Tuesday, August 19th, 2008
Exclusive Interview: Jim Rogers Predicts Bigger Financial Shocks Loom, Fueling a Malaise That May Last for Years
[The First of Two Parts.]
Keith Fitz-GeraldInvestment DirectorMoney Morning/The Money Map Report
VANCOUVER, B.C. – The U.S. financial crisis has cut so deep – and the government has taken on so much debt in misguided attempts to bail out such companies as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) – that even larger financial shocks are still to come, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.
Indeed, the U.S. financial debacle is now so ingrained – and a so-called "Super Crash" so likely – that most Americans alive today won’t be around by the time the last of this credit-market mess is finally cleared away – if it ever is, Rogers said.
The end of this crisis "is a long way away," Rogers said. "In fact, it may not be in our lifetimes."
During a 40-minute interview during a wealth-management conference in this West Coast Canadian city last month, Rogers also said that:
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke should "resign" for the bailout deals he’s handed out as he’s tried to battle this credit crisis.
That the U.S. national debt – the roughly $5 trillion held by the public– essentially doubled in the course of a single weekend because of the Fed-led credit crisis bailout deals.
That U.S. consumers and investors can expect much-higher interest rates – noting that if the Fed doesn’t raise borrowing costs, market forces will make that happen.
And that the average American has no idea just how bad this financial crisis is going to get.
"The next shock is going to be bigger and bigger, still," Rogers said. "The shocks keep getting bigger because we keep propping things up … [and] bailing everyone out."
Rogers first made a name for himself with The Quantum Fund, a hedge fund that’s often described as the first real global investment fund, which he and partner George Soros founded in 1970. Over the next decade, Quantum gained 4,200%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed about 50%.
It was after Rogers "retired" in 1980 that the investing masses got to see him in action. Rogers traveled the world (several times), and penned such bestsellers as "Investment Biker" and the recently released "A Bull in China." And he made some historic market calls: Rogers predicted China’s meteoric growth a good decade before it became apparent and he subsequently foretold of the powerful updraft in global commodities prices that’s fueled a year-long bull market in the agriculture, energy and mining sectors.
Rogers’ candor has made him a popular figure with individual investors, meaning his pronouncements are always closely watched. Here are some of the highlights from the exclusive interview we had with the author and investor, who now makes his home in Singapore:
Keith Fitz-Gerald (Q): Looks like the financial train wreck we talked about earlier this year is happening.
Jim Rogers: There was a train wreck, yes. Two or three – more than one, as you know. [U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.] Bernanke and his boys both came to the rescue. Which is going to cover things up for a while. And then I don’t know how long the rally will last and then we’ll be off to the races again. Whether the rally lasts six days or six weeks, I don’t know. I wish I did know that sort of thing, but I never do.
(Q):What would Chairman Bernanke have to do to "get it right?"
Rogers: Resign.
(Q): Is there anything else that you think he could do that would be correct other than let these things fail?
Rogers: Well, at this stage, it doesn’t seem like he can do it. He could raise interest rates – which he should do, anyway. Somebody should. The market’s going to do it whether he does it or not, eventually.
The problem is that he’s got all that garbage on his balance sheet now. He has $400 billion of questionable assets owing to the feds on his balance sheet. I mean, he could try to reverse that. He could raise interest rates. Yeah, that’s what he could do. That would help. It would cause a shock to the system, but if we don’t have the shock now, the shock’s going to be much worse later on. Every shock, so far, has been worse than the last shock. Bear-Stearns [now part of JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)] was one thing and then it’s Fannie Mae (FNM), you know, and now Freddie Mac (FRE).
The next shock’s going to be even bigger still. So the shocks keep getting bigger because we kept propping things up and this has been going on at least since Long-Term Capital Management. They’ve been bailing everyone out and [former Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan took interest rates down and then he took them down again after the "dot-com bubble" shock, so I guess Bernanke could try to start reversing some of this stuff.
But he has to not just reverse it – he’d have to increase interest rates a lot to make up for it and that’s not going to solve the problem either, because the basic problems are that America’s got a horrible tax system, it’s got litigation right, left, and center, it’s got horrible education system, you know, and it’s got many, many, many [other] problems that are going to take a while to resolve. If he did at least turn things around – turn some of these policies around – we would have a sharp drop, but at least it would clean out some of the excesses and the system could turn around and start doing better.
But this is academic – he’s not going to do it. But again the best thing for him would be to abolish the Federal Reserve and resign. That’ll be the best solution. Is he going to do that? No, of course not. He still thinks he knows what he’s doing.
(Q): Earlier this year, when we talked in Singapore, you made the observation that the average American still doesn’t know anything’s wrong – that anything’s happening. Is that still the case?
Rogers:Yes.
(Q): What would you tell the "Average Joe" in no-nonsense terms?
Rogers: I would say that for the last 200 years, America’s elected politicians and scoundrels have built up $5 trillion in debt. In the last few weekends, some un-elected officials added another $5 trillion to America’s national debt.
Suddenly we’re on the hook for another $5 trillion. There have been attempts to explain this to the public, about what’s happening with the debt, and with the fact that America’s situation is deteriorating in the world.
I don’t know why it doesn’t sink in. People have other things on their minds, or don’t want to be bothered. Too complicated, or whatever.
I’m sure when the [British Empire] declined there were many people who rang the bell and said: "Guys, we’re making too many mistakes here in the U.K." And nobody listened until it was too late.
When Spain was in decline, when Rome was in decline, I’m sure there were people who noticed that things were going wrong.
(Q): Many experts don’t agree with – at the very least don’t understand – the Fed’s current strategies. How can our leaders think they’re making the right choices? What do you think?
Rogers: Bernanke is a very-narrow-gauged guy. He’s spent his whole intellectual career studying the printing of money and we have now given him the keys to the printing presses. All he knows how to do is run them.
Bernanke was [on the record as saying] that there is no problem with housing in America. There’s no problem in housing finance. I mean this was like in 2006 or 2005.
(Q): Right.
Rogers: He is the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve more than anybody is supposed to be regulating these [financial institutions], so they should have the inside scoop, if nothing else.
(Q): That’s problematic.
Rogers: It’s mind-boggling. Here’s a man who doesn’t understand the market, who doesn’t understand economics – basic economics. His intellectual career’s been spent on the narrow-gauge study of printing money. That’s all he knows.
Yes, he’s got a PhD, which says economics on it, but economics can be one of 200 different narrow fields. And his is printing money, which he’s good at, we know. We’ve learned that he’s ready, willing and able to step in and bail out everybody.
There’s this worry [whenever you have a major financial institution that looks ready to fail] that, "Oh my God, we’re going to go down, and if we go down, the whole system goes down."
This is nothing new. Whole systems have been taken down before. We’ve had it happen plenty of times.
(Q): History is littered with failed financial institutions.
Rogers: I know. It’s not as though this is the first time it’s ever happened. But since [Chairman Bernanke’s] whole career is about printing money and studying the Depression, he says: "Okay, got to print some more money. Got to save the day." And, of course, that’s when he gets himself in deeper, because the first time you print it, you prop up Institution X, [but] then you got to worry about institution Y and Z.
(Q): And now we’ve got a dangerous precedent.
Rogers: That’s exactly right. And when the next guy calls him up, he’s going to bail him out, too.
(Q): What do you think [former Fed Chairman] Paul Volcker thinks about all this?
Rogers: Well, Volcker has said it’s certainly beyond the scope of central banking, as he understands central banking.
(Q): That’s pretty darn clear.
Rogers: Volcker’s been very clear – very clear to me, anyway – about what he thinks of it, and Volcker was the last decent American central banker. We’ve had couple in our history: Volcker and William McChesney Martin were two.
You know, McChesney Martin was the guy who said the job of a good central banker was to take away the punchbowl when the party starts getting good. Now [the Fed] – when the party starts getting out of control – pours more moonshine in. McChesney Martin would always pull the bowl away when people started getting a little giggly. Now the party’s out of control.
(Q): This could be the end of the Federal Reserve, which we talked about in Singapore. This would be the third failure – correct?
Rogers: Yes. We had two central banks that disappeared for whatever reason. This one’s going to disappear, too, I say.
(Q): Throughout your career you’ve had a much-fabled ability to spot unique points in history – inflection points, if you will. Points when, as you put it, somebody puts money in the corner at which you then simply pick up.
Rogers: That’s the way to invest, as far as I’m concerned.
(Q): So conceivably, history would show that the highest returns go to those who invest when there’s blood in the streets, even if it’s their own.
Rogers: Right.
(Q): Is there a point in time or something you’re looking for that will signal that the U.S. economy has reached the inflection point in this crisis?
Rogers: Well, yeah, but it’s a long way away. In fact, it may not be in our lifetimes. Of course I covered my shorts – my financial shorts. Not all of them, but most of them last week.
So, if you’re talking about a temporary inflection point, we may have hit it.
If you look back at previous countries that have declined, you almost always see exchange controls – all sorts of controls – before failure. America is already doing some of that. America, for example, wouldn’t let the Chinese buy the oil company, wouldn’t let the [Dubai firm] buy the ports, et cetera.
But I’m really talking about full-fledged, all-out exchange controls. That would certainly be a sign, but usually exchange controls are not the end of the story. Historically, they’re somewhere during the decline. Then the politicians bring in exchange controls and then things get worse from there before they bottom.
Before World War II, Japan’s yen was two to the dollar. After they lost the war, the yen was 500 to the dollar. That’s a collapse. That was also a bottom.
These are not predictions for the U.S., but I’m just saying that things have to usually get pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty bad.
It was similar in the United Kingdom. In 1918, the U.K. was the richest, most powerful country in the world. It had just won the First World War, et cetera. By 1939, it had exchange controls and this is in just one generation. And strict exchange controls. They in fact made it an act of treason for people to use anything except the pound sterling in settling debts.
(Q): Treason? Wow, I didn’t know that.
Rogers: Yes…an act of treason. It used to be that people could use anything they wanted as money. Gold or other metals. Banks would issue their own currencies. Anything. You could even use other people’s currencies.
Things were so bad in the U.K. in the 1930s they made it an act of treason to use anything except sterling and then by ’39 they had full-exchange controls. And then, of course, they had the war and that disaster. It was a disaster before the war. The war just exacerbated the problems. And by the mid-70s, the U.K. was bankrupt. They could not sell long-term government bonds. Remember, this is a country that two generations or three generations before had been the richest most powerful country in the world.
Now the only thing that saved the U.K. was the North Sea oil fields, even though Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher likes to take credit, but Margaret Thatcher has good PR. Margaret Thatcher came into office in 1979 and North Sea oil started flowing. And the U.K. suddenly had a huge balance-of-payment surplus.
You know, even if Mother Teresa had come in [as prime minister] in ’79, or Joseph Stalin, or whomever had come in 1979 – you know, Jimmy Carter, George Bush, whomever – it still would’ve been great.
You give me the largest oil field in the world and I’ll show you a good time, too. That’s what happened.
(Q): What if Thatcher had never come to power?
Rogers: Who knows, because the U.K. was in such disastrous straits when she came in. And that’s why she came to power…because it was such a disaster. I’m sure she would’ve made things better, but short of all that oil, the situation would’ve continued to decline.
So it may not be in our lifetimes that we’ll see the bottom, just given the U.K.’s history, for instance.
(Q): That’s going to be terrifying for individual investors to think about.
Rogers: Yeah. But remember that America had such a magnificent and gigantic position of dominance that deterioration will take time. You know, you don’t just change that in a decade or two. It takes a lot of hard work by a lot of incompetent people to change the situation. The U.K. situation I just explained…that decline was over 40 or 50 years, but they had so much money they could have continued to spiral downward for a long time.
Even Zimbabwe, you know, took 10 or 15 years to really get going into it’s collapse, but Robert Mugabe came into power in 1980 and, as recently as 1995, things still looked good for Zimbabwe. But now, of course, it’s a major disaster.
That’s one of the advantages of Singapore. The place has an astonishing amount of wealth and only 4 million people. So even if it started squandering it in 2008, which they may be, it’s going to take them forever to do so.
(Q): Is there a specific signal that this is "over?"
Rogers: Sure…when our entire U.S. cabinet has Swiss bank accounts. Linked inside bank accounts. When that happens, we’ll know we’re getting close because they’ll do it even after it’s illegal – after America’s put in the exchange controls.
(Q): They’ll move their own money.
Rogers: Yeah, because you look at people like the Israelis and the Argentineans and people who have had exchange controls – the politicians usually figured it out and have taken care of themselves on the side.
(Q): We saw that in South Africa and other countries, for example, as people tried to get their money out.
Rogers: Everybody figures it out, eventually, including the politicians. They say: "You know, others can’t do this, but it’s alright for us." Those days will come. I guess when all the congressmen have foreign bank accounts, we’ll be at the bottom.
But we’ve got a long way to go, yet
News and Related Story Links:
Money Morning Exclusive Jim Rogers Interview From Singapore (Part I): Jim Rogers: More Pain for the Greenback, and the Failure of the Federal Reserve.
Money Morning Exclusive Interview From Singapore (Part II):Jim Rogers: China’s Economic Advance is All But Unstoppable.
Wikipedia:Long-Term Capital Management.
CBS News:Dubai Firm Outlines Port Sales Plan.
Wikipedia:The Dot-Com Bubble.
The San Diego Union Tribune:Chinese Thwarted on Unocal Deal.
Wikipedia:The Great Depression.
Wikipedia:Paul Volcker.
Money Morning Financial Commentary:(Jimmy) Rogers and Me: The Latest Wisdom From a Global Investing Guru.
Wikipedia:North Sea Oil.
Wikipedia:U.S. Public Debt.
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/19/jim-rogers/
21/08/2008
Jim thinks that exchange control will happen in America and when politician has a swiss bank account, then the end of the credit crisis.
Jim also talk about UK in the 1970. Talks about Margaret Thatcher.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Monday, August 18, 2008
Soros boosts Lehman stake to 9.5 mln shares-filing
UPDATE 1-Soros boosts Lehman stake to 9.5 mln shares-filing
Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:16pm EDT
WASHINGTON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros hiked his stake in Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) to 9.5 million shares as of June 30 from 10,000 shares, according to a U.S. regulatory filing on Thursday.
Soros disclosed the quarter-over-quarter increase in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Soros raised his stake in Lehman ahead of a turbulent month for the investment bank, whose shares plunged in mid-July amid a broader sell-off in financials sparked by concern about government-backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
Lehman shares rose 63 cents, or 4.1 percent, to close at $16.20 before the news. They are down 18 percent since the end of June and off 75 percent so far this year.
A Lehman Brothers spokesman declined to comment. Officials at Soros' fund could not immediately be reached.
Based on Lehman's share count in its most recent quarterly filing, the 9.5 million shares would be equivalent to a 1.4 percent stake. (Reporting by John Poirier, editing by Mark Porter and Phil Berlowitz)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1449757120080814?rpc=44&sp=true
Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:16pm EDT
WASHINGTON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros hiked his stake in Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) to 9.5 million shares as of June 30 from 10,000 shares, according to a U.S. regulatory filing on Thursday.
Soros disclosed the quarter-over-quarter increase in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Soros raised his stake in Lehman ahead of a turbulent month for the investment bank, whose shares plunged in mid-July amid a broader sell-off in financials sparked by concern about government-backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
Lehman shares rose 63 cents, or 4.1 percent, to close at $16.20 before the news. They are down 18 percent since the end of June and off 75 percent so far this year.
A Lehman Brothers spokesman declined to comment. Officials at Soros' fund could not immediately be reached.
Based on Lehman's share count in its most recent quarterly filing, the 9.5 million shares would be equivalent to a 1.4 percent stake. (Reporting by John Poirier, editing by Mark Porter and Phil Berlowitz)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1449757120080814?rpc=44&sp=true
Don't lose heart on plunging commodities: Rogers
Don't lose heart on plunging commodities: Rogers
2008-08-16 08:45:00
Commodity OnlineMUMBAI: Commodity prices are plunging every day led by the free fall of the hot commodities like crude oil and gold. But don't lose heart on commodities and panic because this is how market behaves, says investing legend Jim Rogers.
Rogers told Commodity Online: "All markets all over the world in all asset classes have corrections all the time. That is how markets work."
Rogers, the best known global guru on commodities, said the commodities market is these days hit by the prospects of growth slowdown in countries like China and and the large-scame economic pessimism in the US and Europe.
On Friday, crude oil prices plunged further to $112.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In the last one month, crude oil has lost nearly $45. It had reached an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11. The dollar rose to 110.44 yen, the euro fell to $1.4670 and the pound dropped to $1.8628.
Gold for December delivery dropped $28.90 to $785.60 an ounce on Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver for December delivery plummeted $1.33 to $12.90 an ounce on the Nymex, while September copper fell 1.25 cents to $3.2925 a pound.
Rogers said that one reason for the decline in commodities prices is the strengthening dollar index. "Naturally, dollar-based commodities like metals, gold, silver, copper and platinum and several agricultural commodities have been falling. But I would say this is how market operates. So dont lose heart on commodities," he added.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Dont-lose-heart-on-plunging-commodities-Rogers-11140-3-1.html
2008-08-16 08:45:00
Commodity OnlineMUMBAI: Commodity prices are plunging every day led by the free fall of the hot commodities like crude oil and gold. But don't lose heart on commodities and panic because this is how market behaves, says investing legend Jim Rogers.
Rogers told Commodity Online: "All markets all over the world in all asset classes have corrections all the time. That is how markets work."
Rogers, the best known global guru on commodities, said the commodities market is these days hit by the prospects of growth slowdown in countries like China and and the large-scame economic pessimism in the US and Europe.
On Friday, crude oil prices plunged further to $112.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In the last one month, crude oil has lost nearly $45. It had reached an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11. The dollar rose to 110.44 yen, the euro fell to $1.4670 and the pound dropped to $1.8628.
Gold for December delivery dropped $28.90 to $785.60 an ounce on Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver for December delivery plummeted $1.33 to $12.90 an ounce on the Nymex, while September copper fell 1.25 cents to $3.2925 a pound.
Rogers said that one reason for the decline in commodities prices is the strengthening dollar index. "Naturally, dollar-based commodities like metals, gold, silver, copper and platinum and several agricultural commodities have been falling. But I would say this is how market operates. So dont lose heart on commodities," he added.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Dont-lose-heart-on-plunging-commodities-Rogers-11140-3-1.html
Thursday, August 14, 2008
A Danish fix for the US mortgage crisis
A Danish fix for the US mortgage crisis
By George Soros
Published: August 11 2008 19:21 Last updated: August 11 2008 19:21
The recent compromise struck between the Treasury and Democrats in Congress on the fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage guarantors, constitutes the worst of all possible worlds. The Treasury offered a blank cheque to come to the rescue, if necessary, but the managements of both companies were kept in place. They know that their survival depends on not drawing on that blank cheque. They will therefore do everything in their power to reduce the need for any new equity capital that would be dilutive. In short, as privately owned but undercapitalised financial institutions, the GSEs cannot fulfil their stated mission of providing stability, liquidity and affordability to the nation’s housing finance system.
In presentations to investors, which followed big quarterly losses, the GSEs said they would curtail purchases of mortgages and might shrink their holdings to preserve capital. They highlighted that fees from their insurance guarantee business had nearly doubled. They also improved the quality of new loans by focusing on borrowers with higher-quality credit, who put down greater down payments. This means that the GSEs have significantly increased the cost of mortgages and tightened lending standards.
EDITOR’S CHOICEIn depth: Freddie and Fannie - Aug-08Video: Francesco Guerrera on Fannie Mae - Aug-08Fannie Mae loses $2.3bn and cuts dividend - Aug-08Chris Giles: One way to heat up house prices - Aug-07Lex: Fred bare - Aug-06AIG and Freddie damp recovery hopes - Aug-07The problems in the banking system have left the two GSEs as the only game in town in the mortgage market. Their market share of new mortgages has doubled over the past year and is now close to 80 per cent. Much of the balance is accounted for by the Federal Housing Administration, a fully guaranteed government agency. As the two companies fight for survival and try to reduce their need for new capital, the availability and cost of mortgages in the US suffer. Coming at a time when the supply of houses is swollen by a rising tide of foreclosures, this is a recipe for disaster. House prices have already fallen sharply and will continue to fall unless mortgages are made available on more favourable terms to a broader group of people.
This compromise, or stalemate, practically ensures that house prices will overshoot on the downside. That, in turn, renders the policies of the GSEs self-defeating as lower house prices increase their losses and push them further into insolvency. The GSE crisis has merely been postponed, at a cost of making the housing crisis more severe.
Confidence in GSE-backed bonds has been shaken. The stocks remain under pressure. Markets are forcing officials to come up with a better solution. We need to recognise that the business model of the GSEs is fatally flawed. They are public/private partnerships in which the risks are borne by the public sector while profits accrue to the private sector: management and shareholders. The companies have been plagued by accounting problems and other irregularities; their managements have spent enormous sums lobbying Capitol Hill. This is not a business model that deserves to be perpetuated.
Fortunately, alternatives are available. Hank Paulson, the Treasury secretary, has suggested the use of covered bonds, a mortgage-financing vehicle popular in Europe. I would recommend the system of mortgage credit used in Denmark, where loan-to-value ratios and underwriting standards are strictly enforced by a single, strong regulator. These mortgages are transformed into instantly tradable bonds. Cover for the bonds is provided by both the mortgages and the credit of the financial institutions issuing them. The mortgages remain on the balance sheets of the issuers, eliminating the moral hazard inherent in the US system, which is based on earning fees from selling them on to the market.
The standardisation of mortgages in the Danish system promotes transparency and liquidity. Householders can prepay their mortgages at any time by buying the bonds. Since house values and bond prices tend to move in unison this arrangement reduces the danger of householders’ equity falling into negative territory. For the issuing banks, owning these bonds carries lower capital requirements so the bonds sell at a premium to ordinary covered bonds. This system has survived and provided affordable home mortgages since its creation shortly after the great Copenhagen fire of 1795.
I pioneered the introduction of the Danish system in Mexico with the support of Paul O’Neill, when he was Treasury secretary. With modification, it offers a long-term solution to providing affordable mortgages in the US.
The writer, author of The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, is chairman of Soros Fund Management, which has held and continues to hold short positions in GSEs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac770b58-67aa-11dd-8d3b-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
tjhinkh: Soros calls for covered bonds for martgages. This would reduce the equity falling into negative.
By George Soros
Published: August 11 2008 19:21 Last updated: August 11 2008 19:21
The recent compromise struck between the Treasury and Democrats in Congress on the fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage guarantors, constitutes the worst of all possible worlds. The Treasury offered a blank cheque to come to the rescue, if necessary, but the managements of both companies were kept in place. They know that their survival depends on not drawing on that blank cheque. They will therefore do everything in their power to reduce the need for any new equity capital that would be dilutive. In short, as privately owned but undercapitalised financial institutions, the GSEs cannot fulfil their stated mission of providing stability, liquidity and affordability to the nation’s housing finance system.
In presentations to investors, which followed big quarterly losses, the GSEs said they would curtail purchases of mortgages and might shrink their holdings to preserve capital. They highlighted that fees from their insurance guarantee business had nearly doubled. They also improved the quality of new loans by focusing on borrowers with higher-quality credit, who put down greater down payments. This means that the GSEs have significantly increased the cost of mortgages and tightened lending standards.
EDITOR’S CHOICEIn depth: Freddie and Fannie - Aug-08Video: Francesco Guerrera on Fannie Mae - Aug-08Fannie Mae loses $2.3bn and cuts dividend - Aug-08Chris Giles: One way to heat up house prices - Aug-07Lex: Fred bare - Aug-06AIG and Freddie damp recovery hopes - Aug-07The problems in the banking system have left the two GSEs as the only game in town in the mortgage market. Their market share of new mortgages has doubled over the past year and is now close to 80 per cent. Much of the balance is accounted for by the Federal Housing Administration, a fully guaranteed government agency. As the two companies fight for survival and try to reduce their need for new capital, the availability and cost of mortgages in the US suffer. Coming at a time when the supply of houses is swollen by a rising tide of foreclosures, this is a recipe for disaster. House prices have already fallen sharply and will continue to fall unless mortgages are made available on more favourable terms to a broader group of people.
This compromise, or stalemate, practically ensures that house prices will overshoot on the downside. That, in turn, renders the policies of the GSEs self-defeating as lower house prices increase their losses and push them further into insolvency. The GSE crisis has merely been postponed, at a cost of making the housing crisis more severe.
Confidence in GSE-backed bonds has been shaken. The stocks remain under pressure. Markets are forcing officials to come up with a better solution. We need to recognise that the business model of the GSEs is fatally flawed. They are public/private partnerships in which the risks are borne by the public sector while profits accrue to the private sector: management and shareholders. The companies have been plagued by accounting problems and other irregularities; their managements have spent enormous sums lobbying Capitol Hill. This is not a business model that deserves to be perpetuated.
Fortunately, alternatives are available. Hank Paulson, the Treasury secretary, has suggested the use of covered bonds, a mortgage-financing vehicle popular in Europe. I would recommend the system of mortgage credit used in Denmark, where loan-to-value ratios and underwriting standards are strictly enforced by a single, strong regulator. These mortgages are transformed into instantly tradable bonds. Cover for the bonds is provided by both the mortgages and the credit of the financial institutions issuing them. The mortgages remain on the balance sheets of the issuers, eliminating the moral hazard inherent in the US system, which is based on earning fees from selling them on to the market.
The standardisation of mortgages in the Danish system promotes transparency and liquidity. Householders can prepay their mortgages at any time by buying the bonds. Since house values and bond prices tend to move in unison this arrangement reduces the danger of householders’ equity falling into negative territory. For the issuing banks, owning these bonds carries lower capital requirements so the bonds sell at a premium to ordinary covered bonds. This system has survived and provided affordable home mortgages since its creation shortly after the great Copenhagen fire of 1795.
I pioneered the introduction of the Danish system in Mexico with the support of Paul O’Neill, when he was Treasury secretary. With modification, it offers a long-term solution to providing affordable mortgages in the US.
The writer, author of The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, is chairman of Soros Fund Management, which has held and continues to hold short positions in GSEs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac770b58-67aa-11dd-8d3b-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
tjhinkh: Soros calls for covered bonds for martgages. This would reduce the equity falling into negative.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Rogers Calls Fannie, Freddie Rescue 'Disaster'
Rogers Calls Fannie, Freddie Rescue 'Disaster' (Transcript)
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Ellen Braitman from Singapore about the U.S. government's efforts to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae, the outlook for financial stocks, the dollar and commodities, and his investment strategy.
(This is not a legal transcript. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.)
CAROL MASSAR, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Our next guest is the man who correctly predicted oil would reach $100 and gold $1,000. Here to join us with his outlook on energy, commodities, the dollar, the credit crisis, everything under the sun, including Fannie and Freddie, Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings. He comes to us from Singapore this morning.
Jim, good morning. So, what do you think about what the government is doing or proposing to do with Fannie and Freddie?
JIM ROGERS, CHAIRMAN OF ROGERS HOLDINGS: It's an unmitigated disaster. I don't know where these guys get the audacity to take our money, taxpayer money, and buy stock in Fannie Mae. I mean, what is this?
If that is what they are doing with our tax money, why don't they ask us? I didn't say, take my money, my tax money, and buy Fannie Mae. Give it back to us if that's what they are going to do with it.
And what are they doing guaranteeing their debt? The people who bought debt in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can read a prospectus. They can read it. It says it is not guaranteed by the government. Anybody who can read a balance sheet knew that both of those companies were a sham and they had problems.
Now, we have to bail out the Japanese? The Japanese owe hundreds of millions of dollars of this stuff and so we are going to bail out the Japanese and the Chinese and everybody else in the world? What is this?
And it ruins the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and it makes the dollar more vulnerable, and it increases inflation, and it drives down the dollar. Other than that, good morning.
MASSAR: Good morning. All right, so where do you think - all right. You have been very critical of the Fed and certainly some of the government moves here, Jim. So where do you think this is all leading us to?
ROGERS: It is leading to more and more rampant inflation. It is leading to a decline and the eventual demise of the United States dollar. And the FDIC this weekend used 10 percent of its assets to bail out a bank.
Anybody who has got money at Bank of America better make sure they don't have over $100,000, because 10 percent of the FDIC's assets just went there this morning.
MASSAR: Jim, a viewer e-mailed me last night, actually e-mailed Bloomberg, happens to be a mortgage banker and his question was for you. He is wondering if you covered your shorts Friday, especially in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
ROGERS: No, I have not covered my shorts. Obviously I should have, because you know they already are up 50 percent or something since then. If they go up a whole lot more, I will short more. They are basically insolvent. There is no question about that.
The government itself last week said the extra, the pool last week said that they are insolvent. Anybody who can read a balance sheet knows they are insolvent. So if they go up a lot, I will short more. If they go down, I will probably cover.
ELLEN BREITMAN, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Jim, it is Ellen Breitman here. I am looking at the Treasuries, which were little changed this morning. Now you have got the 10-year down 9/32s. Why are we not seeing more of a move in the Treasury market this morning? What should the investor reaction be on that front?
ROGERS: Well, I am short U.S. government bonds and I am short the long Treasuries, so for full disclosure, I think that most people are just sitting here confused and probably relieved at the moment and trying to figure out how this is going to work out.
But let me tell you how it is going to work out. It is going to mean the debt of the United States is going to be downgraded over the next few years. It means that U.S. government bonds are now going to become suspect down the line.
MASSAR: I want to go back to financials. So you mentioned Fannie and Freddie. Are you shorting most of the big names, be it Citigroup, Merrill Lynch? I mean, a lot of them are going to be reporting earnings this week or starting to, Jim. Do you not like any of the names here?
ROGERS: Carol, since I have been coming on your program, I have been short all the investment banks. I have been short Citibank, I have been short Fannie Mae, I am still short every one of them. I will cover them all some day, but some day is a long way from now.
If they rally, I will short some more. But no, why would anybody cover any of these stocks? They are all essentially in terrible, terrible financial shape.
MASSAR: You don't think we are getting to the end of this mess?
ROGERS: Well, Mr. Paulson said we have been coming to the end of it every month for the last year. I don't happen to agree with him.
MASSAR: What is your -
ROGERS: And Mr. Bernanke has also said we are coming to the end of it. Mr. Bernanke under oath told us before Congress that the housing crisis, that there was no problem in housing two years ago and three years ago. Mr. Bernanke under oath has been telling us for a while that everything is okay.
MASSAR: Jim, did we - I want to go back to Fannie and Freddie, if I may. I know I am jumping around here because there is a lot going on. I mean, did we have a choice though with Fannie and Freddie? I mean, they are responsible for what happened, the mortgages that are out there. I mean, could we have let them fail?
ROGERS: Carol, I know you always like to print money, you always like to bail out everybody in sight. But that is not the way capitalism is supposed to work. That is socialism for the rich. That is what that is. Welfare for the rich. Of course not.
Now, if we don't let Fannie Mae go broke and we are not, obviously, what is going to happen when you Band-Aid and put some Band-Aids on it for another year or two or three? What is going to happen three years from now when the situation is much, much, much worse? Then somewhere along the line, the market is going to hit us and we are not going to be able to do anything if we keep bailing out everybody in sight.
The Federal Reserve has already extended its balance sheet so desperately that they have trouble.
MASSAR: So very critical, Jim, of what the government is proposing to do with Fannie and Freddie. But yet, investors seem to like it and you have got the dollar moving up, so there seems to be a lot of support out there.
ROGERS: Well, of course investors in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac like it. The companies were going to go bankrupt if they hadn't stepped in to do something and they should have gone bankrupt, all the mistakes they made.
I would like to know why the people at Fannie Mae aren't in jail right now, the people at Freddie Mac aren't in jail.
MASSAR: But why is - Jim, why is the -
ROGERS: You know, a lot of people have gone to jail for fraud and scams.
MASSAR: Jim, why is the dollar up, though, this morning?
ROGERS: Well, I suspect it is because there is so many shorts. Everybody is negative on the dollar, including me, and whenever you have everybody on the same side of a trade, something comes along and you have a big rally. The shorts are covered. It is the way markets have worked for a few hundred years.
MASSAR: Are you still negative on the dollar at this point?
ROGERS: I just said everybody in the world is negative on the dollar, including me. So it is bound to rally, it could rally for another few weeks, few months. How do I know? I hope that if it does rally more this year that I will use that rally to get out of the rest of my U.S. dollars. The dollar is a terribly flawed currency, Carol.
MASSAR: Yes. And that is based on what - what about your expectations for interest rates around the world? I mean, there has been a bit of a debate now about what the Fed may do, but you have certainly seen governments around the globe raising rates to combat inflation. What is your outlook there?
ROGERS: Well, you are going to see higher rates. I am short United States government bonds, long bonds, because rates are going to go higher. The U.S. government says there is no inflation, but the rest - everybody else in the world knows there is inflation.
Most governments don't lie about it any more. They know they cannot lie about them. Inflation - the U.K. just a few minutes ago said they have the highest rate of inflation since 1986. Everybody does, and the U.K. is one of the governments that usually lies about it. So if they are saying it is that bad, you know it is really bad.
MASSAR: So, Jim, how do you think this is all going to be playing out? I mean, you are over there in Singapore, you are watching this. I mean, what is your expectations, first of all, for the U.S. and the economy here in the next, what, six to 12 months - and the markets, if you will?
ROGERS: Well, the United States is in a recession. It is going to be the worst recession we have had in a long time, perhaps since the Second World War, because the federal government keeps making mistakes. The central bank makes mistakes, the Treasury makes mistakes. Everybody keeps making mistakes.
It is going to be one of the worst. It is like Arthur Burns in the 1970s, he kept making mistakes and he had a horrible time. It's like the Bank of Japan in the 1990s, they kept making mistakes and in Japan, they still call up the '90s the ?Lost Decade.?
BREITMAN: Jim, it is Ellen Breitman again. I want to ask you a question I asked an earlier guest today, which is, when you look back over your entire career, how do this play out in terms of the level of history that is being made, Friday, Sunday, and today?
ROGERS: Well, it's a very good question and the answer, I don't think I want to give you the answer because you will probably cut me off the air. What is happening here is they are ruining the value of the U.S. dollar. They are ruining the Federal Reserve. They are ruining what has been one of the greatest economies in the world, bailing out everybody in sight.
This is a disaster for America. This is a disaster for the world. Ben Bernanke and Paulson are bailing out their friends on Wall Street, but there are 300 million of us Americans who are going to have to pay for this and there are six billion people in the world who are going to have to pay for this. And they are doing it with no authorization from anybody.
Paul Volcker said a couple of weeks ago that perhaps what the Federal Reserve has done is illegal. I would submit it is illegal what they have done and what they are doing. They are saddling all of us with hundreds of billions of dollars of debt that they have no authorization to do.
MASSAR: So, Jim, if this had been another industry, take your pick, I mean, look at the woes that we have seen in the housing industry, you don't think the government would have jumped in so quickly to help out?
ROGERS: Well, I have no idea. They jumped in once before and helped out Pfizer 25 years ago, 30 years ago. Who knows? Conceivably, it depends on how many votes they think they can get. If they can buy some votes and right now, they are trying to make all their friends on Wall Street happy. But that is not good for anybody else but Wall Street.
Ben Bernanke picks up the phone every time Wall Street calls. Paulson picks up the phone every time Wall Street calls. You don't see any firemen out there in Nebraska calling him up. You don't see anybody out there with a real job. You don't see any schoolteachers in Oregon calling him up. If they did, they wouldn't take the call.
But all the schoolteachers in Oregon know that prices are going through the roof. It is very difficult for them to stay alive these days and hold body and soul together. They don't care. They take the calls from Bear Stearns. They take the call from Lehman Brothers.
MASSAR: Jim, you know, you sound so negative here. I mean, in terms of the U.S., anything you like within the U.S. market?
ROGERS: Sure. There are plenty of things that you can like in the United States market. I own - I have been buying airline stocks recently. I haven't bought any in the U.S. at the moment, but I have been buying airlines around the world. I have been buying agriculture.
I mean, America is the largest producer of agricultural goods in the world. I love agriculture, I love farmers. I wish everybody else did too.
MASSAR: Speaking of farmers, we know you love commodities. What about this commodity boom? I think recently we talked to you and or I was reading something and it said that we are in the fourth inning of a baseball game. Still there, in your view?
ROGERS: Probably around the fourth inning, that sounds good enough. Maybe the fourth and a half, maybe the top or the bottom of the fifth, something like that. The commodities bull market has a long way to go.
There are going to be corrections along the way, Carol, there always are, but no, nobody has discovered any major oil field in over 40 years. There just aren't any supplies of anything.
MASSAR: Jim, what do you make though of the arguments out there about demand destruction, about a weakening global economy and that is going to start to bring down commodities. I know you talk about some near-term corrections.
So, anything out there though that will substantially drag down commodities, in your view?
ROGERS: Well, recession, if the world goes into recession, of course it is going to drag down the demand. But remember, Carol, in the 1970s we had one of the worst decades in a long time for the economy. And oil went up ten times, the oil commodity, we had one of the great bull markets of all time in commodities because supply went down faster than demand and that is what is happening now too.
Oil can go down - you know the bull market in oil started in 1999. Three times since 1999, oil has gone down over 40 percent. It wasn't the end of the bull market. It just scared the socks off everybody, including me. That can happen again, but it is not the end of the bull market.
MASSAR: So, any pullbacks for a buying opportunity, in your view, whether it is oil, whether it is grains, whether it is base metals?
ROGERS: Yes, of course. Everything. Base metals have already corrected a lot. Wheat has corrected a lot. Sugar has corrected a lot. Get yourself some sugar, take it home, take it home from your Bloomberg.
MASSAR: Let's get back to our guest, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. So, Jim, got a favorite commodity at this point?
ROGERS: No, nothing really pops into my mind. Agriculture still, some of the base metals I am looking at. Some of the base metals, Dr. Nickel and Dr. Zinc saw the recession coming long before Dr. Bernanke did and they realized that there was problems. They are down 60 percent or something.
So, I am contemplating, only contemplating and only noticing that they are down. Some of these things are down a good amount.
MASSAR: What are you waiting for to buy in?
ROGERS: I don't know, some kind of signal that they have made a bottom. Some kind of panic selling, for instance. And also watching Taiwan and China on the same basis, if we could have panic selling in an old-fashioned selling climax in Taiwan or China, I would buy both of them as well.
MASSAR: You know, the CSI 300 is down 45 percent this year, the second worst performing major benchmark tracked by Bloomberg. Why are we seeing such a pullback?
ROGERS: Well, the market went up a huge amount in the previous two years and the Chinese government acknowledges that there is terrible inflation in China. They are doing their best to cut it back. They have raised interest rates seven times in the last year. They have raised reserve requirements 15 times.
The United States central bank has cut interest rates seven times. They have thrown gasoline onto a raging inflationary fire.
MASSAR: Are you selling any of your Chinese holdings?
ROGERS: No, never sold any Chinese shares. Own them all. I hope that my daughters own them some day. I think China has got a fabulous future. Selling China in 2008 would be like selling America in 1908, just as we were on the verge of becoming a fantastic, great success story.
MASSAR: So, Jim, I am guessing, and tell me if I am wrong, though, as a pullback in Chinese shares, do you see that as a buying opportunity?
ROGERS: Well, if they have a selling climax, yes. And probably the best opportunity will be Taiwan, because for the first time in my life, there is going to be peace in Taiwan. And so that whole economy, that whole nation is now going to have a dramatic change and it will be great for the world, but certainly for Taiwan.
BREITMAN: Jim, it is Ellen again. I am curious in terms of commodities, just switching back there. So much government intervention when it comes to the financials, do you think we could see any kind of government intervention when it comes to commodities or trying to talk down some of these prices?
ROGERS: Of course we can. Do you remember 1929? They passed the Smoot-Hawley Act, which led to the Great Depression, even though 1,000 economists went on record as saying you are making a terrible mistake. Politicians did it anyway.
Remember the weapons of mass destruction? We invaded Iraq because of weapons of mass destruction. Of course, politicians can do all kinds of simple, stupid things.
The IPO market has been driven out of America now because American politicians passed some absurd laws. They will probably do something. It will drive the commodities trade outside the U.S.
You know, the United States has dominated the commodities business for over 100 years. If the Congress of the United States is about to give the world on a silver platter and say; ?Here, take what you want. We are going to give you the commodities-trading business, it is going to leave America.?
At the same time, the politicians are saying pension funds can't invest in commodities. University endowments cannot invest in commodities. At a time where there is terrible inflation, they are going to say to the pension plans, you cannot protect yourselves from inflation, too bad. And I'd do that.
MASSAR: Jim, just 30-
ROGERS: It is insane, but they will do it.
MASSAR: 30 seconds left here. I know you mentioned you are kind of looking, eyeing at base metals. Anything else you think investors should be looking at, just kind of keeping on their radar, just quickly if you could?
ROGERS: Agriculture, agriculture. You should be buying agriculture. I am buying agriculture.
MASSAR: All right. We are going to leave it on that note. Jim, as always, good to get some time with you. Have a great day. Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings.
***END OF TRANSCRIPT***
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apEivHJhf1vE
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIQvD7yNni2I.asf
tjhinkh: Jim still short on US financial. He looking to buy Chinese/Taiwan shares if there is a panic selling. He is looking at 1 to 6 months timeframe.
Jim also short on US bonds and Treasuries.
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Ellen Braitman from Singapore about the U.S. government's efforts to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae, the outlook for financial stocks, the dollar and commodities, and his investment strategy.
(This is not a legal transcript. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.)
CAROL MASSAR, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Our next guest is the man who correctly predicted oil would reach $100 and gold $1,000. Here to join us with his outlook on energy, commodities, the dollar, the credit crisis, everything under the sun, including Fannie and Freddie, Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings. He comes to us from Singapore this morning.
Jim, good morning. So, what do you think about what the government is doing or proposing to do with Fannie and Freddie?
JIM ROGERS, CHAIRMAN OF ROGERS HOLDINGS: It's an unmitigated disaster. I don't know where these guys get the audacity to take our money, taxpayer money, and buy stock in Fannie Mae. I mean, what is this?
If that is what they are doing with our tax money, why don't they ask us? I didn't say, take my money, my tax money, and buy Fannie Mae. Give it back to us if that's what they are going to do with it.
And what are they doing guaranteeing their debt? The people who bought debt in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can read a prospectus. They can read it. It says it is not guaranteed by the government. Anybody who can read a balance sheet knew that both of those companies were a sham and they had problems.
Now, we have to bail out the Japanese? The Japanese owe hundreds of millions of dollars of this stuff and so we are going to bail out the Japanese and the Chinese and everybody else in the world? What is this?
And it ruins the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and it makes the dollar more vulnerable, and it increases inflation, and it drives down the dollar. Other than that, good morning.
MASSAR: Good morning. All right, so where do you think - all right. You have been very critical of the Fed and certainly some of the government moves here, Jim. So where do you think this is all leading us to?
ROGERS: It is leading to more and more rampant inflation. It is leading to a decline and the eventual demise of the United States dollar. And the FDIC this weekend used 10 percent of its assets to bail out a bank.
Anybody who has got money at Bank of America better make sure they don't have over $100,000, because 10 percent of the FDIC's assets just went there this morning.
MASSAR: Jim, a viewer e-mailed me last night, actually e-mailed Bloomberg, happens to be a mortgage banker and his question was for you. He is wondering if you covered your shorts Friday, especially in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
ROGERS: No, I have not covered my shorts. Obviously I should have, because you know they already are up 50 percent or something since then. If they go up a whole lot more, I will short more. They are basically insolvent. There is no question about that.
The government itself last week said the extra, the pool last week said that they are insolvent. Anybody who can read a balance sheet knows they are insolvent. So if they go up a lot, I will short more. If they go down, I will probably cover.
ELLEN BREITMAN, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Jim, it is Ellen Breitman here. I am looking at the Treasuries, which were little changed this morning. Now you have got the 10-year down 9/32s. Why are we not seeing more of a move in the Treasury market this morning? What should the investor reaction be on that front?
ROGERS: Well, I am short U.S. government bonds and I am short the long Treasuries, so for full disclosure, I think that most people are just sitting here confused and probably relieved at the moment and trying to figure out how this is going to work out.
But let me tell you how it is going to work out. It is going to mean the debt of the United States is going to be downgraded over the next few years. It means that U.S. government bonds are now going to become suspect down the line.
MASSAR: I want to go back to financials. So you mentioned Fannie and Freddie. Are you shorting most of the big names, be it Citigroup, Merrill Lynch? I mean, a lot of them are going to be reporting earnings this week or starting to, Jim. Do you not like any of the names here?
ROGERS: Carol, since I have been coming on your program, I have been short all the investment banks. I have been short Citibank, I have been short Fannie Mae, I am still short every one of them. I will cover them all some day, but some day is a long way from now.
If they rally, I will short some more. But no, why would anybody cover any of these stocks? They are all essentially in terrible, terrible financial shape.
MASSAR: You don't think we are getting to the end of this mess?
ROGERS: Well, Mr. Paulson said we have been coming to the end of it every month for the last year. I don't happen to agree with him.
MASSAR: What is your -
ROGERS: And Mr. Bernanke has also said we are coming to the end of it. Mr. Bernanke under oath told us before Congress that the housing crisis, that there was no problem in housing two years ago and three years ago. Mr. Bernanke under oath has been telling us for a while that everything is okay.
MASSAR: Jim, did we - I want to go back to Fannie and Freddie, if I may. I know I am jumping around here because there is a lot going on. I mean, did we have a choice though with Fannie and Freddie? I mean, they are responsible for what happened, the mortgages that are out there. I mean, could we have let them fail?
ROGERS: Carol, I know you always like to print money, you always like to bail out everybody in sight. But that is not the way capitalism is supposed to work. That is socialism for the rich. That is what that is. Welfare for the rich. Of course not.
Now, if we don't let Fannie Mae go broke and we are not, obviously, what is going to happen when you Band-Aid and put some Band-Aids on it for another year or two or three? What is going to happen three years from now when the situation is much, much, much worse? Then somewhere along the line, the market is going to hit us and we are not going to be able to do anything if we keep bailing out everybody in sight.
The Federal Reserve has already extended its balance sheet so desperately that they have trouble.
MASSAR: So very critical, Jim, of what the government is proposing to do with Fannie and Freddie. But yet, investors seem to like it and you have got the dollar moving up, so there seems to be a lot of support out there.
ROGERS: Well, of course investors in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac like it. The companies were going to go bankrupt if they hadn't stepped in to do something and they should have gone bankrupt, all the mistakes they made.
I would like to know why the people at Fannie Mae aren't in jail right now, the people at Freddie Mac aren't in jail.
MASSAR: But why is - Jim, why is the -
ROGERS: You know, a lot of people have gone to jail for fraud and scams.
MASSAR: Jim, why is the dollar up, though, this morning?
ROGERS: Well, I suspect it is because there is so many shorts. Everybody is negative on the dollar, including me, and whenever you have everybody on the same side of a trade, something comes along and you have a big rally. The shorts are covered. It is the way markets have worked for a few hundred years.
MASSAR: Are you still negative on the dollar at this point?
ROGERS: I just said everybody in the world is negative on the dollar, including me. So it is bound to rally, it could rally for another few weeks, few months. How do I know? I hope that if it does rally more this year that I will use that rally to get out of the rest of my U.S. dollars. The dollar is a terribly flawed currency, Carol.
MASSAR: Yes. And that is based on what - what about your expectations for interest rates around the world? I mean, there has been a bit of a debate now about what the Fed may do, but you have certainly seen governments around the globe raising rates to combat inflation. What is your outlook there?
ROGERS: Well, you are going to see higher rates. I am short United States government bonds, long bonds, because rates are going to go higher. The U.S. government says there is no inflation, but the rest - everybody else in the world knows there is inflation.
Most governments don't lie about it any more. They know they cannot lie about them. Inflation - the U.K. just a few minutes ago said they have the highest rate of inflation since 1986. Everybody does, and the U.K. is one of the governments that usually lies about it. So if they are saying it is that bad, you know it is really bad.
MASSAR: So, Jim, how do you think this is all going to be playing out? I mean, you are over there in Singapore, you are watching this. I mean, what is your expectations, first of all, for the U.S. and the economy here in the next, what, six to 12 months - and the markets, if you will?
ROGERS: Well, the United States is in a recession. It is going to be the worst recession we have had in a long time, perhaps since the Second World War, because the federal government keeps making mistakes. The central bank makes mistakes, the Treasury makes mistakes. Everybody keeps making mistakes.
It is going to be one of the worst. It is like Arthur Burns in the 1970s, he kept making mistakes and he had a horrible time. It's like the Bank of Japan in the 1990s, they kept making mistakes and in Japan, they still call up the '90s the ?Lost Decade.?
BREITMAN: Jim, it is Ellen Breitman again. I want to ask you a question I asked an earlier guest today, which is, when you look back over your entire career, how do this play out in terms of the level of history that is being made, Friday, Sunday, and today?
ROGERS: Well, it's a very good question and the answer, I don't think I want to give you the answer because you will probably cut me off the air. What is happening here is they are ruining the value of the U.S. dollar. They are ruining the Federal Reserve. They are ruining what has been one of the greatest economies in the world, bailing out everybody in sight.
This is a disaster for America. This is a disaster for the world. Ben Bernanke and Paulson are bailing out their friends on Wall Street, but there are 300 million of us Americans who are going to have to pay for this and there are six billion people in the world who are going to have to pay for this. And they are doing it with no authorization from anybody.
Paul Volcker said a couple of weeks ago that perhaps what the Federal Reserve has done is illegal. I would submit it is illegal what they have done and what they are doing. They are saddling all of us with hundreds of billions of dollars of debt that they have no authorization to do.
MASSAR: So, Jim, if this had been another industry, take your pick, I mean, look at the woes that we have seen in the housing industry, you don't think the government would have jumped in so quickly to help out?
ROGERS: Well, I have no idea. They jumped in once before and helped out Pfizer 25 years ago, 30 years ago. Who knows? Conceivably, it depends on how many votes they think they can get. If they can buy some votes and right now, they are trying to make all their friends on Wall Street happy. But that is not good for anybody else but Wall Street.
Ben Bernanke picks up the phone every time Wall Street calls. Paulson picks up the phone every time Wall Street calls. You don't see any firemen out there in Nebraska calling him up. You don't see anybody out there with a real job. You don't see any schoolteachers in Oregon calling him up. If they did, they wouldn't take the call.
But all the schoolteachers in Oregon know that prices are going through the roof. It is very difficult for them to stay alive these days and hold body and soul together. They don't care. They take the calls from Bear Stearns. They take the call from Lehman Brothers.
MASSAR: Jim, you know, you sound so negative here. I mean, in terms of the U.S., anything you like within the U.S. market?
ROGERS: Sure. There are plenty of things that you can like in the United States market. I own - I have been buying airline stocks recently. I haven't bought any in the U.S. at the moment, but I have been buying airlines around the world. I have been buying agriculture.
I mean, America is the largest producer of agricultural goods in the world. I love agriculture, I love farmers. I wish everybody else did too.
MASSAR: Speaking of farmers, we know you love commodities. What about this commodity boom? I think recently we talked to you and or I was reading something and it said that we are in the fourth inning of a baseball game. Still there, in your view?
ROGERS: Probably around the fourth inning, that sounds good enough. Maybe the fourth and a half, maybe the top or the bottom of the fifth, something like that. The commodities bull market has a long way to go.
There are going to be corrections along the way, Carol, there always are, but no, nobody has discovered any major oil field in over 40 years. There just aren't any supplies of anything.
MASSAR: Jim, what do you make though of the arguments out there about demand destruction, about a weakening global economy and that is going to start to bring down commodities. I know you talk about some near-term corrections.
So, anything out there though that will substantially drag down commodities, in your view?
ROGERS: Well, recession, if the world goes into recession, of course it is going to drag down the demand. But remember, Carol, in the 1970s we had one of the worst decades in a long time for the economy. And oil went up ten times, the oil commodity, we had one of the great bull markets of all time in commodities because supply went down faster than demand and that is what is happening now too.
Oil can go down - you know the bull market in oil started in 1999. Three times since 1999, oil has gone down over 40 percent. It wasn't the end of the bull market. It just scared the socks off everybody, including me. That can happen again, but it is not the end of the bull market.
MASSAR: So, any pullbacks for a buying opportunity, in your view, whether it is oil, whether it is grains, whether it is base metals?
ROGERS: Yes, of course. Everything. Base metals have already corrected a lot. Wheat has corrected a lot. Sugar has corrected a lot. Get yourself some sugar, take it home, take it home from your Bloomberg.
MASSAR: Let's get back to our guest, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. So, Jim, got a favorite commodity at this point?
ROGERS: No, nothing really pops into my mind. Agriculture still, some of the base metals I am looking at. Some of the base metals, Dr. Nickel and Dr. Zinc saw the recession coming long before Dr. Bernanke did and they realized that there was problems. They are down 60 percent or something.
So, I am contemplating, only contemplating and only noticing that they are down. Some of these things are down a good amount.
MASSAR: What are you waiting for to buy in?
ROGERS: I don't know, some kind of signal that they have made a bottom. Some kind of panic selling, for instance. And also watching Taiwan and China on the same basis, if we could have panic selling in an old-fashioned selling climax in Taiwan or China, I would buy both of them as well.
MASSAR: You know, the CSI 300 is down 45 percent this year, the second worst performing major benchmark tracked by Bloomberg. Why are we seeing such a pullback?
ROGERS: Well, the market went up a huge amount in the previous two years and the Chinese government acknowledges that there is terrible inflation in China. They are doing their best to cut it back. They have raised interest rates seven times in the last year. They have raised reserve requirements 15 times.
The United States central bank has cut interest rates seven times. They have thrown gasoline onto a raging inflationary fire.
MASSAR: Are you selling any of your Chinese holdings?
ROGERS: No, never sold any Chinese shares. Own them all. I hope that my daughters own them some day. I think China has got a fabulous future. Selling China in 2008 would be like selling America in 1908, just as we were on the verge of becoming a fantastic, great success story.
MASSAR: So, Jim, I am guessing, and tell me if I am wrong, though, as a pullback in Chinese shares, do you see that as a buying opportunity?
ROGERS: Well, if they have a selling climax, yes. And probably the best opportunity will be Taiwan, because for the first time in my life, there is going to be peace in Taiwan. And so that whole economy, that whole nation is now going to have a dramatic change and it will be great for the world, but certainly for Taiwan.
BREITMAN: Jim, it is Ellen again. I am curious in terms of commodities, just switching back there. So much government intervention when it comes to the financials, do you think we could see any kind of government intervention when it comes to commodities or trying to talk down some of these prices?
ROGERS: Of course we can. Do you remember 1929? They passed the Smoot-Hawley Act, which led to the Great Depression, even though 1,000 economists went on record as saying you are making a terrible mistake. Politicians did it anyway.
Remember the weapons of mass destruction? We invaded Iraq because of weapons of mass destruction. Of course, politicians can do all kinds of simple, stupid things.
The IPO market has been driven out of America now because American politicians passed some absurd laws. They will probably do something. It will drive the commodities trade outside the U.S.
You know, the United States has dominated the commodities business for over 100 years. If the Congress of the United States is about to give the world on a silver platter and say; ?Here, take what you want. We are going to give you the commodities-trading business, it is going to leave America.?
At the same time, the politicians are saying pension funds can't invest in commodities. University endowments cannot invest in commodities. At a time where there is terrible inflation, they are going to say to the pension plans, you cannot protect yourselves from inflation, too bad. And I'd do that.
MASSAR: Jim, just 30-
ROGERS: It is insane, but they will do it.
MASSAR: 30 seconds left here. I know you mentioned you are kind of looking, eyeing at base metals. Anything else you think investors should be looking at, just kind of keeping on their radar, just quickly if you could?
ROGERS: Agriculture, agriculture. You should be buying agriculture. I am buying agriculture.
MASSAR: All right. We are going to leave it on that note. Jim, as always, good to get some time with you. Have a great day. Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings.
***END OF TRANSCRIPT***
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apEivHJhf1vE
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIQvD7yNni2I.asf
tjhinkh: Jim still short on US financial. He looking to buy Chinese/Taiwan shares if there is a panic selling. He is looking at 1 to 6 months timeframe.
Jim also short on US bonds and Treasuries.
Gold And Oil For Soros
Gold And Oil For Soros
Wealth destruction took a day off Wednesday as illiquidity surfaced as a top issue at a major investment bank.
The market rallied in the wake of a lower oil price, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised that Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM - news - people ) and Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ) were solvent, and new rules began to lean against avaricious short-sellers of bank shares.
Undoubtedly, this spike in bank shares was due in large part to hedge funds, which began covering some of the massive short positions they've built up over the past 18 months. For example, billionaire George Soros--Croesus was told--has covered much of his shorts in financial stocks. Why chance another public policy move by regulators to shut off this automatic feeding trough?
Soros finally shorted oil at $137 a barrel and put on a long position in gold; he expects to see gold hold its ground even if oil continues to decline. In fact, the gold bug clique believes in a consistent 10-to-1 ratio for gold and oil. It holds that either gold will rise to 10 times a barrel of oil ($1,350 an ounce) or oil will fall to $96 a barrel--one-tenth the present market price of gold. Croesus was told Tuesday that statistics spanning many decades support, on average, this 10-to-1 ratio
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/07/16/soros-gold-merrill-oped-cx_rl_0717croesus.html
http://www.forbes.com/video/?video=fvn/streettalk/bl_st_soros050708b&partner=contextual
tjhinkh: Soros short Oil at US$137 and long gold. He also mentioned about the bear market rally in May 2008 (refer second link). That was a correct call.
Wealth destruction took a day off Wednesday as illiquidity surfaced as a top issue at a major investment bank.
The market rallied in the wake of a lower oil price, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised that Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM - news - people ) and Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ) were solvent, and new rules began to lean against avaricious short-sellers of bank shares.
Undoubtedly, this spike in bank shares was due in large part to hedge funds, which began covering some of the massive short positions they've built up over the past 18 months. For example, billionaire George Soros--Croesus was told--has covered much of his shorts in financial stocks. Why chance another public policy move by regulators to shut off this automatic feeding trough?
Soros finally shorted oil at $137 a barrel and put on a long position in gold; he expects to see gold hold its ground even if oil continues to decline. In fact, the gold bug clique believes in a consistent 10-to-1 ratio for gold and oil. It holds that either gold will rise to 10 times a barrel of oil ($1,350 an ounce) or oil will fall to $96 a barrel--one-tenth the present market price of gold. Croesus was told Tuesday that statistics spanning many decades support, on average, this 10-to-1 ratio
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/07/16/soros-gold-merrill-oped-cx_rl_0717croesus.html
http://www.forbes.com/video/?video=fvn/streettalk/bl_st_soros050708b&partner=contextual
tjhinkh: Soros short Oil at US$137 and long gold. He also mentioned about the bear market rally in May 2008 (refer second link). That was a correct call.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Jim Rogers: Here's What I'm Buying
Jim Rogers: Here's What I'm Buying
Jim Rogers has a sector pick -- and a major pan: The CEO of Rogers Holdings told CNBC that the government should not bail out Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, but should let them fail.
The Treasury Department and Federal Reserve said they would bolster Fannie and Freddie with vast infusions of aid. But Rogers believes that will only prolong economic weakness, increase the budget deficit -- and destroy the effectiveness of such rescue measures when they're really needed.
"In two years or three years, when six or eight other [institutions] are failing, America won't have any more bullets left," he said.
Rogers noted that he's "been short Fannie Mae since I came here three years ago or four years ago," adding that "I'm short lots of banks."
Recommendations:
So what does the investor like?
Rogers said he was investing in airlines, which have seen tough times due to soaring fuel costs -- and fears of further increases in oil prices.
"I am buying airlines. If you fly a lot, you'll see that you can't get a seat, the rates are going higher. The capacity is going down and the demand is still there," Rogers said.
Disclosures:
Disclosures information was not immediately available for Rogers or for his firm.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25689691
tjhinkh: Jim also mention that Asia stock market is going through what looks like a climax selling.
Jim Rogers has a sector pick -- and a major pan: The CEO of Rogers Holdings told CNBC that the government should not bail out Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, but should let them fail.
The Treasury Department and Federal Reserve said they would bolster Fannie and Freddie with vast infusions of aid. But Rogers believes that will only prolong economic weakness, increase the budget deficit -- and destroy the effectiveness of such rescue measures when they're really needed.
"In two years or three years, when six or eight other [institutions] are failing, America won't have any more bullets left," he said.
Rogers noted that he's "been short Fannie Mae since I came here three years ago or four years ago," adding that "I'm short lots of banks."
Recommendations:
So what does the investor like?
Rogers said he was investing in airlines, which have seen tough times due to soaring fuel costs -- and fears of further increases in oil prices.
"I am buying airlines. If you fly a lot, you'll see that you can't get a seat, the rates are going higher. The capacity is going down and the demand is still there," Rogers said.
Disclosures:
Disclosures information was not immediately available for Rogers or for his firm.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25689691
tjhinkh: Jim also mention that Asia stock market is going through what looks like a climax selling.
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