Investor Jim Rogers says the buck stops here
Mon Nov 12, 2007 5:00am EST
By Tom Miles
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar is sinking fast and investors wanting to stay afloat should clamber into a raft of commodities and benefit from the rising tide of China's economic boom, investment guru Jim Rogers said on Monday.
"I'm hoping to get all my assets out of U.S. dollars in the next few weeks or months," he told reporters in Hong Kong via a video link from Singapore. "But that will include going into commodities because that is a way out of U.S. dollars."
Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s, said the U.S. economy was already in recession, or soon would be, and the U.S. dollar would continue to have problems for years to come.
But that would not be enough to dent demand from Asia.
"Asia's now becoming its own entity. Asia is growing on its own. If you look around Asia you'll see that they're much more independent of the United States and will continue to get more independent."
Driving this bull market would be 3 billion people -- in China, India, Pakistan and Vietnam -- whose economies were at a subsistence level during the last commodities boom.
"Now, look around you. Everybody in Asia wants to live the way we live in America," said Rogers, who was launching Barclays' (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) Global Commodities Delta Fund, which tracks his Rogers International Commodity Index (.RICIX: Quote, Profile, Research), in Hong Kong.
He said he'd recently been buying agricultural commodities, which he favored over metals such as tin (MSN3: Quote, Profile, Research) and lead (MPB3: Quote, Profile, Research), which were close to all-time highs.
"I think there are great opportunities in agriculture ... like sugar, which is something like 80 percent below it's all-time high, or cotton." he said.
OIL DOUBLES, CHINA BUBBLES
Another long-term winner will be crude oil because, he said, demand continues to grow but new supplies are scarce.
"Over the course of the bull market, oil has to go to $150, it has to go to $200, because nobody's been discovering oil."
But Rogers, who described himself as the world's worst short-term trader, said all big rallies suffered occasional setbacks on the way up and he wasn't making any short-term forecasts about the oil price.
And bear markets catch support on the way down, which he said might give the dollar a few footholds as it falls.
"Everyone's extremely pessimistic about the dollar, so we're bound to have a rally soon," said Rogers.
But longer-term, the picture was clear and the best currencies to buy would be the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. He said the Chinese government should make the yuan fully convertible as soon as possible.
"I would certainly suspect by 2010, if not by the Olympics next year," he said. "It's causing bubbles within the Chinese economy. It's causing inflation within China."
But he had little love for the Hong Kong dollar, which he said should disappear as soon as the yuan becomes convertible.
"If I were the Hong Kong government, I would abolish the Hong Kong dollar. There's no reason for the Hong Kong dollar. It's a historical anomaly."
(Editing by Anne Marie Roantree)
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSHKG9614920071112?sp=true
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Freddie, Fannie Shares Will Continue to Slide, Jim Rogers Says
Freddie, Fannie Shares Will Continue to Slide, Jim Rogers Says
By Jeff Kearns and Brian Sullivan
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac, which today dropped the most ever after posting a record loss, and rival mortgage lender Fannie Mae will continue to tumble because of bad home loans, investor Jim Rogers said.
``I'm still short those companies, they both have a long way to go as far as I'm concerned,'' Rogers said in an interview. ``Neither one has a clue what's on their balance sheets.''
Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage company, warned of a possible cut in the dividend and the need for additional capital. The worst housing slump in 16 years caused ``significant deterioration'' in the third quarter that will continue through year-end, Freddie Mac said after reporting a net loss of $2.02 billion, or $3.29 a share, three times what some analysts estimated.
Fannie Mae spokesman Brian Faith declined to comment on Rogers. Freddie Mac spokesman Michael Cosgrove didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Rogers, chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc., also said he is still shorting shares of investment banks and Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank by assets.
``There are huge numbers of writedowns still coming,'' Rogers said.
Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999, advised in a Nov. 5 interview with Bloomberg that investors should avoid financial stocks. In March 2006, he said Fannie Mae shares would decline.
Financial stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have tumbled 22 percent this year, the most among 10 industries. The index fell 2.9 percent to 384.50, the lowest since October 2005, as of 1:13 p.m. in New York.
Rogers co-founded the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros in the 1970s. He traveled the world by motorcycle and car in the 1990s researching investment ideas for his books, which include ``Adventure Capitalist'' and ``Hot Commodities.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net ; Brian Sullivan in New York at bsullivan@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: November 20, 2007 13:21 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&refer=home&sid=a2udgQaBPhYc
By Jeff Kearns and Brian Sullivan
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac, which today dropped the most ever after posting a record loss, and rival mortgage lender Fannie Mae will continue to tumble because of bad home loans, investor Jim Rogers said.
``I'm still short those companies, they both have a long way to go as far as I'm concerned,'' Rogers said in an interview. ``Neither one has a clue what's on their balance sheets.''
Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage company, warned of a possible cut in the dividend and the need for additional capital. The worst housing slump in 16 years caused ``significant deterioration'' in the third quarter that will continue through year-end, Freddie Mac said after reporting a net loss of $2.02 billion, or $3.29 a share, three times what some analysts estimated.
Fannie Mae spokesman Brian Faith declined to comment on Rogers. Freddie Mac spokesman Michael Cosgrove didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Rogers, chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc., also said he is still shorting shares of investment banks and Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank by assets.
``There are huge numbers of writedowns still coming,'' Rogers said.
Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999, advised in a Nov. 5 interview with Bloomberg that investors should avoid financial stocks. In March 2006, he said Fannie Mae shares would decline.
Financial stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have tumbled 22 percent this year, the most among 10 industries. The index fell 2.9 percent to 384.50, the lowest since October 2005, as of 1:13 p.m. in New York.
Rogers co-founded the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros in the 1970s. He traveled the world by motorcycle and car in the 1990s researching investment ideas for his books, which include ``Adventure Capitalist'' and ``Hot Commodities.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net ; Brian Sullivan in New York at bsullivan@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: November 20, 2007 13:21 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&refer=home&sid=a2udgQaBPhYc
Jim Rogers Urges People to Sell U.S. Dollar Holdings (Update1)
Jim Rogers Urges People to Sell U.S. Dollar Holdings (Update1)
By Aaron Pan and Paul Gordon
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers urged people to get out of the dollar and says he expects to be rid of all his U.S. currency assets by summer next year.
``If you have dollars, I urge you to get out,'' Rogers said in an interview from Singapore. He is chairman of New York-based Rogers Holdings, formerly known as Beeland Interests Inc. ``That's not a currency to own.''
The dollar fell 9.5 percent this year against a basket of six major currencies as a housing slump slowed the economy and losses stemming from subprime mortgage defaults spread among U.S. banks. Rogers, who said last month he was shifting out of all his dollar assets, plans to buy commodities, Japan's yen, the Chinese yuan and the Swiss franc.
Interest rate futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 72 percent chance that the central bank will lower its target rate for overnight loans between banks to 4.25 percent on Dec. 11, its third reduction this year.
Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999, criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for comments on the currency before a congressional committee on Nov. 8.
``He is a total fool,'' Rogers said. ``He said Americans who buy only American goods are not affected if the value of the U.S. dollar goes down. I was terrified.''
Bernanke said the only effect of a weaker dollar on a typical American with their wealth in dollars, buying consumer goods in dollars, would be ``their buying powers, it makes imported goods more expensive.''
Rogers said that's not right.
``If you only buy American products and the dollar goes down, the price of oil goes up, copper goes up, wheat goes up,'' he said. ``That affects you. He doesn't understand the economy as far as I can see.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at Apan8@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: November 15, 2007 01:15 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXH9wCx1oydw&refer=us
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vTCeJnFDJFO0.asf
By Aaron Pan and Paul Gordon
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers urged people to get out of the dollar and says he expects to be rid of all his U.S. currency assets by summer next year.
``If you have dollars, I urge you to get out,'' Rogers said in an interview from Singapore. He is chairman of New York-based Rogers Holdings, formerly known as Beeland Interests Inc. ``That's not a currency to own.''
The dollar fell 9.5 percent this year against a basket of six major currencies as a housing slump slowed the economy and losses stemming from subprime mortgage defaults spread among U.S. banks. Rogers, who said last month he was shifting out of all his dollar assets, plans to buy commodities, Japan's yen, the Chinese yuan and the Swiss franc.
Interest rate futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 72 percent chance that the central bank will lower its target rate for overnight loans between banks to 4.25 percent on Dec. 11, its third reduction this year.
Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999, criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for comments on the currency before a congressional committee on Nov. 8.
``He is a total fool,'' Rogers said. ``He said Americans who buy only American goods are not affected if the value of the U.S. dollar goes down. I was terrified.''
Bernanke said the only effect of a weaker dollar on a typical American with their wealth in dollars, buying consumer goods in dollars, would be ``their buying powers, it makes imported goods more expensive.''
Rogers said that's not right.
``If you only buy American products and the dollar goes down, the price of oil goes up, copper goes up, wheat goes up,'' he said. ``That affects you. He doesn't understand the economy as far as I can see.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at Apan8@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: November 15, 2007 01:15 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXH9wCx1oydw&refer=us
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vTCeJnFDJFO0.asf
Rogers May Move Assets Out of U.S. Dollars in Weeks (Update2)
Rogers May Move Assets Out of U.S. Dollars in Weeks (Update2)
By Bei Hu
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers said he may sell all U.S. dollar-denominated assets as early as in the coming weeks in favor of agricultural commodities.
``I'm hoping to move all of my assets out of U.S. dollars in the next few weeks or months,'' the 65-year-old chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. told reporters in Hong Kong through a video link today from Singapore to mark the launch of a Barclays Plc fund targeting Hong Kong individuals and based on the Rogers International Commodity Index -- Total Index.
Demand not matched by increases in supply makes commodities ``one of the best places to be if you want to get out of the U.S. dollars,'' Rogers said, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999.
He particularly favors agricultural commodities such as sugar and cotton, which are trading below their historical highs, he said.
Agricultural products are rising because of increasing demand for food and biofuel as crude oil soars to a record. Crude traded at a record $98.62 last week in New York. Wheat traded on the Chicago Board of Trade reached a record $9.6175 a bushel on Sept. 28. Still, sugar has fallen 15 percent this year in New York as rising production in India pushes down prices.
Long Way Down
Rogers said the U.S. economy may already be in recession and no stock market around the world is attractive at the moment.
``Shares still have a long way down to go over the next two or three years, at least according to my estimation,'' he said.
Declines in equities could drag down commodities prices, thought depleting reserves will over the long term support resources prices, he said. Historical commodity booms lasted 15 years to 23 years, meaning the current rally may continue through 2014 to 2022, barring major setbacks such as Avian influenza, or bird-flu, pandemic, Rogers said.
Oil will hit $150 or $200 in the course of the commodity bull market because no one has discovered a major oilfield for over 40 years, Rogers said.
The Rogers commodities index, tracking more than 30 commodities including energy, metals and agricultural products, has surged more than 300 percent since its inception in 1998, said Wendy Kwan, Barclays Capital's director of investor solutions.
Hong Kong Dollar
Rogers said Hong Kong would be able to improve the efficiency and profitability of trade with mainland China should it abolish its local currency and adopt the yuan once the mainland Chinese currency becomes fully convertible.
``You have a gigantic neighbor who's becoming the most incredible economy in the world,'' Rogers said. ``It'd be like having a special currency for Mississippi when the rest of the U.S. uses the U.S. dollar.''
He said he wouldn't be surprised if the yuan becomes fully convertible by the time Beijing hosts the Olympics next year or the 2010 Shanghai World Expo.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at bhu5@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 12, 2007 05:27 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=at_rv3aCT._4&refer=home
By Bei Hu
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers said he may sell all U.S. dollar-denominated assets as early as in the coming weeks in favor of agricultural commodities.
``I'm hoping to move all of my assets out of U.S. dollars in the next few weeks or months,'' the 65-year-old chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. told reporters in Hong Kong through a video link today from Singapore to mark the launch of a Barclays Plc fund targeting Hong Kong individuals and based on the Rogers International Commodity Index -- Total Index.
Demand not matched by increases in supply makes commodities ``one of the best places to be if you want to get out of the U.S. dollars,'' Rogers said, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999.
He particularly favors agricultural commodities such as sugar and cotton, which are trading below their historical highs, he said.
Agricultural products are rising because of increasing demand for food and biofuel as crude oil soars to a record. Crude traded at a record $98.62 last week in New York. Wheat traded on the Chicago Board of Trade reached a record $9.6175 a bushel on Sept. 28. Still, sugar has fallen 15 percent this year in New York as rising production in India pushes down prices.
Long Way Down
Rogers said the U.S. economy may already be in recession and no stock market around the world is attractive at the moment.
``Shares still have a long way down to go over the next two or three years, at least according to my estimation,'' he said.
Declines in equities could drag down commodities prices, thought depleting reserves will over the long term support resources prices, he said. Historical commodity booms lasted 15 years to 23 years, meaning the current rally may continue through 2014 to 2022, barring major setbacks such as Avian influenza, or bird-flu, pandemic, Rogers said.
Oil will hit $150 or $200 in the course of the commodity bull market because no one has discovered a major oilfield for over 40 years, Rogers said.
The Rogers commodities index, tracking more than 30 commodities including energy, metals and agricultural products, has surged more than 300 percent since its inception in 1998, said Wendy Kwan, Barclays Capital's director of investor solutions.
Hong Kong Dollar
Rogers said Hong Kong would be able to improve the efficiency and profitability of trade with mainland China should it abolish its local currency and adopt the yuan once the mainland Chinese currency becomes fully convertible.
``You have a gigantic neighbor who's becoming the most incredible economy in the world,'' Rogers said. ``It'd be like having a special currency for Mississippi when the rest of the U.S. uses the U.S. dollar.''
He said he wouldn't be surprised if the yuan becomes fully convertible by the time Beijing hosts the Olympics next year or the 2010 Shanghai World Expo.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at bhu5@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 12, 2007 05:27 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=at_rv3aCT._4&refer=home
Rogers Bets Against U.S. Investment Banks, Housing (Update1)
Rogers Bets Against U.S. Investment Banks, Housing (Update1)
By Saijel Kishan and David Clarke
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Hedge Fund with billionaire George Soros, boosted his bets against U.S. securities firms because of their salary ``excesses'' and money-losing investments.
Rogers said he increased his year-old short positions in the past six weeks in U.S. investment banks, using exchange-traded funds and bets against individual companies he declined to name. Stocks in the industry, which pays too much in bonuses, may fall as much as 70 percent in a bear market, he said.
``You see 29-year-olds on Wall Street making $10 million to $20 million a year, and they think it's normal,'' Rogers, 65, said in an interview in London today. ``There have been lots of excesses,'' said Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc.
The top five U.S. securities firms will probably earn a combined $29.3 billion this year, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, breaking a three-year record streak after Merrill Lynch & Co. reported a $2.2 billion third-quarter loss. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. earned $30.7 billion last year, three times more than their profit in 2002.
Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's most-profitable securities firm, said Sept. 20 that it set aside $16.9 billion to pay salaries, benefits and bonuses in the first nine months of the year, topping the record amount for all of last year.
A month later, Merrill Lynch reported its biggest quarterly loss amid $8.4 billion of writedowns for subprime mortgages, asset-backed bonds and bad loans. The 12-member AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index has fallen 13 percent since the start of June, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was little changed.
`Bad Paper'
``Who knows how bad the balance sheets are,'' Rogers said. ``They took on gigantic amounts of bad paper.''
Money managers such as Rogers take short positions by selling borrowed shares. They aim to buy them back at a lower price and pocket the difference.
Rogers said he made the investments using his own money. He declined to say how much he oversees.
The slump in the U.S. housing market ``still has a long way to go'' before recovering, he said. ``Market excesses don't clear themselves out in just four or five months; they take years.''
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. dropped 8 percent in September to 5.04 million, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1999, the National Association of Realtors said Oct. 24. Rogers said he started shorting U.S. home stocks three years ago.
Still, Rogers said he managed to offload his six-story townhouse in New York, which he put up for sale last year, for more than his asking price of $15 million. He declined to disclose the selling prices for the Riverside Drive property because the sale is still being processed.
`Doing Well'
``Some part of the U.S. housing market are doing well and some aren't,'' he said.
Rogers is best known for being a commodities bull since 1999, before the market started to rally in 2001. His Rogers International Commodity Index has more than quadrupled since its start in 1998, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index gained 56 percent.
``History shows that the bull market in commodities will last a long time,'' Rogers said last year. He predicted in 2005 that commodities will rally at least until 2014 and perhaps until 2022.
Rogers also has taken high-profile investment stances that didn't pan out. He said last year, for example, that India was a losing investment idea.
``I just don't think it's going to work,'' he said in a Nov. 1, 2006, interview. ``As far as investing in India as a whole, you will get wind in your face.''
Since that time, India's main stock index, the BSE Sensex, has climbed 52 percent, reaching a record high yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Saijel Kishan in London at skishan@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 31, 2007 12:57 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=au.vAYBvBP4I&refer=home
http://oasc08008.247realmedia.com/adstream_sx.ads/bloomberg/tvradio/tv/vod/120518@Middle
By Saijel Kishan and David Clarke
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Hedge Fund with billionaire George Soros, boosted his bets against U.S. securities firms because of their salary ``excesses'' and money-losing investments.
Rogers said he increased his year-old short positions in the past six weeks in U.S. investment banks, using exchange-traded funds and bets against individual companies he declined to name. Stocks in the industry, which pays too much in bonuses, may fall as much as 70 percent in a bear market, he said.
``You see 29-year-olds on Wall Street making $10 million to $20 million a year, and they think it's normal,'' Rogers, 65, said in an interview in London today. ``There have been lots of excesses,'' said Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc.
The top five U.S. securities firms will probably earn a combined $29.3 billion this year, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, breaking a three-year record streak after Merrill Lynch & Co. reported a $2.2 billion third-quarter loss. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. earned $30.7 billion last year, three times more than their profit in 2002.
Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's most-profitable securities firm, said Sept. 20 that it set aside $16.9 billion to pay salaries, benefits and bonuses in the first nine months of the year, topping the record amount for all of last year.
A month later, Merrill Lynch reported its biggest quarterly loss amid $8.4 billion of writedowns for subprime mortgages, asset-backed bonds and bad loans. The 12-member AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index has fallen 13 percent since the start of June, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was little changed.
`Bad Paper'
``Who knows how bad the balance sheets are,'' Rogers said. ``They took on gigantic amounts of bad paper.''
Money managers such as Rogers take short positions by selling borrowed shares. They aim to buy them back at a lower price and pocket the difference.
Rogers said he made the investments using his own money. He declined to say how much he oversees.
The slump in the U.S. housing market ``still has a long way to go'' before recovering, he said. ``Market excesses don't clear themselves out in just four or five months; they take years.''
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. dropped 8 percent in September to 5.04 million, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1999, the National Association of Realtors said Oct. 24. Rogers said he started shorting U.S. home stocks three years ago.
Still, Rogers said he managed to offload his six-story townhouse in New York, which he put up for sale last year, for more than his asking price of $15 million. He declined to disclose the selling prices for the Riverside Drive property because the sale is still being processed.
`Doing Well'
``Some part of the U.S. housing market are doing well and some aren't,'' he said.
Rogers is best known for being a commodities bull since 1999, before the market started to rally in 2001. His Rogers International Commodity Index has more than quadrupled since its start in 1998, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index gained 56 percent.
``History shows that the bull market in commodities will last a long time,'' Rogers said last year. He predicted in 2005 that commodities will rally at least until 2014 and perhaps until 2022.
Rogers also has taken high-profile investment stances that didn't pan out. He said last year, for example, that India was a losing investment idea.
``I just don't think it's going to work,'' he said in a Nov. 1, 2006, interview. ``As far as investing in India as a whole, you will get wind in your face.''
Since that time, India's main stock index, the BSE Sensex, has climbed 52 percent, reaching a record high yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Saijel Kishan in London at skishan@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 31, 2007 12:57 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=au.vAYBvBP4I&refer=home
http://oasc08008.247realmedia.com/adstream_sx.ads/bloomberg/tvradio/tv/vod/120518@Middle
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