficult for an elected government. You have a newly-elected government in India. Whenever you have a new government they can take some of the pain.
You recently said that you would invest in China and Sri Lanka but not in India. Aren’t you betting on the new government in India?
I was trying to make a point that if anyone wants to invest in this particular part of the world, the best place would be Sri Lanka. Because it looks like the 30-year war is coming to an end.
Throughout history, if you go to a place after the war ends you usually find everything as very cheap, everyone is demoralised, people are just depressed and there are enormous opportunities if you have energy.
In my view, investing in Sri Lanka in May 2009 is probably a better bet than Pakistan, Bangladesh, India or some of the other countries nearby. Let's hope the new Indian government does something. I have heard wonderful things from Indian politicians for 40 years.
And rarely do they produce. It's not the first time that the Congress party has been in the power. If they mean it, India's going to be one of the greatest development stories in the next 20 years. But I don’t know if they mean it.
What kind of reforms?
Why isn't the currency convertible, why isn't foreign capital encouraged, why isn't foreign expertise encouraged, why is it so protectionist? Why are farmers only allowed to own five hectares? India should be the greatest farming nation in the world. You have the soil, the weather, you have everything and yet an Indian farmer can own only five hectares.
How can an Indian farmer compete with a guy in Ireland who can own 1,000 hectares or a guy in Brazil who can own 5,000 hectares? Smart people don't become farmers. Because what's the future? Whenever prices start going up, Indian politicians ban futures trading, as if futures trading makes prices go up. It's the craziest and the most absurd thing in the whole world. Prices go up because there is a reason for prices to go up.
Last year you were buying only Chinese stocks. Why?
The market collapsed in October-November. That's when I bought more Chinese shares. I have not bought any Chinese shares since then. I have not bought shares anywhere in the world since then. My way of participating in what's going on now is to buy commodities.
In my view, commodities are the only place where fundamentals are improving. Farmers can't get loans for fertilisers now, even though inventories of food are the lowest in decades. Nobody can get a loan to open a mine. So, you will have supplies of everything continuing to decline.
What else are you looking at while investing?
There are some industries in India that would do exceedingly well in the next few years, one of which is water. You have a horrible water problem. China also has a horrible water problem. So, I bought water companies in China. There are some great opportunities if America falls off the face of the earth. China is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to solve the agricultural problem.
So, I am buying agricultural stocks and water stocks in China. There are other industries in India which have a great future. I am very bullish on Indian tourism. Wherever I go for speeches around the world I tell people, if you have to go to one country in your lifetime, you should go to India.
Your government is going to re-build the military, they say. So, there's going to be great opportunities here. Also, they may build the infrastructure. So, I see many opportunities in India.
The possibility of a sovereign default in the developed world could further depress sentiments. You think it’s possible?
In 1918, the UK was the richest and the most powerful country in the world. Within one generation it was in shambles, within two-and-a-half generations it defaulted. The UK defaulted in 1970s and had to be bailed out by the IMF. Many of the countries in the developed world are in serious trouble right now.
Iceland has already defaulted. I think there could be a currency crisis because of sovereign debt problems later this year, next year or 2011. Developed nations have defaulted before. Remember the Asian crisis. It was a default of one kind or the other. It has happened before and it will happen again.
Are you worried about any particular market or region?
I am glad that I have no investments in the UK. Neither long, nor short. I am convinced that it’s in trouble. I am worried about the US. I have sold nearly all of my US dollars. I always had some as I am an American citizen. But I see serious problems developing there. Those two of the big developed countries are the ones that I see with the most likely problems.
But the problem is that it never works that way. Everybody is sitting here watching the UK and US and it may happen in say Portugal or some place we haven’t thought of and it will come suddenly to surprise us all.
If US unemployment touches the 10%-mark, it would further impact retail sales. How bad could this be for Asia?
Let's pick on China for a minute. If you sell to Wal-Mart in the US and if you are a Chinese supplier you know there is a problem. And you are going to be suffering. Any company that deals with the West is going to have problems. On the other hand, companies that are in the water-treatment business in Asia will care less if the West disappears. They are too busy making money, too busy going to work everyday.
What kind of commodities will smart money chase? Can money be made in crude?
I own gold but think silver is better right now. Natural gas is cheaper than oil right now, but I own them all. If you want to buy crude, you should probably buy cotton. Because all farmers in the US are planting corn to turn into energy. That means they are not going to plant any cotton. The best way to play crude oil is to buy cotton.
Right now, there are huge subsidies around the world for farmers to plant corn, maize, for instance, so that they can be converted into energy. If energy prices go higher, there will be even more of that.
If everybody plants his fields with soya, corn or palm oil to turn it into oil or energy then no one is going to plant cotton.
And you can make a lot more money in cotton than oil. Between oil and gold, buy cotton. Between oil and gold buy silver. The other way to invest in oil is to buy sugar as everybody is converting a lot of sugar into energy.
Silver is so much cheaper on a historic basis. And gold is near its all-time high. Silver is 75% below its all-time high. So, I would suspect that silver and cotton are going to do better than gold and oil.
Global population is close to its peak and genetically-modified crops will increase productivity. What makes you so bullish on agriculture?
It doesn't matter. The world has been consuming more than it produced. Food inventories are at a multi-decade low. And we haven't had any bad weather. We had isolated cases of droughts and things. That may never happen again. But if it does, the prices of food would go through the roof.
If there is climate change taking place, the best way to participate is through agriculture or through agriculture products. There are many positive things happening. Right now, there is a shortage of everything in agriculture — seeds, fertilisers, tractors, tractor tyres. We have a shortage of farmers because farming has been a horrible business for the past 30 years.
What kind of a market are you witnessing now?
It's a bear market rally. I was going to say I don't think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000.
Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency.
That naturally brings us to the debate on a new international reserve currency
Several countries have raised the issue once again. The US dollar is terribly flawed right now. Something has to be done to the US dollar and something will be done just as something was done about the pound sterling. After World War II, people stopped using the pound sterling and converted to the dollar for many reasons. Something's going to be done about the dollar.
We are much closer to be doing something about it or will be forced to do something about it. India was forced to change in 1991 and the world will be forced to change the currency situation in the foreseeable future.
There is already an underlying fear that this mountain of cash will chase assets and eventually force central banks to mop up liquidity. How do you think this would play out?
I know they all say, 'Don't worry, we will reverse gears and take the excess liquidity out in time.' I don't believe them for a minute. No one has ever done it that way. When central bankers started trying to, it caused so much pain that they quickly reversed or have got rid of that central banker and put somebody else in.
I just don't think they could do it. That's why I am worried about the bond market and the inflation. If all central banks do it together, that's going to lead to higher unemployment, riots in the streets, civil unrests.
Your track record as an investor has been more than impressive. But in todays market can you replicate your performance of the past 20 years?
One can. I probably cannot as I am not spending enough time at it. But it can be done. There are going to be people who we will read about in 20 years having made legendary fortunes starting now. In the 1930s, there were people who built huge fortunes and laid the foundations like Templeton.
He started in the 1930s. He saw opportunities and took advantage. These are people who saw great advantages and opportunities in the 1930s, acted and became fantastic successes. There may be somebody out there now. I don’t know who she is. Maybe she is in Brazil, China or India.
What will you tell a confused fund manager who seeks your advice?
Become a farmer. The world has tens of thousands of hotshot fund managers right now. If I am correct, the financial community is not going to be a great place to be in for the next 30 years. We have many periods in history when financial people were in charge, we had many periods when people who produced real goods were in charge — miners, farmers, etc.
The world, in my view, is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it always has. This may sound strange but it always happens this way. Ten years from now, it may be farmers who will drive the Lamborghinis and the stock brokers will drive tractors or taxis at best.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4610704.cms?prtpage=1
Monday, March 16, 2009
Rogers Says `Plenty of Reasons' to Bet Against JPMorgan
Rogers Says `Plenty of Reasons' to Bet Against JPMorgan
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt about the outlook for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and his investment strategy.
Rogers, speaking from Singapore, also discusses agricultural commodities, U.S. Treasuries and this weekend's meeting of the finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Sees stocks in bear market rally, stimulus
01:35 Wen's comments and concerns about U.S. debt
02:04 Dollar, yen in "artificial rallies"; strategy
03:11 Commodities, gold, silver strategy, IMF sale
04:51 Sees interest rates "going through the roof"
05:23 U.S. banks, shorting JPMorgan; insurance
07:03 G-20 meeting "not going to change anything"
07:44 Favors agricultural commodities, inventories
Running time 08:47
Last Updated: March 13, 2009 06:56 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2zGfB0HYwSc
16/02/2009
Jim is shorting JP Morgan. He said: "Their off-balance-sheet derivative positions are among the top three in the world, if not the largest. The bank’s credit-card loans also are a disaster waiting to happen." Stock may rally as it has gone down so much. But it is a bear rally, which is the conventional wisdom today.
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt about the outlook for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and his investment strategy.
Rogers, speaking from Singapore, also discusses agricultural commodities, U.S. Treasuries and this weekend's meeting of the finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Sees stocks in bear market rally, stimulus
01:35 Wen's comments and concerns about U.S. debt
02:04 Dollar, yen in "artificial rallies"; strategy
03:11 Commodities, gold, silver strategy, IMF sale
04:51 Sees interest rates "going through the roof"
05:23 U.S. banks, shorting JPMorgan; insurance
07:03 G-20 meeting "not going to change anything"
07:44 Favors agricultural commodities, inventories
Running time 08:47
Last Updated: March 13, 2009 06:56 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2zGfB0HYwSc
16/02/2009
Jim is shorting JP Morgan. He said: "Their off-balance-sheet derivative positions are among the top three in the world, if not the largest. The bank’s credit-card loans also are a disaster waiting to happen." Stock may rally as it has gone down so much. But it is a bear rally, which is the conventional wisdom today.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Last Modified: 03 Mar 2009
By: Faisal Islam
Jim Rogers, the co-founder of the hedge fund, the Quantum Fund, talks to Faisal Islam about the world economic downturn.
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Speaking exclusively to Channel 4 News, Jim Rogers says politicians could be leading us into another Great Depression.
One of the world's leading financiers has called the economic rescue plans being put forward by Gordon Brown and President Obama, ludicrous and insane.
He has been called a Wall Street legend for his investment nous. Now he sees a fundamental shift of power from the west to east. Our economics correspondent Faisal Islam reports.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/interview+jim+rogers/3009962
Last Modified: 03 Mar 2009
By: Faisal Islam
Jim Rogers, the co-founder of the hedge fund, the Quantum Fund, talks to Faisal Islam about the world economic downturn.
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Speaking exclusively to Channel 4 News, Jim Rogers says politicians could be leading us into another Great Depression.
One of the world's leading financiers has called the economic rescue plans being put forward by Gordon Brown and President Obama, ludicrous and insane.
He has been called a Wall Street legend for his investment nous. Now he sees a fundamental shift of power from the west to east. Our economics correspondent Faisal Islam reports.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/interview+jim+rogers/3009962
Jim Rogers: U.S. stocks have yet to hit bottom
Jim Rogers: U.S. stocks have yet to hit bottom
Tue Mar 3, 2009 4:16pm EST
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, the investor who had co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, on Tuesday said U.S. stocks have yet to hit their bottom in this bear market, saying there could be no lasting rally until the economy recovers.
Rogers said he is unsure where to invest, although he likely will sell the U.S. dollar -- which he called "terribly flawed" -- and buy commodities. He was one of the earliest investors to predict the boom in commodities in recent years,
He told Reuters that efforts to pull the economy out of a steep downturn will not drive a lasting recovery because the government is propping up failing businesses and not allowing them to go bankrupt.
"None of which does much for the economy down the road. It's trying to postpone some pain we're going to have to take," he said in an interview from Singapore, where he lives.
Rogers said Japan tried fiscal stimulus to no avail, while countries that bit the bullet --such as Mexico after the peso crisis and Sweden after its bank crisis, both in the 1990s -- bounced back and did not prolong an economic morass.
U.S. stocks may rally because of the enormous amount of money the government is pumping into the U.S. economy, but "it's not going to last," Rogers said.
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom. The economy is going to get worse. You can't have a good stock market without a good economy," he said.
Rogers, who has railed at U.S. government efforts to stabilize the financial sector, said there will be a currency crisis in 2009 or 2010 that will "cause all sorts of turmoil and opportunities and losses."
"I want to get out of the U.S. dollar sometime this year, at least I plan to, because it's a terribly flawed currency," he said.
Meanwhile, Rogers is pondering his next investment decision.
"I don't know where I'm going to wind up putting my money. But at the moment I'm doing nothing but watching," he said. "I may just have to wind up putting it all in commodities because commodities are the only thing (whose) fundamentals are being enhanced."
Rogers rose to fame after co-founding the now-closed Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund returned 4,200 percent over that decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5226B120090303
05/03/2009 tjhinkh:
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom.
You can't have a good stock market without a good economy
Currency crisis in 2009 or 2010. Plan to get out of USD. Not sure to where maybe all commodities
Tue Mar 3, 2009 4:16pm EST
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, the investor who had co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, on Tuesday said U.S. stocks have yet to hit their bottom in this bear market, saying there could be no lasting rally until the economy recovers.
Rogers said he is unsure where to invest, although he likely will sell the U.S. dollar -- which he called "terribly flawed" -- and buy commodities. He was one of the earliest investors to predict the boom in commodities in recent years,
He told Reuters that efforts to pull the economy out of a steep downturn will not drive a lasting recovery because the government is propping up failing businesses and not allowing them to go bankrupt.
"None of which does much for the economy down the road. It's trying to postpone some pain we're going to have to take," he said in an interview from Singapore, where he lives.
Rogers said Japan tried fiscal stimulus to no avail, while countries that bit the bullet --such as Mexico after the peso crisis and Sweden after its bank crisis, both in the 1990s -- bounced back and did not prolong an economic morass.
U.S. stocks may rally because of the enormous amount of money the government is pumping into the U.S. economy, but "it's not going to last," Rogers said.
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom. The economy is going to get worse. You can't have a good stock market without a good economy," he said.
Rogers, who has railed at U.S. government efforts to stabilize the financial sector, said there will be a currency crisis in 2009 or 2010 that will "cause all sorts of turmoil and opportunities and losses."
"I want to get out of the U.S. dollar sometime this year, at least I plan to, because it's a terribly flawed currency," he said.
Meanwhile, Rogers is pondering his next investment decision.
"I don't know where I'm going to wind up putting my money. But at the moment I'm doing nothing but watching," he said. "I may just have to wind up putting it all in commodities because commodities are the only thing (whose) fundamentals are being enhanced."
Rogers rose to fame after co-founding the now-closed Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund returned 4,200 percent over that decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5226B120090303
05/03/2009 tjhinkh:
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom.
You can't have a good stock market without a good economy
Currency crisis in 2009 or 2010. Plan to get out of USD. Not sure to where maybe all commodities
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Jim Rogers on Russia
Jim Rogers on Russia
February 5:
Thanks very much for giving us your time, first of all and welcome to Russia. You have made some investments in China because the government is planning big stimulus plan there, what are you making of what Russia`s doing, do you se anything interesting here in Russia that you`re investing in?
In October, November I did buy more Chinese stocks but I am not buying shares in any other country in the world right now, because most of the world is in serious trouble including China, don`t get me wrong, but I not investing anywhere and certainly not investing in Russia.
Certainly not, why?
Well, I am certainly not investing in America either, for that matter and certainly not in the UK but no, the Russians have lots of problems, deep seated problems as far as I am concerned, perhaps there`s a chance Russia will continue to disintegrate in more than one country. There are lots of potencial problems in the former soviet union.
Desintegrate, you mean, into separate countries?
The soviet union broke up into 15 countries, Russia itself has the potential to continue to break up, the Ukraine may break up Kazakisthan could break up, this is still not stable and every empire has disintegrated through out history. The reverberations have gone on for long periods of time. So I am sure there`s goods investment in Russia if you`re on the ground and you can stay with them, but not for me.
What in your opinion is Russia doing right and what is Russia doing wrong in handling this crisis?
Well, what they`re doing wrong is that they are propping up their banks which I find reprehensible I find bad economics and bad morality as well, the way the system is supposed to work is suppose you take the assets from the incompetent and give them to the competent and you start over from a stronger base. Well the rusians are making the same mistakes that the british and the Americans and everybody else is making. But taking the assets from the competent and giving them to the incompetent and know thy can compete with the competent, it weakens the whole system. Putin at least seems to understand that there is a problem with the US dollar, that the world needs to adjust to that problem, he seems to understand some of the problems the world faces better than we do in America, but for the most part the Russians are making mistakes too.
You said the Pound is finished, what is your take on the ruble?
Ahhh, the ruble. That`s a very good question. I am not sure, even is I had an answer I am not sure I would give it to you. No I am not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all. The Russian at least have natural resources to some extend but I am not optimistic about the continuing stability of Russia. The natural resources, the reserves are declining as you know, because they have been stripping the assets here in Russia for some time. Oil production peaked, production of most things peaked in Russia for the foreseeable future, so I am not buying the ruble either.
The Government announced that it would defend the ruble at 41 against the Euro / Dollar basket. Was that a mistake to announce a target?
It always as been in the past the market has learned in the last few sessions that you can always bet against the central banks and you will make money eventually. S when a central bank says “don`t you worry the pound is going to stay here or the ruble is going to stay here or whatever, ultimately that has always failed if the fi«undamentals are not sound and will fail again, everybody knows what the target is.
What is driving the fall of the ruble? Is it regular people panicking and putting their money into dollars, that one thing we`ve heard from bankers here at this forum, or is speculation?
Its mainly the Russians, in fact whenever a currency fails through out history it has always started internally, the foreigners always get the blame because the politians like to blame all their problems on the foreigners, because they don`t vote and their not there. Right now I think there something like 20 or 25% of deposits in banks in Russia in foreign currencies by Russian and not by foreigners. So its always starts with the local people, because local people always know best what`s going wrong and they start moving out. The speculators, historically always show in later.
So there are russian speculators that may be involved here too, or is this just the average bank depositor moving their money into dollars out of concern?
It seems pretty obvious that its intelligent people making intelligent decisions with their money, they can see there`s going to be problems with the rouble so they, intelligent russians have been moving out of the ruble. The rouble is down 50 or 60% in the last few moths, or in the last year or so.
The Central Bank said today that they won`t have to spill much blood to defend the ruble at 41, do you believe them?
I don`t believe in any central bank no matter what they say. The few times central banks have been right at something, you can count them with one hand. If you get your investment advice from central banks or governments you are going to go broke fast, don`t listen to those people.
Are you short the ruble?
I am not doing anything with the ruble, not right now. But knowing that the central bank drew a line in the sand it makes me stand up and take a little more notice about the ruble. So I will star thinking more about it.
Latest Jim Rogers interview. Jim Rogers went to Russia to participate in the The Russia Forum 2009 and spoke about stock markets around the world, the ruble devaluation, the us dollar and the mistakes Russia is making.
Jim is not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all.
Jim Rogers expects several currency crisis this year and that will be major opportunities in the currency markets. The next great currency to buy mught be the Brazilian Real or the Malaysian currency. Jim Rogers has been tranding forex markets for several decades and is a voice to be heard on this subject.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-russia-forum-2009-full.html
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-video-interview-russia-forum.html
11/02/2009
tjhinkh: Russia central bankhas drawn a line in the sand and whenever a central bank draw a line, it has never work. This is because the market is larger than the central bank.
Sometime this year or next, there may be serious currency problems as the US and UK has too much debt. Jim is not sure what is the next stable currency. Maybe Brazil Real, maybe Malaysia Ringgit.
February 5:
Thanks very much for giving us your time, first of all and welcome to Russia. You have made some investments in China because the government is planning big stimulus plan there, what are you making of what Russia`s doing, do you se anything interesting here in Russia that you`re investing in?
In October, November I did buy more Chinese stocks but I am not buying shares in any other country in the world right now, because most of the world is in serious trouble including China, don`t get me wrong, but I not investing anywhere and certainly not investing in Russia.
Certainly not, why?
Well, I am certainly not investing in America either, for that matter and certainly not in the UK but no, the Russians have lots of problems, deep seated problems as far as I am concerned, perhaps there`s a chance Russia will continue to disintegrate in more than one country. There are lots of potencial problems in the former soviet union.
Desintegrate, you mean, into separate countries?
The soviet union broke up into 15 countries, Russia itself has the potential to continue to break up, the Ukraine may break up Kazakisthan could break up, this is still not stable and every empire has disintegrated through out history. The reverberations have gone on for long periods of time. So I am sure there`s goods investment in Russia if you`re on the ground and you can stay with them, but not for me.
What in your opinion is Russia doing right and what is Russia doing wrong in handling this crisis?
Well, what they`re doing wrong is that they are propping up their banks which I find reprehensible I find bad economics and bad morality as well, the way the system is supposed to work is suppose you take the assets from the incompetent and give them to the competent and you start over from a stronger base. Well the rusians are making the same mistakes that the british and the Americans and everybody else is making. But taking the assets from the competent and giving them to the incompetent and know thy can compete with the competent, it weakens the whole system. Putin at least seems to understand that there is a problem with the US dollar, that the world needs to adjust to that problem, he seems to understand some of the problems the world faces better than we do in America, but for the most part the Russians are making mistakes too.
You said the Pound is finished, what is your take on the ruble?
Ahhh, the ruble. That`s a very good question. I am not sure, even is I had an answer I am not sure I would give it to you. No I am not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all. The Russian at least have natural resources to some extend but I am not optimistic about the continuing stability of Russia. The natural resources, the reserves are declining as you know, because they have been stripping the assets here in Russia for some time. Oil production peaked, production of most things peaked in Russia for the foreseeable future, so I am not buying the ruble either.
The Government announced that it would defend the ruble at 41 against the Euro / Dollar basket. Was that a mistake to announce a target?
It always as been in the past the market has learned in the last few sessions that you can always bet against the central banks and you will make money eventually. S when a central bank says “don`t you worry the pound is going to stay here or the ruble is going to stay here or whatever, ultimately that has always failed if the fi«undamentals are not sound and will fail again, everybody knows what the target is.
What is driving the fall of the ruble? Is it regular people panicking and putting their money into dollars, that one thing we`ve heard from bankers here at this forum, or is speculation?
Its mainly the Russians, in fact whenever a currency fails through out history it has always started internally, the foreigners always get the blame because the politians like to blame all their problems on the foreigners, because they don`t vote and their not there. Right now I think there something like 20 or 25% of deposits in banks in Russia in foreign currencies by Russian and not by foreigners. So its always starts with the local people, because local people always know best what`s going wrong and they start moving out. The speculators, historically always show in later.
So there are russian speculators that may be involved here too, or is this just the average bank depositor moving their money into dollars out of concern?
It seems pretty obvious that its intelligent people making intelligent decisions with their money, they can see there`s going to be problems with the rouble so they, intelligent russians have been moving out of the ruble. The rouble is down 50 or 60% in the last few moths, or in the last year or so.
The Central Bank said today that they won`t have to spill much blood to defend the ruble at 41, do you believe them?
I don`t believe in any central bank no matter what they say. The few times central banks have been right at something, you can count them with one hand. If you get your investment advice from central banks or governments you are going to go broke fast, don`t listen to those people.
Are you short the ruble?
I am not doing anything with the ruble, not right now. But knowing that the central bank drew a line in the sand it makes me stand up and take a little more notice about the ruble. So I will star thinking more about it.
Latest Jim Rogers interview. Jim Rogers went to Russia to participate in the The Russia Forum 2009 and spoke about stock markets around the world, the ruble devaluation, the us dollar and the mistakes Russia is making.
Jim is not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all.
Jim Rogers expects several currency crisis this year and that will be major opportunities in the currency markets. The next great currency to buy mught be the Brazilian Real or the Malaysian currency. Jim Rogers has been tranding forex markets for several decades and is a voice to be heard on this subject.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-russia-forum-2009-full.html
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-video-interview-russia-forum.html
11/02/2009
tjhinkh: Russia central bankhas drawn a line in the sand and whenever a central bank draw a line, it has never work. This is because the market is larger than the central bank.
Sometime this year or next, there may be serious currency problems as the US and UK has too much debt. Jim is not sure what is the next stable currency. Maybe Brazil Real, maybe Malaysia Ringgit.
Banks Rescue Will 'Make Things Worse': Rogers
Banks Rescue Will 'Make Things Worse': Rogers
10 Feb 2009 | 04:21 AM ET
The new financial rescue plan may not work and could even make things worse because it plunges the US further into debt and it is designed by the same people who failed to forecast the crisis and take measures, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Tuesday.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will unveil a long-awaited package of measures to help the financial sector at 11 am New York time.
But Rogers said Geithner, who was president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, "has been dead wrong about everything for 15 years in a row," and so was President Barack Obama's economic advisor Lawrence Summers, who acted as Treasury Secretary at the turn of the century.
"It is mind-boggling to me," Rogers told "Squawk Box Europe."
"If I were on your show 15 weeks in a row and was wrong, you'd probably never invite me back. These guys have been wrong year after year after year consistently and here they are making the same mistakes again. This is not going to solve the problem, it's going to make it worse."
He said he was not contemplating investing into financials, as bankruptcies were still possible, and banks were still trying to find out how affected they were by the crisis.
"What's happening is they've all panicked, cutting back everything, trying to see what they've got," Rogers said.
Big companies such as AIG or Fannie Mae as well as other US banks don't know how to value their assets, he said.
"Everybody is frozen, trying to figure out ok, what are we worth, what do we do?"
In addition, the recent shifts towards protectionism are harmful, Rogers warned.
"This is very dangerous, that's what caused the great depression in the 1930s. If it happens again, then you'd better sell all the stocks, you'd better sell a lot of everything and bunker down," he said.
"We already have a lot of social unrest developing. If protectionism comes back, you'd better be really, really careful," Rogers added.
© 2009 CNBC.com
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29114947/
11/02/2009
tjhinkh: Central bank all over the world are printing money as fast as they can. This has never happen before in history. Throughout history, we know when local central bank print money, it lead to inflation. So Jim 'knows' (that is his exact word) that there will be serious inflation down the road. Because of this, Jim periodically buy gold.
IMF may sell gold to rescue everybody else. Gold may go down. Jim thinks that this would be the bottom for gold. He hope that that the IMF would do that and when it does not have enough money, it will be dissolved.
May not see new mine open in 10-15 years.
Still holding to USD. He suspect that he will sell them by this year.
10 Feb 2009 | 04:21 AM ET
The new financial rescue plan may not work and could even make things worse because it plunges the US further into debt and it is designed by the same people who failed to forecast the crisis and take measures, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Tuesday.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will unveil a long-awaited package of measures to help the financial sector at 11 am New York time.
But Rogers said Geithner, who was president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, "has been dead wrong about everything for 15 years in a row," and so was President Barack Obama's economic advisor Lawrence Summers, who acted as Treasury Secretary at the turn of the century.
"It is mind-boggling to me," Rogers told "Squawk Box Europe."
"If I were on your show 15 weeks in a row and was wrong, you'd probably never invite me back. These guys have been wrong year after year after year consistently and here they are making the same mistakes again. This is not going to solve the problem, it's going to make it worse."
He said he was not contemplating investing into financials, as bankruptcies were still possible, and banks were still trying to find out how affected they were by the crisis.
"What's happening is they've all panicked, cutting back everything, trying to see what they've got," Rogers said.
Big companies such as AIG or Fannie Mae as well as other US banks don't know how to value their assets, he said.
"Everybody is frozen, trying to figure out ok, what are we worth, what do we do?"
In addition, the recent shifts towards protectionism are harmful, Rogers warned.
"This is very dangerous, that's what caused the great depression in the 1930s. If it happens again, then you'd better sell all the stocks, you'd better sell a lot of everything and bunker down," he said.
"We already have a lot of social unrest developing. If protectionism comes back, you'd better be really, really careful," Rogers added.
© 2009 CNBC.com
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29114947/
11/02/2009
tjhinkh: Central bank all over the world are printing money as fast as they can. This has never happen before in history. Throughout history, we know when local central bank print money, it lead to inflation. So Jim 'knows' (that is his exact word) that there will be serious inflation down the road. Because of this, Jim periodically buy gold.
IMF may sell gold to rescue everybody else. Gold may go down. Jim thinks that this would be the bottom for gold. He hope that that the IMF would do that and when it does not have enough money, it will be dissolved.
May not see new mine open in 10-15 years.
Still holding to USD. He suspect that he will sell them by this year.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Despite crisis, Jim Rogers is still a China bull
Despite crisis, Jim Rogers is still a China bull
Mon Jan 19, 2009 10:35am GMT
HONG KONG, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The global financial crisis has only strengthened reknowned international investor Jim Rogers' acerbic criticisms about the U.S. economy and his resoundingly optimistic view on China's future.
Rogers, co-founder along George Soros of the Quantum Fund, railed at the Federal Reserve and incoming U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, while also saying the high saving rate and solid fundamentals in China make it a powerful force to be reckoned with.
"This is going to be the new centre of the world, not just the financial but the political world," he said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.
Rogers, who is now an independent investor living in Singapore, said he was going to use the U.S. dollar rally in the last six months to get out of all his investments in dollar-denominated assets and keep buying Chinese equities, the Japanese yen and commodities.
He said his bets against U.S. investment banks, the two largest U.S. mortgage providers Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and the yen kept his portfolio in the positive last year, but the rest of his investments suffered.
He accused U.S. authorities of consciously trying to devalue the U.S. dollar by flooding the market with liquidity -- or in his words, "turning on the printing presses" -- and said anyone chasing the rally in government bonds is making a "terrible mistake."
"The idea that you can fix a period of excess borrowing and excess consumption by more borrowing and more consumption to me is just ludicrous," he said.
Underscoring his convictions, Rogers began his speech by showing pictures of his two young children, both of whom he said have Swiss bank accounts and speak Mandarin.
The Quantum Fund shot to fame after making more than $1 billion betting against the British pound in early 1990s. (Reporting by Kevin Plumberg; Editing by Lincoln Feast)
http://uk.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=UKHKG31545820090119
tjhinkh 20/01/2009
"This is going to be the new centre of the world, not just the financial but the political world," he said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.
Mon Jan 19, 2009 10:35am GMT
HONG KONG, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The global financial crisis has only strengthened reknowned international investor Jim Rogers' acerbic criticisms about the U.S. economy and his resoundingly optimistic view on China's future.
Rogers, co-founder along George Soros of the Quantum Fund, railed at the Federal Reserve and incoming U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, while also saying the high saving rate and solid fundamentals in China make it a powerful force to be reckoned with.
"This is going to be the new centre of the world, not just the financial but the political world," he said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.
Rogers, who is now an independent investor living in Singapore, said he was going to use the U.S. dollar rally in the last six months to get out of all his investments in dollar-denominated assets and keep buying Chinese equities, the Japanese yen and commodities.
He said his bets against U.S. investment banks, the two largest U.S. mortgage providers Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and the yen kept his portfolio in the positive last year, but the rest of his investments suffered.
He accused U.S. authorities of consciously trying to devalue the U.S. dollar by flooding the market with liquidity -- or in his words, "turning on the printing presses" -- and said anyone chasing the rally in government bonds is making a "terrible mistake."
"The idea that you can fix a period of excess borrowing and excess consumption by more borrowing and more consumption to me is just ludicrous," he said.
Underscoring his convictions, Rogers began his speech by showing pictures of his two young children, both of whom he said have Swiss bank accounts and speak Mandarin.
The Quantum Fund shot to fame after making more than $1 billion betting against the British pound in early 1990s. (Reporting by Kevin Plumberg; Editing by Lincoln Feast)
http://uk.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=UKHKG31545820090119
tjhinkh 20/01/2009
"This is going to be the new centre of the world, not just the financial but the political world," he said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Jim Rogers: US creditor nations to shun Treasuries
Jim Rogers: US creditor nations to shun Treasuries
Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:34am EST
NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, a prominent international investor, on Monday predicted that many creditor nations could start shunning U.S. assets, particularly Treasuries, as the economic crisis lingers on.
"If I were the Chinese, I wouldn't buy another single U.S. government bond," said Rogers, who was speaking by teleconference in an interview with Reuters. "I can't imagine anybody is going to give the U.S. government money for 30 years at 2.5 percent or even 4 percent or 4.5 percent. It's mind boggling to me."
China in 2008 became the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing Japan.
Prices of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds appear dangerously overstretched after a soaring rally, which began soon after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which was trading over 5 percent in June 2007, hit a five-decade low of around 2 percent in mid-December. Currently, the yield on the 10-year note is around 2.43 percent.
"All the big creditors are going to be slowly cutting back ...more and more diversification against and away from the U.S. dollar -- and away from long-term bonds," Rogers added. (Reporting by Dan Burns and Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1248477420090112
Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:34am EST
NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, a prominent international investor, on Monday predicted that many creditor nations could start shunning U.S. assets, particularly Treasuries, as the economic crisis lingers on.
"If I were the Chinese, I wouldn't buy another single U.S. government bond," said Rogers, who was speaking by teleconference in an interview with Reuters. "I can't imagine anybody is going to give the U.S. government money for 30 years at 2.5 percent or even 4 percent or 4.5 percent. It's mind boggling to me."
China in 2008 became the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing Japan.
Prices of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds appear dangerously overstretched after a soaring rally, which began soon after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which was trading over 5 percent in June 2007, hit a five-decade low of around 2 percent in mid-December. Currently, the yield on the 10-year note is around 2.43 percent.
"All the big creditors are going to be slowly cutting back ...more and more diversification against and away from the U.S. dollar -- and away from long-term bonds," Rogers added. (Reporting by Dan Burns and Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1248477420090112
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Rogers Says He’s Buying China Shares in Hong Kong, Singapore
Rogers Says He’s Buying China Shares in Hong Kong, Singapore
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he’s been buying shares of Chinese companies even as growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy slows.
Rogers started buying Chinese shares in 1988 and is now favoring equities traded in Hong Kong and Singapore that are cheaper than yuan-denominated stock in Shanghai.
China is slowing but “some parts of the Chinese economy will be totally unaffected by what happens in the West,” Rogers said in an interview in Hong Kong. “I started buying in October again. I never sold any Chinese shares.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ai3In.fKJtSM&refer=home
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he’s been buying shares of Chinese companies even as growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy slows.
Rogers started buying Chinese shares in 1988 and is now favoring equities traded in Hong Kong and Singapore that are cheaper than yuan-denominated stock in Shanghai.
China is slowing but “some parts of the Chinese economy will be totally unaffected by what happens in the West,” Rogers said in an interview in Hong Kong. “I started buying in October again. I never sold any Chinese shares.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ai3In.fKJtSM&refer=home
Monday, December 29, 2008
Jim Rogers calls bottom for the airlines sector
Jim Rogers calls bottom for the airlines sector
Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:40pm EST
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, one of the world's best known investors, has said the world's publicly listed airlines may have reached a bottom after a prolonged struggle against high oil prices and the economic downturn.
Launching a new airline stock index with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Rogers said the volume of airline bankruptcies, lower capacity and falling oil prices could see more prominent carriers prosper.
"The airline industry has been a nightmare for several years now, with dozens of airlines going bankrupt ... That is often the sign of a bottom," he said in a statement.
"Capacity is shrinking at some airlines, while there will always be demand for seats. Many managements have now learned the lessons of the past decades," he added.
The Rogers Airlines Index will be composed of 20 global airline stocks.
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USLF27345620081215
Mon Dec 15, 2008 12:40pm EST
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, one of the world's best known investors, has said the world's publicly listed airlines may have reached a bottom after a prolonged struggle against high oil prices and the economic downturn.
Launching a new airline stock index with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Rogers said the volume of airline bankruptcies, lower capacity and falling oil prices could see more prominent carriers prosper.
"The airline industry has been a nightmare for several years now, with dozens of airlines going bankrupt ... That is often the sign of a bottom," he said in a statement.
"Capacity is shrinking at some airlines, while there will always be demand for seats. Many managements have now learned the lessons of the past decades," he added.
The Rogers Airlines Index will be composed of 20 global airline stocks.
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USLF27345620081215
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Rogers buys oil last week as price drops
Rogers buys oil last week as price drops
Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:49pm EST
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned commodities investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday that he bought oil last week as crude prices collapsed to near four-year lows and that the world is running out of known oil reserves.
Rogers told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York that he also closed his bets against the U.S. stock market in October, and plans to use the dollar's rally as an opportunity to exit dollar-denominated assets.
Rogers, who spoke via a conference call from Miami, said he is the world's worst market timer and a horrible short-term trader, but a sharp sell-off in oil prices suggested a bottom.
"Oil collapsed last week. Whenever you've had that sort of selling climax throughout any period in history, you are usually well-rewarded to buy it. It may not be the final bottom, but a bottom, so I'm buying oil again," he said.
Rogers, who remains bullish on commodities, estimated known world oil reserves at today's consumption rate are about 16 years, which indicates crude prices will again trend higher.
"We're going to see $200 oil at some point, it may be by 2013. It's a sad fact but the world is running out of known oil," he said.
Many of Rogers's investments reflect a bearish view of the U.S. economy, which he said is poised to enter a period of stagnation, just as Japan suffered during its "lost decade" in the 1990s.
Rogers rose to fame in the investment world as co-founder with George Soros the Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund returned 4,200 percent over the next decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
"We have unbelievable mistakes every week coming out of Washington, just as Japan did in the 1990s, just as America did in the 1930s," he said. "This could turn into a gigantic mess."
Rogers attributed his grim outlook to worries about the size of the U.S. government's growing deficit and the unwillingness on the part of authorities to let banks fail. He said he expected the U.S. economy to be in bad shape for a considerable time.
"I am most worried about the United States and what's going on," said Rogers, who said he is proud to be American but he has serious doubts about the country's future.
Rogers also said he covered most of his bets that the U.S. stock market would decline in October, when "that too felt like a selling climax," he said.
He also said he plans to get out of U.S. securities he's owned for more than two decades if there is a rally soon.
"The market will probably rally for a while into January or March, and then we'll have more problems next year and perhaps into 2010," he said.
"I plan to get out of all of my U.S. dollars at some time throughout this rally. The dollar is a terribly flawed currency, and perhaps a doomed currency," he said.
Rogers said that he is investing on growth areas in China and Taiwan, such as shares in water treatment, tourism and agriculture.
He is bullish on Asia because the region has savers and thus creditor nations.
"This is where the money is, and throughout history the world has moved to where the money is," he said.
"To me it's incomprehensible that people would lend to the United States government for 30 years at 3 or 4 percent," he added.
Rogers sold his New York mansion in December and has been living in Singapore. He is long-term bull on China, where he first traveled on motorcycle in the early 1980s. He again traveled on motorcycle through China and six continents a decade later, a trip that formed his book "Investment Biker."
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA4HD20081211
(Reporting by Herbert Lash, Editing by Tom Hals)
Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:49pm EST
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned commodities investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday that he bought oil last week as crude prices collapsed to near four-year lows and that the world is running out of known oil reserves.
Rogers told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York that he also closed his bets against the U.S. stock market in October, and plans to use the dollar's rally as an opportunity to exit dollar-denominated assets.
Rogers, who spoke via a conference call from Miami, said he is the world's worst market timer and a horrible short-term trader, but a sharp sell-off in oil prices suggested a bottom.
"Oil collapsed last week. Whenever you've had that sort of selling climax throughout any period in history, you are usually well-rewarded to buy it. It may not be the final bottom, but a bottom, so I'm buying oil again," he said.
Rogers, who remains bullish on commodities, estimated known world oil reserves at today's consumption rate are about 16 years, which indicates crude prices will again trend higher.
"We're going to see $200 oil at some point, it may be by 2013. It's a sad fact but the world is running out of known oil," he said.
Many of Rogers's investments reflect a bearish view of the U.S. economy, which he said is poised to enter a period of stagnation, just as Japan suffered during its "lost decade" in the 1990s.
Rogers rose to fame in the investment world as co-founder with George Soros the Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund returned 4,200 percent over the next decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
"We have unbelievable mistakes every week coming out of Washington, just as Japan did in the 1990s, just as America did in the 1930s," he said. "This could turn into a gigantic mess."
Rogers attributed his grim outlook to worries about the size of the U.S. government's growing deficit and the unwillingness on the part of authorities to let banks fail. He said he expected the U.S. economy to be in bad shape for a considerable time.
"I am most worried about the United States and what's going on," said Rogers, who said he is proud to be American but he has serious doubts about the country's future.
Rogers also said he covered most of his bets that the U.S. stock market would decline in October, when "that too felt like a selling climax," he said.
He also said he plans to get out of U.S. securities he's owned for more than two decades if there is a rally soon.
"The market will probably rally for a while into January or March, and then we'll have more problems next year and perhaps into 2010," he said.
"I plan to get out of all of my U.S. dollars at some time throughout this rally. The dollar is a terribly flawed currency, and perhaps a doomed currency," he said.
Rogers said that he is investing on growth areas in China and Taiwan, such as shares in water treatment, tourism and agriculture.
He is bullish on Asia because the region has savers and thus creditor nations.
"This is where the money is, and throughout history the world has moved to where the money is," he said.
"To me it's incomprehensible that people would lend to the United States government for 30 years at 3 or 4 percent," he added.
Rogers sold his New York mansion in December and has been living in Singapore. He is long-term bull on China, where he first traveled on motorcycle in the early 1980s. He again traveled on motorcycle through China and six continents a decade later, a trip that formed his book "Investment Biker."
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA4HD20081211
(Reporting by Herbert Lash, Editing by Tom Hals)
Jim Rogers using rally to exit dollar assets
Jim Rogers using rally to exit dollar assets
Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:08pm EST
By Vivianne Rodrigues
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday he has been using the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar as an opportunity to exit assets denominated in the U.S. currency.
Rogers told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit 2009 in New York that the rally -- which has pushed the greenback up about 20 percent since July -- is a reversal of a "gigantic short position" accumulated over several years and not a result of a fundamental bet. He added the U.S. currency is likely to weaken sharply again.
"I plan to get out of all of my U.S. dollars at some time throughout this rally," he said. "The dollar is a terribly flawed currency, and perhaps a doomed currency."
"I've driven around the world looking for a sound currency. There aren't any.... but the yen is the only thing that's going to go up for a while," he added.
Rogers, who spoke via a conference call from Miami, also noted that economies and currencies in regions such as Central Europe and Russia are particularly vulnerable.
On Thursday, the Russian central bank allowed the fifth one percent devaluation in the rouble against the dollar/euro basket in a month as data showed a $17.9 billion drop in gold and foreign exchange reserves last week.
"Russia is a disaster that is spiraling down to a catastrophe. I wouldn't put a penny of my money into Russia right now," he said.
Rogers said he expects the economic situation to deteriorate not only in Russia but in Central Europe, which in turn may weigh further on the euro zone.
"Central Europe is a giant fiasco -- hundreds of billions of dollars were floated using the Swiss franc and Japanese yen because rates were so low -- You've got some huge huge problems coming out," he said. "Banks there aren't writing them down yet."
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA57K20081211
Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:08pm EST
By Vivianne Rodrigues
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday he has been using the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar as an opportunity to exit assets denominated in the U.S. currency.
Rogers told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit 2009 in New York that the rally -- which has pushed the greenback up about 20 percent since July -- is a reversal of a "gigantic short position" accumulated over several years and not a result of a fundamental bet. He added the U.S. currency is likely to weaken sharply again.
"I plan to get out of all of my U.S. dollars at some time throughout this rally," he said. "The dollar is a terribly flawed currency, and perhaps a doomed currency."
"I've driven around the world looking for a sound currency. There aren't any.... but the yen is the only thing that's going to go up for a while," he added.
Rogers, who spoke via a conference call from Miami, also noted that economies and currencies in regions such as Central Europe and Russia are particularly vulnerable.
On Thursday, the Russian central bank allowed the fifth one percent devaluation in the rouble against the dollar/euro basket in a month as data showed a $17.9 billion drop in gold and foreign exchange reserves last week.
"Russia is a disaster that is spiraling down to a catastrophe. I wouldn't put a penny of my money into Russia right now," he said.
Rogers said he expects the economic situation to deteriorate not only in Russia but in Central Europe, which in turn may weigh further on the euro zone.
"Central Europe is a giant fiasco -- hundreds of billions of dollars were floated using the Swiss franc and Japanese yen because rates were so low -- You've got some huge huge problems coming out," he said. "Banks there aren't writing them down yet."
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA57K20081211
Commodities "horribly" hit, not killed: Rogers
Commodities "horribly" hit, not killed: Rogers
Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:09pm EST
By Barani Krishnan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, the famous investor and author on commodities, said on Thursday the credit crisis has not killed the bull market in commodities as many imagined, but just dealt it a "horrible setback".
"In 1987, we had a horrible decline in the stock market. Do you think that was the end of that bull market?" Rogers asked a panel of journalists at the Reuters Investment Outlook 2009 Summit in New York.
"Remember: Commodities are essentially based on supply and demand. Now, you have demand declining but at the same time you have supply going down even more. So, we are going to have higher prices, eventually," said Rogers, who is also founder of the Rogers International Commodity Index .
The World Bank predicted in a report this week that the commodities boom of the last few years had "come to an end", and that prices of oil to agriculture will not see the record peaks of this July for at least another three years.
Some market participants say the credit crisis has also exposed the flaw in long-only commodities investing advocated by indexes like Rogers' -- where investors are advised to maintain bullish positions in energy, metals and agriculture futures, regardless of market turns, in order to profit.
The Rogers' index is down almost 40 percent on the year, after posting a 30 percent gain till July. Many of its rivals have suffered similarly, leading to suggestions that investors may be better off with strategies that allow them to also "short" - or go bearish on -- commodities when needed.
Rogers said his success as an investor came almost entirely from finding "cheap" investments and holding them for years, if not decades.
"What you do in times like these is you find and buy the things where fundamentals are unimpaired. The only thing good I know where the fundamentals are unimpaired or where they have actually improved are commodities."
"Farmers are not getting loans to buy fertilizer now. Nobody can get a loan for a zinc mine now. All the mines are either closing and the ones still in production are using their reserves. Nobody can make new oil discoveries because prices are so low."
Rogers likened the correction in commodities to the sell-offs that stocks had seen since the 1987 crash. "There were some horrible setbacks along the way. I see this as just one of those horrible setbacks."
U.S. crude oil jumped more than 10 percent to settle at $47.98 a barrel Thursday after the head of producer group OPEC called for "severe" output cuts and non-OPEC member Russia said it may help contribute to the reduction.
Rogers said it could take longer than OPEC expected for crude to return above the $70 level desired by producers.
"It can sell below the cost of production for two or three years. This is not the first time in history that it has sold below the cost of production.
But Rogers, who bought oil for the first time in 10 years last week as prices were more than $100 a barrel below July's record, admitted he was a "horrible market timer".
"The fact that this has only happened in eight or nine times in the last 150 years and the fact that it's historic does not make it any more fun," he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA75H20081211
Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:09pm EST
By Barani Krishnan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, the famous investor and author on commodities, said on Thursday the credit crisis has not killed the bull market in commodities as many imagined, but just dealt it a "horrible setback".
"In 1987, we had a horrible decline in the stock market. Do you think that was the end of that bull market?" Rogers asked a panel of journalists at the Reuters Investment Outlook 2009 Summit in New York.
"Remember: Commodities are essentially based on supply and demand. Now, you have demand declining but at the same time you have supply going down even more. So, we are going to have higher prices, eventually," said Rogers, who is also founder of the Rogers International Commodity Index .
The World Bank predicted in a report this week that the commodities boom of the last few years had "come to an end", and that prices of oil to agriculture will not see the record peaks of this July for at least another three years.
Some market participants say the credit crisis has also exposed the flaw in long-only commodities investing advocated by indexes like Rogers' -- where investors are advised to maintain bullish positions in energy, metals and agriculture futures, regardless of market turns, in order to profit.
The Rogers' index is down almost 40 percent on the year, after posting a 30 percent gain till July. Many of its rivals have suffered similarly, leading to suggestions that investors may be better off with strategies that allow them to also "short" - or go bearish on -- commodities when needed.
Rogers said his success as an investor came almost entirely from finding "cheap" investments and holding them for years, if not decades.
"What you do in times like these is you find and buy the things where fundamentals are unimpaired. The only thing good I know where the fundamentals are unimpaired or where they have actually improved are commodities."
"Farmers are not getting loans to buy fertilizer now. Nobody can get a loan for a zinc mine now. All the mines are either closing and the ones still in production are using their reserves. Nobody can make new oil discoveries because prices are so low."
Rogers likened the correction in commodities to the sell-offs that stocks had seen since the 1987 crash. "There were some horrible setbacks along the way. I see this as just one of those horrible setbacks."
U.S. crude oil jumped more than 10 percent to settle at $47.98 a barrel Thursday after the head of producer group OPEC called for "severe" output cuts and non-OPEC member Russia said it may help contribute to the reduction.
Rogers said it could take longer than OPEC expected for crude to return above the $70 level desired by producers.
"It can sell below the cost of production for two or three years. This is not the first time in history that it has sold below the cost of production.
But Rogers, who bought oil for the first time in 10 years last week as prices were more than $100 a barrel below July's record, admitted he was a "horrible market timer".
"The fact that this has only happened in eight or nine times in the last 150 years and the fact that it's historic does not make it any more fun," he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA75H20081211
Jim Rogers calls most big U.S. banks "bankrupt"
Jim Rogers calls most big U.S. banks "bankrupt"
Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:53pm EST
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, one of the world's most prominent international investors, on Thursday called most of the largest U.S. banks "totally bankrupt," and said government efforts to fix the sector are wrongheaded.
Speaking by teleconference at the Reuters Investment Outlook 2009 Summit, the co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, said the government's $700 billion rescue package for the sector doesn't address how banks manage their balance sheets, and instead rewards weaker lenders with new capital.
Dozens of banks have won infusions from the Troubled Asset Relief Program created in early October, just after the Sept 15 bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEHMQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). Some of the funds are being used for acquisitions.
"Without giving specific names, most of the significant American banks, the larger banks, are bankrupt, totally bankrupt," said Rogers, who is now a private investor.
"What is outrageous economically and is outrageous morally is that normally in times like this, people who are competent and who saw it coming and who kept their powder dry go and take over the assets from the incompetent," he said. "What's happening this time is that the government is taking the assets from the competent people and giving them to the incompetent people and saying, now you can compete with the competent people. It is horrible economics."
Rogers said he shorted shares of Fannie Mae (FNM.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) before the government nationalized the mortgage financiers in September, a week before Lehman failed.
Now a specialist in commodities, Rogers said he has used the recent rally in the U.S. dollar as an opportunity to exit dollar-denominated assets.
While not saying how long the U.S. economic recession will last, he said conditions could ultimately mirror those of Japan in the 1990s. "The way things are going, we're going to have a lost decade too, just like the 1970s," he said.
Goldman Sachs & Co analysts this week estimated that banks worldwide have suffered $850 billion of credit-related losses and writedowns since the global credit crisis began last year.
But Rogers said sound U.S. lenders remain. He said these could include banks that don't make or hold subprime mortgages, or which have high ratios of deposits to equity, "all the classic old ratios that most banks in America forgot or started ignoring because they were too old-fashioned."
Many analysts cite Lehman's Sept 15 bankruptcy as a trigger for the recent cratering in the economy and stock markets.
Rogers called that idea "laughable," noting that banks have been failing for hundreds of years. And yet, he said policymakers aren't doing enough to prevent another Lehman.
"Governments are making mistakes," he said. "They're saying to all the banks, you don't have to tell us your situation. You can continue to use your balance sheet that is phony.... All these guys are bankrupt, they're still worrying about their bonuses, they're still trying to pay their dividends, and the whole system is weakened."
Rogers said is investing in growth areas in China and Taiwan, in such areas as water treatment and agriculture, and recently bought positions in energy and agriculture indexes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA5CO20081211
Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:53pm EST
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, one of the world's most prominent international investors, on Thursday called most of the largest U.S. banks "totally bankrupt," and said government efforts to fix the sector are wrongheaded.
Speaking by teleconference at the Reuters Investment Outlook 2009 Summit, the co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, said the government's $700 billion rescue package for the sector doesn't address how banks manage their balance sheets, and instead rewards weaker lenders with new capital.
Dozens of banks have won infusions from the Troubled Asset Relief Program created in early October, just after the Sept 15 bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEHMQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). Some of the funds are being used for acquisitions.
"Without giving specific names, most of the significant American banks, the larger banks, are bankrupt, totally bankrupt," said Rogers, who is now a private investor.
"What is outrageous economically and is outrageous morally is that normally in times like this, people who are competent and who saw it coming and who kept their powder dry go and take over the assets from the incompetent," he said. "What's happening this time is that the government is taking the assets from the competent people and giving them to the incompetent people and saying, now you can compete with the competent people. It is horrible economics."
Rogers said he shorted shares of Fannie Mae (FNM.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) before the government nationalized the mortgage financiers in September, a week before Lehman failed.
Now a specialist in commodities, Rogers said he has used the recent rally in the U.S. dollar as an opportunity to exit dollar-denominated assets.
While not saying how long the U.S. economic recession will last, he said conditions could ultimately mirror those of Japan in the 1990s. "The way things are going, we're going to have a lost decade too, just like the 1970s," he said.
Goldman Sachs & Co analysts this week estimated that banks worldwide have suffered $850 billion of credit-related losses and writedowns since the global credit crisis began last year.
But Rogers said sound U.S. lenders remain. He said these could include banks that don't make or hold subprime mortgages, or which have high ratios of deposits to equity, "all the classic old ratios that most banks in America forgot or started ignoring because they were too old-fashioned."
Many analysts cite Lehman's Sept 15 bankruptcy as a trigger for the recent cratering in the economy and stock markets.
Rogers called that idea "laughable," noting that banks have been failing for hundreds of years. And yet, he said policymakers aren't doing enough to prevent another Lehman.
"Governments are making mistakes," he said. "They're saying to all the banks, you don't have to tell us your situation. You can continue to use your balance sheet that is phony.... All these guys are bankrupt, they're still worrying about their bonuses, they're still trying to pay their dividends, and the whole system is weakened."
Rogers said is investing in growth areas in China and Taiwan, in such areas as water treatment and agriculture, and recently bought positions in energy and agriculture indexes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA5CO20081211
Monday, December 8, 2008
Commodity Fundamentals Are ‘Unimpaired,’ Rogers Says
Commodity Fundamentals Are ‘Unimpaired,’ Rogers Says (Update1)
By Nigel Stevenson and Brett Foley
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The fundamentals of commodities are “unimpaired” and prices will rebound when a lack of new supply leads to shortages, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
“Commodities will be the place to be if and when we come out of” the downturn, Rogers said yesterday in an interview from Miami. “The only thing where fundamentals are unimpaired are commodities. Farmers cannot get loans for fertilizer now. Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine. So we are going to have some serious, serious supply problems before too much longer.”
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has plunged 53 percent from a record in July on concern that a global recession will sap demand for raw materials. The index almost doubled between its low in 2001 and the end of last year.
Rogers said crude oil and agricultural commodities were the most likely to have shortages and the outlook for zinc and cotton had “improved.” “I haven’t sold any commodities since the bull market began,” he said.
“I own some gold and if gold goes down I’ll buy some more and if gold goes up I’ll buy some more,” Rogers said. “Gold during the course of the bull market, which has several more years to go, will go much higher.”
Gold for immediate delivery has tripled since its low in 2001. It’s still 25 percent below the record $1,032.70 an ounce reached in March.
‘Unfathomable’
Rogers also said that while he owned platinum through index investments, “I’m not buying platinum at the moment.”
Platinum, used mostly in jewelry and catalytic converters for cars, has plunged 64 percent since reaching an all-time high of $2,301.50 an ounce in March.
Central banks and President-elect Barack Obama should be careful in responding to the global economic slump, Rogers said.
“It is astonishing how bad they’re reacting this time. It is unfathomable to me what they’re doing and you think some of them would have read some history,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Nigel Stevenson in London at nstevenson@bloomberg.net; Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 5, 2008 03:21 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoqpN8LQJqAM
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vxDflc7bPwN0.asf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3WhlddSBbw
http://c77mxg.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pHp6rIXoWxr4oGjWJvcEpLAmyu0sAryW09CQMoPbtaFO6XN8UJJSXI7t1F360oZApaoI2jWm5SEVBTylvptom8w/JimRogers_Bloomberg_05_12_2008_p1.mp4?download
http://c77mxg.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pQnMjVG9kSWjPHCzT-ZyqbMoRQm3qFLZBcnLgt70v4L3K2x6n2g7y4DV2F45iGFcHgAzPUM8W4xI/JimRogers_Bloomberg_05_12_2008_p2.mp4?download
08/12/2008
tjhinkh: Jim has covered his short on long term US treasury bonds with a loss.
He often enter early. But is willing to admit his mistake and close the trade.
He is still looking to short US treasury bond as he thought that it is in a bubble.
In a bubble, people often get it wrong by going in too early.
Jim also thinks that the Chinese should not be spending so much money in the panic.
He also plan to travel around China with his two daughters. They will be his interpreter.
By Nigel Stevenson and Brett Foley
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The fundamentals of commodities are “unimpaired” and prices will rebound when a lack of new supply leads to shortages, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
“Commodities will be the place to be if and when we come out of” the downturn, Rogers said yesterday in an interview from Miami. “The only thing where fundamentals are unimpaired are commodities. Farmers cannot get loans for fertilizer now. Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine. So we are going to have some serious, serious supply problems before too much longer.”
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has plunged 53 percent from a record in July on concern that a global recession will sap demand for raw materials. The index almost doubled between its low in 2001 and the end of last year.
Rogers said crude oil and agricultural commodities were the most likely to have shortages and the outlook for zinc and cotton had “improved.” “I haven’t sold any commodities since the bull market began,” he said.
“I own some gold and if gold goes down I’ll buy some more and if gold goes up I’ll buy some more,” Rogers said. “Gold during the course of the bull market, which has several more years to go, will go much higher.”
Gold for immediate delivery has tripled since its low in 2001. It’s still 25 percent below the record $1,032.70 an ounce reached in March.
‘Unfathomable’
Rogers also said that while he owned platinum through index investments, “I’m not buying platinum at the moment.”
Platinum, used mostly in jewelry and catalytic converters for cars, has plunged 64 percent since reaching an all-time high of $2,301.50 an ounce in March.
Central banks and President-elect Barack Obama should be careful in responding to the global economic slump, Rogers said.
“It is astonishing how bad they’re reacting this time. It is unfathomable to me what they’re doing and you think some of them would have read some history,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Nigel Stevenson in London at nstevenson@bloomberg.net; Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 5, 2008 03:21 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoqpN8LQJqAM
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vxDflc7bPwN0.asf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3WhlddSBbw
http://c77mxg.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pHp6rIXoWxr4oGjWJvcEpLAmyu0sAryW09CQMoPbtaFO6XN8UJJSXI7t1F360oZApaoI2jWm5SEVBTylvptom8w/JimRogers_Bloomberg_05_12_2008_p1.mp4?download
http://c77mxg.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pQnMjVG9kSWjPHCzT-ZyqbMoRQm3qFLZBcnLgt70v4L3K2x6n2g7y4DV2F45iGFcHgAzPUM8W4xI/JimRogers_Bloomberg_05_12_2008_p2.mp4?download
08/12/2008
tjhinkh: Jim has covered his short on long term US treasury bonds with a loss.
He often enter early. But is willing to admit his mistake and close the trade.
He is still looking to short US treasury bond as he thought that it is in a bubble.
In a bubble, people often get it wrong by going in too early.
Jim also thinks that the Chinese should not be spending so much money in the panic.
He also plan to travel around China with his two daughters. They will be his interpreter.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Thanksgiving brings Rogers family together
Thanksgiving brings Rogers family together
By David Snow (Contact) Demopolis Times
Published Saturday, November 29, 2008
DEMOPOLIS — When one thinks of Thanksgiving, there is the food, of course, but the first image that comes to mind is really that of family. As the first major holiday of the year, it is usually a time to see family members who are too far away to visit with regularly, and it is a cherished time to see them once again.
That holds true for Jim Rogers, a native of Demopolis now lives in Singapore, and his brother, Broughton Rogers, who lives here in Demopolis. Every Thanksgiving, they visit their mother in Birmingham, but this holiday, Jim found the time to come home again for the first time in more than three years.
“Broughton is the only family I have still here in Demopolis,” he said. “Him and Dee Lott, my cousin.
“Broughton and I were in Birmingham (on Thanksgiving. I live in Singapore now, and my wife and two children flew from Singapore to Vienna to New York to Birmingham. My mother is in an assisted living nursing home in Birmingham now. We spent Thanksgiving with her. Broughton drove up, and we all had Thanksgiving together.”
The two brothers decided to come down to Demopolis Thanksgiving night for a hometown visit.
“Thursday night, I came down here to Demopolis, because I haven’t been to Demopolis in a while, and I was really keen to see Demopolis,” Jim said. “We drove around Demopolis that night, and we drove around some (on Friday), and then, I’m going back to Birmingham to be with my mother and two daughters.”
Another reason for the Birmingham visit is so Jim’s 8-month-old daughter can be baptized in church on Sunday.
“Broughton is coming up for that,” Jim said, “and some of my other brothers, as well, for the baptism.”
Broughton enjoyed the visit with his brother, as the two drove around town to relive memories. Jim graduated from Demopolis High School in 1960, while Broughton was a 1967 DHS graduate.
“He took us out to eat (Thursday night),” Broughton said. “We drove around Demopolis and went to the Red Barn and saw some people. Jim saw Roger Roberts, and I saw a couple of people.”
It was a pleasant Thanksgiving for their mother to see her sons together.
“She had not seen the two of us together in a while,” Jim said. “I usually get to Alabama at Thanksgiving. Our mother is 89 years old, and she’s very, very keen and excited when we come over.”
Jim said that two other brothers will be in Birmingham for his daughter’s baptism.
“They have five sons,” he said. “I saw one of the sons, Mabry, Tuesday night when we arrived in Birmingham. Then, he and his wife flew to California on Wednesday to see one of their daughters. I will see all of my brothers at some time or another during this trip, but I will not see all four of them.”
That speaks to the commonality of family members coming home from all over for a chance to get together for however short a time before leaving to tend to other responsibilities and other parts of their lives.
The food is a great part of Thanksgiving, but the key ingredient to any Thanksgiving meal is family.
http://www.demopolistimes.com/news/2008/nov/29/thanksgiving-brings-rogers-family-together/
By David Snow (Contact) Demopolis Times
Published Saturday, November 29, 2008
DEMOPOLIS — When one thinks of Thanksgiving, there is the food, of course, but the first image that comes to mind is really that of family. As the first major holiday of the year, it is usually a time to see family members who are too far away to visit with regularly, and it is a cherished time to see them once again.
That holds true for Jim Rogers, a native of Demopolis now lives in Singapore, and his brother, Broughton Rogers, who lives here in Demopolis. Every Thanksgiving, they visit their mother in Birmingham, but this holiday, Jim found the time to come home again for the first time in more than three years.
“Broughton is the only family I have still here in Demopolis,” he said. “Him and Dee Lott, my cousin.
“Broughton and I were in Birmingham (on Thanksgiving. I live in Singapore now, and my wife and two children flew from Singapore to Vienna to New York to Birmingham. My mother is in an assisted living nursing home in Birmingham now. We spent Thanksgiving with her. Broughton drove up, and we all had Thanksgiving together.”
The two brothers decided to come down to Demopolis Thanksgiving night for a hometown visit.
“Thursday night, I came down here to Demopolis, because I haven’t been to Demopolis in a while, and I was really keen to see Demopolis,” Jim said. “We drove around Demopolis that night, and we drove around some (on Friday), and then, I’m going back to Birmingham to be with my mother and two daughters.”
Another reason for the Birmingham visit is so Jim’s 8-month-old daughter can be baptized in church on Sunday.
“Broughton is coming up for that,” Jim said, “and some of my other brothers, as well, for the baptism.”
Broughton enjoyed the visit with his brother, as the two drove around town to relive memories. Jim graduated from Demopolis High School in 1960, while Broughton was a 1967 DHS graduate.
“He took us out to eat (Thursday night),” Broughton said. “We drove around Demopolis and went to the Red Barn and saw some people. Jim saw Roger Roberts, and I saw a couple of people.”
It was a pleasant Thanksgiving for their mother to see her sons together.
“She had not seen the two of us together in a while,” Jim said. “I usually get to Alabama at Thanksgiving. Our mother is 89 years old, and she’s very, very keen and excited when we come over.”
Jim said that two other brothers will be in Birmingham for his daughter’s baptism.
“They have five sons,” he said. “I saw one of the sons, Mabry, Tuesday night when we arrived in Birmingham. Then, he and his wife flew to California on Wednesday to see one of their daughters. I will see all of my brothers at some time or another during this trip, but I will not see all four of them.”
That speaks to the commonality of family members coming home from all over for a chance to get together for however short a time before leaving to tend to other responsibilities and other parts of their lives.
The food is a great part of Thanksgiving, but the key ingredient to any Thanksgiving meal is family.
http://www.demopolistimes.com/news/2008/nov/29/thanksgiving-brings-rogers-family-together/
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