Jim Rogers Calls Paulson's Plan `Welfare for the Rich'

Jim Rogers Calls Paulson's Plan `Welfare for the Rich'

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu about Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion plan to remove illiquid assets from the banking system, his investment strategy in Chinese equities, and the position of the presidential candidates regarding the turmoil in the financial markets. (Source: Bloomberg) 00:00 Bailout is "welfare for the rich," outlook
01:59 Alternatives: "let some people go bankrupt"
03:36 Strategy: Chinese equities, overseas airlines
05:02 Buffett's stake in Goldman; outlook for oil
06:56 Presidential candidates: "embarrassing"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.19dE1GSk5s

mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vbGb5KNYrBKo.asf

26/09/2008
tjhinkh:
Cover Home Builder, Banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
Still short investment banks.
Just bought the following last week:
Chinese Shares, Airlines (outside US), Japanese Yen, Swiss Frank
Maybe he sold his USD assest and bought the above.

Warren Buffet buy Goldman because he got a good price for it. Jim would have bought it too for that price. (What is the price Buffet got?)
Maket will rebound after Hank Paulson rescued Wall Street. People will make money for a few years.
I got the perception that this is the market bottom.

13/10/2008

Jim has not liquidated his USD assest as I suspect that he would.

For, Against Uncle Sam's Bailout

For, Against Uncle Sam's Bailout
By DAN DORFMAN
September 22, 2008

The exact details have yet to be spelled out, but an internationally known global money manager, Jim Rogers, a transplanted New Yorker now residing in Singapore, is denouncing Uncle Sam's estimated $700 billion rescue package, saying he's convinced the fallout from the bailout would be disastrous.

"It's astonishing, devastating, and very harmful for America and American citizens," he tells me. "It means we're in for the worst recession since World War II, as well as higher long-term interest rates, higher inflation, higher taxes, a weaker dollar and substantially lower stock prices."

That's his reaction to the government's efforts to relieve the banks of hundreds of billions of dollars of bad debts and revitalize the floundering credit markets by injecting a heavy dose of fresh new liquidity into the financial system.

Addressing the explosive two-day Dow Jones Industrial Average rally of nearly 779 points, Mr. Rogers ridicules the buying binge, insisting that investors "were foolishly sucked in by hysteria and a buying panic. I wouldn't buy now because it's insane." Describing the rise as artificial and unsustainable, he contends "it's only a matter of time before reality sets in and the market heads down again." Making matters worse, he says, it's "embarrassing to see how little the presidential candidates know or grasp what's going on, just like the current administration."

Mr. Rogers, one of Wall Street's great success stories — he made millions working with George Soros in the 1960s and 1970s — evokes the 1970s, when a Federal Reserve chairman, Arthur Burns, wouldn't let anyone fail, and insists we're making the same mistake again.
The 65-year-old manager presently owns some dollars and says he thought the recent greenback rally would continue. "Now I'm not so sure, that rally may be over," he says. Mr. Rogers has covered his short sales — a bet stock prices will fall — on Fannie Mae, Citigroup, and some companies in the homebuilder sector. On the buy side, he recently began to acquire stocks in China and Taiwan.

http://www.nysun.com/business/for-against-uncle-sams-bailout/86297/

23/09/2008
Jim has been lookng for USD rally, but with the 700b bailout, he was not so sure anymore. That rally may be over.

Central banks join forces over credit squeeze

Central banks join forces over credit squeeze

Central banks around the world are pumping billions of dollars into money markets in a coordinated bid to calm global financial upheaval.
The package of up to $247 billion comes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan.
The injection of cash, which amounts to an expansion of up to $180 billion in available funds, is an effort to fuel economic activity.
With major financial and insurance institutions teetering, commercial banks have tightened their lending policies and increased interest rates, taking billions of dollars out of the economy.
Under the plan, the European Central Bank will inject up to $110 billion, the Swiss National Bank up to $27 billion, the Bank of Japan up to $60 billion, the Bank of England up to $40 billion and the Bank of Canada up to $10 billion.
"We're very grateful that the rescue package has been put on the table, because frankly the world's inter-bank markets are just simply not working in the manner that they should do," said David Buik of the BGC Partners brokerage firm in London. "There's a wholesale mistrust ... amongst everybody."
"It is essential that the central banks do stand there and massage the trust back into action," Buik said. "Without them, we would be in unbelievably uncontrollable turmoil."
News of the central banks' plan cheered stock markets in Europe, with Britain's FTSE-100 up nearly 1.9 percent, Germany's DAX up nearly 1.5 percent and France's CAC 40 index up 1.6 percent.
Russia's main stock exchanges suspended trading for a second consecutive day as the government tried to stop plunging in share prices and restore confidence.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank more than 7 percent at one point on Thursday, but closed flat as Asia shares staged an afternoon comeback to partially recoup losses.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrials tumbled 449 points -- its second worst day of the year, but only the second worst day this week. The Nasdaq and the S&P also suffered drops of more than 4 percent.
The sell-off came in the wake of investment bank Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch's sale to Bank of America, and the U.S. government announcing an $85 billion plan to bail out insurance giant American International Group (AIG).
American financial investor Jim Rogers told CNN: "It's going to get worse. There are going to be more bankruptcies. There's going to be a big cleanout in the financial system." Watch Jim Rogers describe where he is investing his money »
"It's a complete collapse of confidence," Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities Ltd in Hong Kong, told The Associated Press. "The financial crisis in the U.S. is hitting everyone, everyone is running for cover. If the largest insurance company can fail, than no one is safe."
The remaining two Wall Street investment banks were hit particularly hard on Wednesday with Morgan Stanley down 29 percent and Goldman Sachs down 21 percent.
British bank Barclays said it had reached a deal Wednesday to purchase key units of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers for $1.75 billion.
The deal came just two days after Barclays walked away from talks to buy the beleaguered financial institution in its entirety.
Barclays will acquire Lehman's North American investment banking and capital markets businesses for $250 million in cash.
Barclays will also purchase Lehman's New York headquarters and two data centers in New Jersey at their current market value estimated at $1.5 billion, a company statement said.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/09/18/world.markets/?iref=mpstoryview
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/09/18/world.markets/?iref=mpstoryview#cnnSTCVideo

19/09/2008
tjhinkh: Jim short more investment banks this week. Something to think about.
He is starting to look at buying shares.

Assessing the situation on Wall Street

Assessing the situation on Wall Street

TEXT OF STORY
Stacey Vanek Smith: Lehman Brothers has filed for bankruptcy protection. It's the largest failure of an investment bank in almost 20 years. Lehman was the country's biggest underwriter of those now-toxic mortgage-backed securities. It had been trying to sell off some of its more valuable parts, but yesterday, the last of the buyers backed out. And Merrill Lynch is now the property of Bank of America. The country's largest brokerage agreed to sell itself to BofA for about $50 billion, that's roughly half of what it was worth last year. And Wall Street is already buzzing about who will bite the dust next. Jim Rogers heads up investment firm, Rogers Holdings. Jim, how serious is this? Is this part of a natural correction?

Jim Rogers: Stacey, it is part of a correction, but the correction is going to go on for some time. You know, America is going to have the worst, is having the worst financial and perhaps economic times since the second World War.

Vanek Smith: Who are the winners and losers going to be?

Rogers: Well, the losers are mainly going to be the financial industry, the financial community in America, because there have been gigantic amounts of foolish mistakes made and now they're starting to be -- you know, this is not fun -- but now a lot of them are going to go bankrupt, it's going to be cleaned out. Employment in the financial community is going to be greatly reduced over the next decade. And the winners will be people who are literally in agriculture, mining, energy, people who are ...

Vanek Smith: Commodities.

Rogers: Well, commodities. Our real assets are natural resources. All those people who got MBAs should have been going to agricultural school in the past 20 years.

Vanek Smith: The government has basically made a decision not to help bail out, they've made the decision not to bail out Lehman the way they did with Bear Stearns. Is that a mistake or is that the right move?

Rogers: No. They should not have bailed out Bear Stearns. That was the first mistake. Bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was another mistake. What's happened, Stacey, is the federal government now realizes it doesn't have many bullets left. It's used up a lot of its assets bailing out people, and now if you look at the Federal Reserve, it's terribly overextended. The Federal Budget is terribly overextended. The debt situation is overextended. And you say they decided not to bail out Lehman, that's correct. But what they did do, they also said, we will let people, banks, financial institutions now come and borrow even more money from us with even less collateral.

Vanek Smith: And just really quickly, what are we going to see in the next six months?

Rogers: You are going to see more financial failures. You're going to see less credit. You're going to see a contraction of the American and world economy. Again, many people, many of us are going to have more difficult times. Some of us are going to do extremely well, but there will not be many of those.

Vanek Smith: Well, Mr Rogers thank you so much for speaking with me. I really appreciate it.

Rogers: Any time, Stacey.

Vanek Smith: Jim Rogers heads up investment firm Rogers Holdings.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/09/15/whats_next_wall_street
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/www_publicradio/tools/media_player/popup.php?name=marketplace/morning_report/2008/09/15/marketplace_morning_report_full_20080915_64

Soros expects more bank woes

Soros expects more bank woes
Tuesday, 16 September 2008

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7620198.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7620198.stm

Invest in commodities now: Jim Rogers

Invest in commodities now: Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers, CEO, Rogers Holdings feels this is a good time to start investing in commodities and added that he would rather own commodities as they would rebound faster. He prefers agriculture commodities to non-agriculture products. He is bearish on the dollar and is not sure how long the rally would last. He said the fundamentals of the US dollar are flawed and sees an eventual downside in the dollar.
Q: We have seen commodities decline in the last couple of months, do you think it’s a moment to buy or there is more decline left in the market?
A: It is better to buy when things are going down rather than when they are going up but I have no idea whether this is the best time. Normally September and October in investment markets are weak months so you are at the right time to start investing in commodities if you have it.
Q: You have come here for a launch of a commodity fund, do you think it’s the right time to launch a commodity fund when prices are down?
A: You got to buy when things are going down, you don’t want to buy when things are going up. If they had launched this fund in July it would have been a disaster. They may get money in October but it certainly looks to me that they are very lucky.
Q: What would you buy? Would you buy commodities or funds or into mining companies, what seems best to you?
A: It depends on your ability. If you know a lot about commodities, you can invest in commodities and that’s difficult in India. If you are a good stock picker then you are much better investing in commodity companies or commodity funds. If you know a good stock picker who runs a fund buy that fund, you will make more money.
Q: What are you betting on the non-agro or the agricultural commodities?
A: I bought agricultural commodities recently. They have gone down and everything has been going down for the last couple of months. I would rather buy agriculture than most things these days.
Q: You have never liked US dollar but we have seen a resurge come in to that? How long do you think this would stay?
A: We are having a rally in the dollar because everybody is bearish on it including me and that always leads to a rally. I don’t know how long it’s going to last but I plan to sell this rally sometime in the next month or a year. I don’t know how long this is going to go but I know that US dollar is a terribly flawed currency and it has got terrible problems down the road.
Q: Gold prices have come down from USD 1,034/oz to USD 730/oz, do you think there is more downside left here or would you buy at these levels?
A: I am going to try to buy little bit of gold today here in India, not a major position. If it continues to go down, I hope I am smart enough to buy more. Gold could go to USD 500/oz and could have a big correction. All markets do that, they have big corrections and they scare everybody but a 50% correction is normal. If it goes down 50%, I hope I am smart enough to buy a lot more.
Q: What would you buy as of now?
A: I recently bought airline stocks, agriculture, Renminbi, Swiss Francs, and Japanese Yen.
Q; Do you still believe we are into a bull commodity market and we might see more highs going on from here?
A: Over the next decade, we are going to see more highs. The world is in a recession now; you may see lower prices for some commodities for a while just as you may see a lot lower prices for a lot of stocks. Of the two classes, I would rather own commodities than stocks because when the economies revive, commodities are going to revive first and go up the most.
Q: What are you picking up in the Q1 of 2008, what do you think would rebound faster?
A: I am the world’s worst market timer; I am a horrible short-term trader. I have no idea. A lot of people on CNBC can tell you everyday what exactly you are supposed to be buying and when it’s going to go up and how much but I am not one of those people.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/fii-view/investcommodities-now-jim-rogers-/14/45/356091
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/07/10/newsvideo/356091

Agriculture is the in thing in biz, says Jim Rogers

Agriculture is the in thing in biz, says Jim Rogers

Mumbai, Sept. 13
Agriculture is the business to be in, and if one wants to become rich, one should become a farmer, remarked Mr Jim Rogers, a well known global investor known for his interest in commodities. Young Indians should take up farming, but they are reluctant to, said Mr Rogers who even exhorted presspersons to leave their jobs and join agriculture!
The best way to invest in India is in commodities, because if India is going to grow, then one should invest in things which India has to have for this growth, said Mr Rogers, who heads Rogers Holdings in Singapore (He was a co-founder of Quantum Fund, with Mr George Soros).
Mr Rogers said that he isn’t investing in India or in any other emerging markets at present. But he said the country’s water, agriculture and tourism sectors were attractive.
While stock markets are very expensive in most countries and are going to be like this for several years, this is a good time to start investing in commodities, he said. “They rebound faster and are the second largest asset class in the world,” he added.
Among the commodities, he is most bullish on agro products whose inventories globally are the lowest among the commodities. As far as gold is concerned, it is correcting, but most gold mines in the world are depleting. Historically, gold has been used to protect oneself in times of trouble, he said. “I own gold, and am going to buy a little bit of gold today here in India, not much, but souvenirs. And if gold continues to go down, I hope I am smart enough to buy more.” Governments and politicians think that putting controls on things is a good measure, but it is a terrible risk, said Mr Rogers. Commodity prices will go up whether they impose control or not as there is a serious supply side problem.
Commodity outlook
He expects prices of commodities such as cotton, sugar, coffee to rise further. “Currently we are not really seeing them as investment options, but these might surprise us later.” He said he was also bullish on Zinc and Silver.
Many politicians are advocating bio-fuels, so even if there might be an argument by scientists against bio-fuels in some cases, we know that bio-fuels are coming. “There will be much more demand for bio-fuels, so I am optimistic about it,” he said.
According to Mr Rogers, the dollar situation is likely to get worse. “It is a terribly flawed currency,” he said.
While he does expect that most countries will soon move away from the American dollar, he blames the Government and the US Fed for the current economic condition of the country. “In America we had a horrible credit bubble, and now we are paying a price for that. People had got houses, cars, student loans without paying anything. So the bubble burst.”
“I went short on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as I felt that they did not know what they were doing,” he said to reporters. “It was a horrendous mistake to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” he said.
Recent investments
His most recent investments are the Japanese yen, airline stocks, Swiss Francs, Agriculture and Chinese renminbi, he said.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/09/14/stories/2008091450900500.htm