Jim Rogers Sees Higher Returns in Agriculture Than Gold: Video
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Nina de Roy in London about the outlook for global markets and his investment strategy for agriculture, gold, currencies and U.S. treasuries. U.S. stocks slid, dragging the Standard & Poor's 500 Index down 45 percent from its peak, as slumping profits at carmakers and technology companies indicated the credit crisis has infected the broader economy.
00:00 Favors commodities, Swiss francs, yen, China
01:07 Closing markets would be "insanity," risk
02:12 Sees "bull run" resuming in commodities
02:55 Bought gold yesterday, Fed policy, Bernanke
05:56 Sees more bank failures, government measures
07:33 Sees more money in agriculture than gold
08:51 U.S. taking stakes in regional banks "absurd"
10:58 Federal Reserve's liquidity assistance scheme
11:43 Roubini's comments, unsure of market bottom
Running time 12:44
Last Updated: October 24, 2008 12:45 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afQ8CdgXQk8M
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vZxWkZj_78EQ.asf
tjhinkh
27/10/2008:
Jim bought more gold (Gold coins in Zurich) and agricultural commodities.
He is also thinking of buying indutrial metals and crude oil.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Jim Rogers Buys Agriculture, Considering Metals, Oil (Update1)
Jim Rogers Buys Agriculture, Considering Metals, Oil (Update1)
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers bought gold coins in Frankfurt last week, added more agriculture commodities today and is considering industrial metals and crude oil.
``Agriculture is cheap,'' Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told reporters at an ETF Securities Ltd. meeting in London today. ``The fundamentals for most commodities are not impaired.''
The 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index have dropped 21 percent this year as falling equities, reduced lending and slumps in manufacturing and construction trimmed demand. Copper is down 47 percent from a record in July.
``We're in this period of forced liquidation,'' Rogers said. ``This bull market in commodities is here because of supply and demand.''
``Excessive'' amounts of cash added to the banking system have ``always led to rising prices,'' Rogers said. The Federal Reserve rescued American International Group Inc. with an $85 billion loan last month, the U.K. last week announced plans to spend 37 billion pounds ($63.4 billion) on Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, HBOS Plc and Lloyds TSB Group Plc and ING Groep today got a 10 billion-euro ($13.3 billion) lifeline from the Netherlands.
Commodities had gained for six years before 2008 as underinvestment in refineries, mines and land sent prices for oil, gold and wheat to records earlier this year. Oil has dropped 50 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel in July as tightening credit choked demand.
``Farmers cannot get sufficient loans to plant their crops at the moment even though they've been farmers for decades,'' Rogers said. ``Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine. People cannot get loans for their inventory which is part of the forced liquidation. So all of this also means even less supply.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 20, 2008 11:46 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0hRi80JG9tM
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vZsjEDIR4.VU.asf
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers bought gold coins in Frankfurt last week, added more agriculture commodities today and is considering industrial metals and crude oil.
``Agriculture is cheap,'' Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told reporters at an ETF Securities Ltd. meeting in London today. ``The fundamentals for most commodities are not impaired.''
The 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index have dropped 21 percent this year as falling equities, reduced lending and slumps in manufacturing and construction trimmed demand. Copper is down 47 percent from a record in July.
``We're in this period of forced liquidation,'' Rogers said. ``This bull market in commodities is here because of supply and demand.''
``Excessive'' amounts of cash added to the banking system have ``always led to rising prices,'' Rogers said. The Federal Reserve rescued American International Group Inc. with an $85 billion loan last month, the U.K. last week announced plans to spend 37 billion pounds ($63.4 billion) on Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, HBOS Plc and Lloyds TSB Group Plc and ING Groep today got a 10 billion-euro ($13.3 billion) lifeline from the Netherlands.
Commodities had gained for six years before 2008 as underinvestment in refineries, mines and land sent prices for oil, gold and wheat to records earlier this year. Oil has dropped 50 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel in July as tightening credit choked demand.
``Farmers cannot get sufficient loans to plant their crops at the moment even though they've been farmers for decades,'' Rogers said. ``Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine. People cannot get loans for their inventory which is part of the forced liquidation. So all of this also means even less supply.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 20, 2008 11:46 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0hRi80JG9tM
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vZsjEDIR4.VU.asf
Thursday, October 23, 2008
In Times of 'Zombie Banks,' Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers
In Times of 'Zombie Banks,' Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers
CNBC.com 22 Oct 2008 05:51 AM ET
The fundamentals for commodities were not affected by government policies that are propagating inflation, Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Wednesday.
"I bought more agriculture this week," Rogers told "Squawk Box Europe." "What's happening is that there will be less supply of everything if we ever come out of (the credit crunch). Nobody can get a loan for a zinc mine or, long term, increase crop production."
If history is any guide, things to buy are things that are doing fine right now like water treatment companies in Asia or agriculture, Rogers added.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for keeping alive "zombie banks" that should be allowed to fail, he said.
The Japanese government refused to let financial institutions fail in the 1990s, Rogers said.
"It's 18 years later and their stock market is 75 or 80 percent below what it was 18 years ago," he added.
Rogers also said that interest-rate cuts are coming.
"I know we are going to get aggressive rate cuts everywhere, that's why I'm long short-term government bonds in the U.S., but shorting long-term government bonds because it's not going to help, it's going to add to inflation," he said.
http://www.cnbc.com//id/27317048
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899313677
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899318909
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899308138
CNBC.com 22 Oct 2008 05:51 AM ET
The fundamentals for commodities were not affected by government policies that are propagating inflation, Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Wednesday.
"I bought more agriculture this week," Rogers told "Squawk Box Europe." "What's happening is that there will be less supply of everything if we ever come out of (the credit crunch). Nobody can get a loan for a zinc mine or, long term, increase crop production."
If history is any guide, things to buy are things that are doing fine right now like water treatment companies in Asia or agriculture, Rogers added.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for keeping alive "zombie banks" that should be allowed to fail, he said.
The Japanese government refused to let financial institutions fail in the 1990s, Rogers said.
"It's 18 years later and their stock market is 75 or 80 percent below what it was 18 years ago," he added.
Rogers also said that interest-rate cuts are coming.
"I know we are going to get aggressive rate cuts everywhere, that's why I'm long short-term government bonds in the U.S., but shorting long-term government bonds because it's not going to help, it's going to add to inflation," he said.
http://www.cnbc.com//id/27317048
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899313677
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899318909
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899308138
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
My Interview with George Soros: End of Financial Crisis Could Be in Sight
My Interview with George Soros: End of Financial Crisis Could Be in Sight
George Soros, the financier and philanthropist, is author most recently of The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means. He spoke with me in Washington, D.C., where the IMF and World Bank are meeting, on Sunday.
Nathan Gardels: Let's talk first about the nature of the crisis. Thanks to low interest rates, global liquidity and deregulation, we have had a 25-year, self-reinforcing credit expansion bubble, leading to "irrational exuberance," as it was once said, in financial markets. Now we have the self-reinforcing crash of the stock and credit markets --"irrational despair" -- not justified by the economic fundamentals in the real economy.
How does this pattern fit your theory of reflexivity and your new paradigm for understanding finance?
George Soros: The key to understanding this crisis -- the worst since the 1930s -- is to see that it was generated within the financial system itself. What we are witnessing is not the result of some exogenous shock that knocked things off balance, as the prevailing paradigm, which believes markets are self-correcting, would suggest. The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.
The paradigm I'm proposing differs from the conventional wisdom in two respects. First, financial markets don't reflect the actual economic fundamentals. Expectations by traders and investors are always distorting them. Second, these distortions in the financial markets can affect the fundamentals -- as we see in both bubbles and crashes. Euphoria can lift housing and dot.com prices; panic can send sound banks tumbling.
That two-way connection -- that you affect what you reflect -- is what I call "reflexivity." That is how financial markets really work. Their instability is now spreading to the real economy, not the other way around. In short, the boom-bust sequences, the bubbles, are endemic to the financial system.
The current situation is not just about the housing bubble. The housing bubble was merely the trigger that detonated a much larger bubble. That super-bubble, created by the ever-increasing use of credit and debt leverage, combined with the conviction that markets are self-correcting, took more than 25 years to grow. Now it is exploding.
Gardels: What ought to be the "circuit breaker" that short-circuits the distortions that inevitably destabilize financial markets?
Soros: If bubbles are endemic in the system, then government regulators have to intervene to prevent bubbles from getting too big. Governments have to recognize that markets are not self-correcting. It is not enough to pick up the pieces after the crisis.
Gardels: Does the presence of the 24-hour global financial news cycle amplify and exaggerate distortions in the financial markets?
Soros: Without question, they accelerate the process. At the same time, I wouldn't overstate it. At the end of the 19th century, you didn't have 24-hour cable, but nevertheless you had the same kind of bubbles. Throughout the 19th century, when there was a laissez-faire mentality and insufficient regulation, you had one crisis after another. Each crisis brought about some reform. That is how central banking developed.
Gardels: How come all the efforts of the U.S. government so far -- the $700 billion rescue package, low Federal interest rates, backstopping deposits and commercial paper -- have not stemmed the crisis?
Soros: The U.S. authorities bought into market fundamentalist ideology. They thought that the markets would ultimately correct themselves. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson epitomized this. He thought that six months after the Bear Stearns crisis the market would have adjusted and, "Well, if Lehman (Brothers) goes bust, the system can take it." Instead, everything fell apart. Since they did not understand the nature of the problem -- that the market would not correct itself -- they did not see the need for government intervention. They did not prepare a Plan B. As the shock of the Lehman failure set in, he had to change his mind and rescue AIG. The next day there was a run on the money markets and commercial paper markets, so he turned around again and said we need a $700 billion bailout. But he wanted to put the money in the wrong place -- taking the toxic securities out of the hands of the banks.
They have finally now come around -- with the government buying equity in banks -- because they see the financial system is on the verge of collapse.
Gardels: Now that the U.S. authorities are at last on the right track, what are the key components of resolving the crisis?
Soros: The outlines are clear.
There are five major elements.
-- First, the government needs to recapitalize the banking system by buying equity stakes in banks.
-- Second, interbank lending needs to be restarted with guarantees and bringing LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) in line with Fed funds. This is in the works. It is going to happen.
-- Third, we must reform the mortgage system in the U.S., minimizing foreclosures and renegotiating loans so that mortgages are not worth more than houses. Stemming foreclosures will cushion the fall of housing prices.
-- Fourth, Europe has to fix a weakness of the Euro by creating a safety net for its banks. While initially resisting this, they have now found religion and done it at their meeting in Paris on Sunday.
-- Fifth, the IMF must deal with the vulnerability of countries at the periphery of the global financial system by providing a financial safety net. This is also in the works. The Japanese have already offered $200 billion for this purpose.These five steps will start the healing process. If we implement these measures effectively, we will have passed through the worst of the financial crisis.
But then, I'm afraid, there is the fallout in the real economy, which is now gathering momentum. At this point, repairing the financial system will not stop a severe worldwide recession. Since, under this circumstance the U.S. consumer can no longer serve as the motor of the world economy, the U.S. government must stimulate demand. Because we face the menacing challenges of global warming and energy dependence, the next administration should direct any stimulus plan toward energy savings, developing alternative energy sources and building green infrastructure. This stimulus can be the new motor for the world economy.
Gardels: At the end of the day, won't we be looking at a vastly different global financial landscape? The U.S. will decline as the top power. It will have, along with parts of Europe, socialized banks and loads of debt. Communist China will be the new financial power globally, flush with capital and a major investor in the West.
Soros: U.S. influence will wane. It has already declined. For the past 25 years, we have been running a constant current account deficit. The Chinese and the oil-producing countries have been running a surplus. We have consumed more than we produced. While we have run up debt, they have acquired wealth with their savings. Increasingly, the Chinese will own a lot more of the world because they will be converting their dollar reserves and U.S. government bonds into real assets.
That changes the power relations. The powershift toward Asia is a consequence of the sins of the last 25 years on the part of the United States.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/soros-end-of-financial-cr_b_134008.html
George Soros, the financier and philanthropist, is author most recently of The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means. He spoke with me in Washington, D.C., where the IMF and World Bank are meeting, on Sunday.
Nathan Gardels: Let's talk first about the nature of the crisis. Thanks to low interest rates, global liquidity and deregulation, we have had a 25-year, self-reinforcing credit expansion bubble, leading to "irrational exuberance," as it was once said, in financial markets. Now we have the self-reinforcing crash of the stock and credit markets --"irrational despair" -- not justified by the economic fundamentals in the real economy.
How does this pattern fit your theory of reflexivity and your new paradigm for understanding finance?
George Soros: The key to understanding this crisis -- the worst since the 1930s -- is to see that it was generated within the financial system itself. What we are witnessing is not the result of some exogenous shock that knocked things off balance, as the prevailing paradigm, which believes markets are self-correcting, would suggest. The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.
The paradigm I'm proposing differs from the conventional wisdom in two respects. First, financial markets don't reflect the actual economic fundamentals. Expectations by traders and investors are always distorting them. Second, these distortions in the financial markets can affect the fundamentals -- as we see in both bubbles and crashes. Euphoria can lift housing and dot.com prices; panic can send sound banks tumbling.
That two-way connection -- that you affect what you reflect -- is what I call "reflexivity." That is how financial markets really work. Their instability is now spreading to the real economy, not the other way around. In short, the boom-bust sequences, the bubbles, are endemic to the financial system.
The current situation is not just about the housing bubble. The housing bubble was merely the trigger that detonated a much larger bubble. That super-bubble, created by the ever-increasing use of credit and debt leverage, combined with the conviction that markets are self-correcting, took more than 25 years to grow. Now it is exploding.
Gardels: What ought to be the "circuit breaker" that short-circuits the distortions that inevitably destabilize financial markets?
Soros: If bubbles are endemic in the system, then government regulators have to intervene to prevent bubbles from getting too big. Governments have to recognize that markets are not self-correcting. It is not enough to pick up the pieces after the crisis.
Gardels: Does the presence of the 24-hour global financial news cycle amplify and exaggerate distortions in the financial markets?
Soros: Without question, they accelerate the process. At the same time, I wouldn't overstate it. At the end of the 19th century, you didn't have 24-hour cable, but nevertheless you had the same kind of bubbles. Throughout the 19th century, when there was a laissez-faire mentality and insufficient regulation, you had one crisis after another. Each crisis brought about some reform. That is how central banking developed.
Gardels: How come all the efforts of the U.S. government so far -- the $700 billion rescue package, low Federal interest rates, backstopping deposits and commercial paper -- have not stemmed the crisis?
Soros: The U.S. authorities bought into market fundamentalist ideology. They thought that the markets would ultimately correct themselves. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson epitomized this. He thought that six months after the Bear Stearns crisis the market would have adjusted and, "Well, if Lehman (Brothers) goes bust, the system can take it." Instead, everything fell apart. Since they did not understand the nature of the problem -- that the market would not correct itself -- they did not see the need for government intervention. They did not prepare a Plan B. As the shock of the Lehman failure set in, he had to change his mind and rescue AIG. The next day there was a run on the money markets and commercial paper markets, so he turned around again and said we need a $700 billion bailout. But he wanted to put the money in the wrong place -- taking the toxic securities out of the hands of the banks.
They have finally now come around -- with the government buying equity in banks -- because they see the financial system is on the verge of collapse.
Gardels: Now that the U.S. authorities are at last on the right track, what are the key components of resolving the crisis?
Soros: The outlines are clear.
There are five major elements.
-- First, the government needs to recapitalize the banking system by buying equity stakes in banks.
-- Second, interbank lending needs to be restarted with guarantees and bringing LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) in line with Fed funds. This is in the works. It is going to happen.
-- Third, we must reform the mortgage system in the U.S., minimizing foreclosures and renegotiating loans so that mortgages are not worth more than houses. Stemming foreclosures will cushion the fall of housing prices.
-- Fourth, Europe has to fix a weakness of the Euro by creating a safety net for its banks. While initially resisting this, they have now found religion and done it at their meeting in Paris on Sunday.
-- Fifth, the IMF must deal with the vulnerability of countries at the periphery of the global financial system by providing a financial safety net. This is also in the works. The Japanese have already offered $200 billion for this purpose.These five steps will start the healing process. If we implement these measures effectively, we will have passed through the worst of the financial crisis.
But then, I'm afraid, there is the fallout in the real economy, which is now gathering momentum. At this point, repairing the financial system will not stop a severe worldwide recession. Since, under this circumstance the U.S. consumer can no longer serve as the motor of the world economy, the U.S. government must stimulate demand. Because we face the menacing challenges of global warming and energy dependence, the next administration should direct any stimulus plan toward energy savings, developing alternative energy sources and building green infrastructure. This stimulus can be the new motor for the world economy.
Gardels: At the end of the day, won't we be looking at a vastly different global financial landscape? The U.S. will decline as the top power. It will have, along with parts of Europe, socialized banks and loads of debt. Communist China will be the new financial power globally, flush with capital and a major investor in the West.
Soros: U.S. influence will wane. It has already declined. For the past 25 years, we have been running a constant current account deficit. The Chinese and the oil-producing countries have been running a surplus. We have consumed more than we produced. While we have run up debt, they have acquired wealth with their savings. Increasingly, the Chinese will own a lot more of the world because they will be converting their dollar reserves and U.S. government bonds into real assets.
That changes the power relations. The powershift toward Asia is a consequence of the sins of the last 25 years on the part of the United States.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/soros-end-of-financial-cr_b_134008.html
How to capitalise the banks and save finance
How to capitalise the banks and save finance
By George Soros
Published: October 12 2008 19:14 Last updated: October 12 2008 19:14
Now that Hank Paulson has recognised that the troubled asset relief programme is best used to recapitalise the banking system, it is important to spell out exactly how it should be done. Since it was not part of the Treasury secretary’s original approach, there is a real danger that the scheme will not be properly structured and will not achieve its objective. With financial markets on the brink of meltdown it is vital to make the prospects of a successful recapitalisation clearly visible.
This is how Tarp ought to work. The Treasury secretary should begin by asking the banking supervisors to produce an estimate for each bank, how much additional capital they would need to meet the statutory requirement of 8 per cent. The supervisors are familiar with the banks and are aggressively examining and gathering information. They would be able to come up with an estimate in short order provided they are given clear instructions on what assumptions to use. The estimates would be reasonably reliable for the smaller, simpler institutions, but the likes of Citibank and Goldman Sachs would require some guesswork.
Managements of solvent banks would then have the option of raising additional capital themselves or turning to Tarp, which would state the terms on which it is willing to underwrite a new issue of convertible preferred shares. (Convertibles are better than warrants because the banks should not need additional capital infusions later.) The preferred shares would carry a low coupon, say 5 per cent, so as not to impair banks’ profitability. The new issues would dilute existing shareholders but they would be given preferential rights to subscribe on the same terms as Tarp and if they were willing and able to put up additional capital they would not be diluted. The rights would be transferable and if the terms were set right, other investors would take them up.
Using this approach, $700bn should be more than sufficient to recapitalise the entire banking system and funds would be available to buy and hold to maturity mortgage related securities. Since insolvent banks would not be eligible for recapitalisation, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation would certainly require topping up.
Concurrent to the recapitalisation scheme the authorities would lower minimum capital requirements so that banks would compete for new business. The Fed would also guarantee interbank borrowing by banks eligible for recapitalisation. This would reactivate the interbank market and return the spread of Libor over Fed funds to normal and reduce the abnormally high interest rates on business and mortgage loans linked to Libor.
The success of the bank recapitalisation programme could be undermined by a downward overshoot in housing prices. A separate set of measures is needed to keep foreclosures to a minimum and to fundamentally restructure the deeply flawed US system of mortgage finance. Taken together the two sets of measures would not prevent a recession – too much damage has been done to the financial system and the general public has been traumatised by the events of the past few days – but they would reduce its duration and severity. Once the economy returns to normal, the minimum capital requirements of banks would be raised again.
The international financial system also needs repairing but there are grounds for optimism. Europe has realised that it needs to complement the euro with a government safety net for interbank credit. And the International Monetary Fund is finding a new mission in protecting countries at the periphery from the storm at the centre.
The recapitalisation scheme outlined here would suffer from none of the difficulties of reverse auctions for hard-to-price securities. It would help restart the economy and likely produce returns for taxpayers comparable to my fund’s. But time is of the essence. The authorities have lost control of the situation because they were constantly lagging behind events. By the time they acted, measures that could have stabilised markets were ineffective. Only by promptly announcing a comprehensive set of measures and executing them vigorously can the situation be brought under control.
Actions speak louder than words. Specifically, Morgan Stanley urgently needs rescue. The Treasury should offer to match Mitsubishi’s investment with preferred shares whose conversion price is higher than Mitsubishi’s purchase price. This will save the Mitsubishi deal and buy time for successfully implementing the recapitalisation and mortgage reform programmes.
The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55b32b9e-9888-11dd-ace3-000077b07658.html?dbk&nclick_check=1
Monday, October 13, 2008
Jim Rogers Prefers G-7 Officials `Do Nothing' at Meeting: Video
Jim Rogers Prefers G-7 Officials `Do Nothing' at Meeting: Video
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu from Singapore about the stock market sell-off, his investment strategy and opposition to government efforts to rescue companies with troubled assets. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Short on small-caps, tech stocks, Treasuries
01:35 "I'm the world's worst short-term trader."
02:05 Buying strategy; opposition to bank rescue
04:32 Market "liquidation" vs. focus on fundaments
05:34 Company dividends; "let them go bankrupt."
07:38 Focus on agricultural, water-related stocks
08:06 Strategy for sellout; Asian markets outlook
09:37 Berlusconi's "insane" closing market proposal
Running time 11:07
Last Updated: October 10, 2008 11:31 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAj_q7.fvm5s
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vE9eni21apug.asf
13/10/2008
Note the ticker as the panic grew and bounced back.
Complete liquidation of everything.
Jim is shorting more long term treasuries on this day.
The last bubble left is the long term government bond in America.
Jim not going to buy in America, except agriculture products.
Still short investment bank ETF. Bank of America is coming out of this crisis impaired as they
took over Merril Lynch. GE will not cut dividend.
If market is closed, the liqidity is gone and nobody can sell nobody has money.
Jim not buying into oil right now. But may buy Gold as it goes higher
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu from Singapore about the stock market sell-off, his investment strategy and opposition to government efforts to rescue companies with troubled assets. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Short on small-caps, tech stocks, Treasuries
01:35 "I'm the world's worst short-term trader."
02:05 Buying strategy; opposition to bank rescue
04:32 Market "liquidation" vs. focus on fundaments
05:34 Company dividends; "let them go bankrupt."
07:38 Focus on agricultural, water-related stocks
08:06 Strategy for sellout; Asian markets outlook
09:37 Berlusconi's "insane" closing market proposal
Running time 11:07
Last Updated: October 10, 2008 11:31 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAj_q7.fvm5s
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vE9eni21apug.asf
13/10/2008
Note the ticker as the panic grew and bounced back.
Complete liquidation of everything.
Jim is shorting more long term treasuries on this day.
The last bubble left is the long term government bond in America.
Jim not going to buy in America, except agriculture products.
Still short investment bank ETF. Bank of America is coming out of this crisis impaired as they
took over Merril Lynch. GE will not cut dividend.
If market is closed, the liqidity is gone and nobody can sell nobody has money.
Jim not buying into oil right now. But may buy Gold as it goes higher
Jim Rogers Says Cash Holdings `Gigantic,' to Sell Dollar: Video
Jim Rogers Says Cash Holdings `Gigantic,' to Sell Dollar: Video
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton from Singapore about the rout in the global financial markets, the response of governments to the crisis and his investment strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Markets: "It's very clearly a crash."
01:46 Will focus on agriculture in rebound; gold
03:33 "Nobody has any confidence in these clowns."
05:01 Let banks fail, clear out "horrible excesses"
08:28 Favors China, Taiwan, Yen, Swiss francs
09:37 "I have gigantic amounts of cash."
11:15 Buying yen, franc; to sell dollar on rally
Running time 11:35
Last Updated: October 10, 2008 05:24 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA0DZ7EsIFK8
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v12UMJ.V0PuY.asf
13/10/2008
Selling climax on Oct 10 2008 but Jim not buying to US except for agriculture stocks.
Covered shorts and buy agriculture last week.
Lots of people email Jim telling him that this is the bottom. But it will not be the bottom
until everybody telling him that there will never be the bottom.
During this panick, when everybody just sell everything away, it is better to buy things that
the fundemantal is unimpaired. And now the only thing that is unimpaired is commodities.
Jim will buy the commodities index but facus more on agriculture as demand will slow for base
metals and energy.
The reason the stocks are falling when the Treasury pump money into the system it's
because nobody believe that what the Treasury is doing is good. It is inflationary and
create problems in the long run.
Jim still has USD and plan to sell as the gigantic USD short position are being liquidated.
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton from Singapore about the rout in the global financial markets, the response of governments to the crisis and his investment strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Markets: "It's very clearly a crash."
01:46 Will focus on agriculture in rebound; gold
03:33 "Nobody has any confidence in these clowns."
05:01 Let banks fail, clear out "horrible excesses"
08:28 Favors China, Taiwan, Yen, Swiss francs
09:37 "I have gigantic amounts of cash."
11:15 Buying yen, franc; to sell dollar on rally
Running time 11:35
Last Updated: October 10, 2008 05:24 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA0DZ7EsIFK8
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v12UMJ.V0PuY.asf
13/10/2008
Selling climax on Oct 10 2008 but Jim not buying to US except for agriculture stocks.
Covered shorts and buy agriculture last week.
Lots of people email Jim telling him that this is the bottom. But it will not be the bottom
until everybody telling him that there will never be the bottom.
During this panick, when everybody just sell everything away, it is better to buy things that
the fundemantal is unimpaired. And now the only thing that is unimpaired is commodities.
Jim will buy the commodities index but facus more on agriculture as demand will slow for base
metals and energy.
The reason the stocks are falling when the Treasury pump money into the system it's
because nobody believe that what the Treasury is doing is good. It is inflationary and
create problems in the long run.
Jim still has USD and plan to sell as the gigantic USD short position are being liquidated.
Philip Falcone shorts Santander, owner of Abbey
Philip Falcone shorts Santander, owner of Abbey
Danny Fortson
From The Sunday TimesOctober 12, 2008
PHILIP FALCONE, the American hedge-fund manager who made a killing by betting against the shares of HBOS, now has the UK’s second-largest retail bank in his sights.
In the past week his hedge fund, Harbinger Capital, has built up a €208m (£165m) short position in Santander, the eurozone’s largest bank and owner of Abbey National, Alliance & Leicester (A&L) and Bradford & Bingley (B&B) in the UK.
While the shorting of financial shares is still temporarily banned in Britain, this is not the case in Spain. Falcone has made similar bets against BBVA and Banco Popular, Spain’s next two largest banks. He has built up short positions of €225m and €139.8m in those stocks respectively. Being targeted by one of the wiliest investors in the sector will worry investors, especially because shares in the companies have already dropped so much in value. Santander shares have shed a third of their value over the past year, while BBVA and Banco Popular have lost nearly half their value.
Falcone has done well by making the right calls before. According to the hedge-fund trade magazine Alpha, he pocketed $1.7 billion last year, making him one of the sector’s top-five earners.
Santander and its chairman, Emilio Botin, have been lionised for stepping in to save both A&L and B&B. Spanish banks have skated relatively unscathed through the credit crunch, but questions are being asked over whether that will last.
They are heavily exposed to Spain’s plummeting housing and construction markets. Unemployment in the country recently hit 11%. According to filings with Spain’s market regulator, Harbinger increased its bets against the banks on Thursday and again on Friday, when stocks around the world ended the worst trading week since the stock-market crash of 1987.
Falcone previously built a near-4% short position on HBOS and was vilified along with other short sellers for his perceived role in the shares’ nosedive that led to the government-brokered rescue deal with Lloyds TSB. Regulators in America and Europe, including Britain’s Financial Services Authority, have since imposed a temporary ban on short-selling on some financial stocks.
Short sellers borrow shares in a stock on the assumption that by the time they have to return them they will have fallen in value, and then pocket the difference.
Next week Falcone will be among five prominent hedge-fund managers who will testify before the US Congress about his business and any possible deleterious effects that it may have on financial stability.
Henry Waxman, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform committee, said in a letter to Falcone: “I ask that you be prepared to testify about whether hedge funds, including yours, pose systemic risks to the financial markets.”
Geroge Soros, John Paulson of Paulson & Co, Kenneth Griffin at Citadel Investment Group, and James Simons of Renaissance Technologies will also testify.
In total, short sellers hold 2% of Santander stock, 1% of BBVA and 8% of Banco Popular. Lansdowne Partners, the London hedge fund that shorted Northern Rock in the months before the lender was nationalised last year, has taken a 0.42% short position in Banco Popular.
Fidelity International has also placed a bet against the company.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4926277.ece
13/10/2008
Philip Falcone shorted HBOS and recently Santander, Eurozone biggest bank.
Danny Fortson
From The Sunday TimesOctober 12, 2008
PHILIP FALCONE, the American hedge-fund manager who made a killing by betting against the shares of HBOS, now has the UK’s second-largest retail bank in his sights.
In the past week his hedge fund, Harbinger Capital, has built up a €208m (£165m) short position in Santander, the eurozone’s largest bank and owner of Abbey National, Alliance & Leicester (A&L) and Bradford & Bingley (B&B) in the UK.
While the shorting of financial shares is still temporarily banned in Britain, this is not the case in Spain. Falcone has made similar bets against BBVA and Banco Popular, Spain’s next two largest banks. He has built up short positions of €225m and €139.8m in those stocks respectively. Being targeted by one of the wiliest investors in the sector will worry investors, especially because shares in the companies have already dropped so much in value. Santander shares have shed a third of their value over the past year, while BBVA and Banco Popular have lost nearly half their value.
Falcone has done well by making the right calls before. According to the hedge-fund trade magazine Alpha, he pocketed $1.7 billion last year, making him one of the sector’s top-five earners.
Santander and its chairman, Emilio Botin, have been lionised for stepping in to save both A&L and B&B. Spanish banks have skated relatively unscathed through the credit crunch, but questions are being asked over whether that will last.
They are heavily exposed to Spain’s plummeting housing and construction markets. Unemployment in the country recently hit 11%. According to filings with Spain’s market regulator, Harbinger increased its bets against the banks on Thursday and again on Friday, when stocks around the world ended the worst trading week since the stock-market crash of 1987.
Falcone previously built a near-4% short position on HBOS and was vilified along with other short sellers for his perceived role in the shares’ nosedive that led to the government-brokered rescue deal with Lloyds TSB. Regulators in America and Europe, including Britain’s Financial Services Authority, have since imposed a temporary ban on short-selling on some financial stocks.
Short sellers borrow shares in a stock on the assumption that by the time they have to return them they will have fallen in value, and then pocket the difference.
Next week Falcone will be among five prominent hedge-fund managers who will testify before the US Congress about his business and any possible deleterious effects that it may have on financial stability.
Henry Waxman, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform committee, said in a letter to Falcone: “I ask that you be prepared to testify about whether hedge funds, including yours, pose systemic risks to the financial markets.”
Geroge Soros, John Paulson of Paulson & Co, Kenneth Griffin at Citadel Investment Group, and James Simons of Renaissance Technologies will also testify.
In total, short sellers hold 2% of Santander stock, 1% of BBVA and 8% of Banco Popular. Lansdowne Partners, the London hedge fund that shorted Northern Rock in the months before the lender was nationalised last year, has taken a 0.42% short position in Banco Popular.
Fidelity International has also placed a bet against the company.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4926277.ece
13/10/2008
Philip Falcone shorted HBOS and recently Santander, Eurozone biggest bank.
We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers
We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers
By CNBC.com 10 Oct 2008 07:26 AM
Markets do not trust the governments' plans to keep struggling banks alive and investors will only calm down when the companies with bad assets are allowed to go bankrupt, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Friday.
"The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.
"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years."
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Rogers warned.
"We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.
And the plans are unlikely to fend off a severe economic downturn, as the crisis starts affecting all walks of life.
"We had the worst excesses we had in credit markets in world history. We're going to have to take some pain," Rogers said.
"Many people bought 4-5 houses with no money down and no job… you think we'll just say well, that's too bad, we'll start over and nobody loses their job? Be realistic."
People should not look to the upcoming G7 meeting with the hope that the leaders of the strongest economies will find a solution.
"What they (G7 leaders) need to do is go down the bar and leave the rest of us alone," Rogers said.
Economies who did not take part in the subprime bonanza are likely to suffer along with Wall Street and the developed economies as the crisis unfolds, he warned.
"What about all the people in countries that minded their manners, saved their money, didn't get overextended and now all of a sudden they're being asked to bail out a bunch of guys on Wall Street who were incompetent at best and some of them crooks?"
"I thought it outrageous that anybody has to step in a bail out a bunch of 29 year olds driving Maseratis," he said.
There are not many safe havens in the volatile markets, he said.
"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products… there's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight."
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired," Rogers added.
© 2008 CNBC.com
http://www.cnbc.com//id/27097823
By CNBC.com 10 Oct 2008 07:26 AM
Markets do not trust the governments' plans to keep struggling banks alive and investors will only calm down when the companies with bad assets are allowed to go bankrupt, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Friday.
"The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.
"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years."
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Rogers warned.
"We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.
And the plans are unlikely to fend off a severe economic downturn, as the crisis starts affecting all walks of life.
"We had the worst excesses we had in credit markets in world history. We're going to have to take some pain," Rogers said.
"Many people bought 4-5 houses with no money down and no job… you think we'll just say well, that's too bad, we'll start over and nobody loses their job? Be realistic."
People should not look to the upcoming G7 meeting with the hope that the leaders of the strongest economies will find a solution.
"What they (G7 leaders) need to do is go down the bar and leave the rest of us alone," Rogers said.
Economies who did not take part in the subprime bonanza are likely to suffer along with Wall Street and the developed economies as the crisis unfolds, he warned.
"What about all the people in countries that minded their manners, saved their money, didn't get overextended and now all of a sudden they're being asked to bail out a bunch of guys on Wall Street who were incompetent at best and some of them crooks?"
"I thought it outrageous that anybody has to step in a bail out a bunch of 29 year olds driving Maseratis," he said.
There are not many safe havens in the volatile markets, he said.
"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products… there's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight."
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired," Rogers added.
© 2008 CNBC.com
http://www.cnbc.com//id/27097823
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Denmark Offers a Model Mortgage Market
Denmark Offers a Model Mortgage Market
There is a safe way to securitize home loans.
By GEORGE SOROS
The American system of mortgage financing is broken and needs a total overhaul. Until there is a realistic prospect of stabilizing housing prices, the value of mortgage-related securities will erode and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's efforts will come to naught.
There are four fundamental problems with our current system of mortgage financing.
First, the business model of Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) in which profits accrue to the private sector but risks are underwritten by the public has proven unworkable. It would be a grave mistake to preserve the GSEs in anything resembling their current form.
Second, the American style of mortgage securitization is rife with conflicts where entities that originate, securitize and service mortgages are generally not the same as those that invest in mortgage securities. As a result, the incentives to originate sound mortgages and to service them well are inadequate. No wonder that the quality of mortgages degenerated so rapidly.
Third, mortgage-backed securitizations, which were meant to reduce risk by creating geographically diversified pools of mortgages, actually increased risk by creating complex capital structures that impede the modification of mortgages in the case of default.
Finally, and most fundamentally, the American mortgages market is asymmetric. When interest rates fall and house prices rise, mortgages can be refinanced at par value, generating the mortgage equity withdrawals that fueled the housing bubble. However, when interest rates rise and house prices fall, mortgages can only be refinanced at par value even though the market price of the securitized mortgage has fallen.
To reconstruct our mortgage system on a sounder basis, we ought to look to the Danish model, which has withstood many tests since it was brought into existence after the great fire of Copenhagen in 1795. It remains the best performing in Europe during the current crisis. First, it is an open system in which all mortgage originators can participate on equal terms as long as they meet the rigorous regulatory requirements. There are no GSEs enjoying a quasimonopolistic position.
Second, mortgage originators are required to retain credit risk and to perform the servicing functions, thereby properly aligning the incentives. Third, the mortgage is funded by the issuance of standardized bonds, creating a large and liquid market. Indeed, the spread on Danish mortgage bonds is similar to the option-adjusted spread on bonds issued by the GSEs, although they carry no implicit government guarantees.
Finally, the asymmetric nature of American mortgages is replaced by what the Danes call the Principle of Balance. Every mortgage is instantly converted into a security of the same amount and the two remain interchangeable at all times. Homeowners can retire mortgages not only by paying them off, but also by buying an equivalent face amount of bonds at market price. Because the value of homes and the associated mortgage bonds tend to move in the same direction, homeowners should not end up with negative equity in their homes. To state it more clearly, as home prices decline, the amount that a homeowner must spend to retire his mortgage decreases because he can buy the bonds at lower prices.
The U.S. can emulate the Danish system with surprisingly few modifications from our current practices. What is required is transparent, standardized securities which create large and fungible pools. Today in the U.S., over half of all mortgages are securitized by Ginnie Mae, which issues standardized securities. All that is missing is allowing the borrowers to redeem their mortgages at the lower of par or market.
Because of the current havoc in the mortgage market, there is no confidence in the origination and securitization process. As a result, a government guarantee is indispensable at this time, and may be needed for the next few years. As the private sector regains its strength, the government guarantees could, and should, be gradually phased out.
How to get there from here? It will involve modifying the existing stock of mortgages, so that the principal does not exceed the current market value of the houses, and refinancing them with Danish-style loans. The modification will have to be done by servicing companies that need to be properly incentivized. Modifying mortgages that have been sliced and diced into securitizations may require legislative authorization. The virtual monopoly of the GSEs would be terminated and they would be liquidated over time.
A plan to reorganize the mortgage industry along these lines would inspire the confidence that would allow a successful recapitalization of the banking system with the help of the $700 billion package approved last week.
Mr. Soros is chairman of Soros Fund Management and the author of "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets" (Public Affairs, 2008).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360660328622015.html
There is a safe way to securitize home loans.
By GEORGE SOROS
The American system of mortgage financing is broken and needs a total overhaul. Until there is a realistic prospect of stabilizing housing prices, the value of mortgage-related securities will erode and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's efforts will come to naught.
There are four fundamental problems with our current system of mortgage financing.
First, the business model of Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) in which profits accrue to the private sector but risks are underwritten by the public has proven unworkable. It would be a grave mistake to preserve the GSEs in anything resembling their current form.
Second, the American style of mortgage securitization is rife with conflicts where entities that originate, securitize and service mortgages are generally not the same as those that invest in mortgage securities. As a result, the incentives to originate sound mortgages and to service them well are inadequate. No wonder that the quality of mortgages degenerated so rapidly.
Third, mortgage-backed securitizations, which were meant to reduce risk by creating geographically diversified pools of mortgages, actually increased risk by creating complex capital structures that impede the modification of mortgages in the case of default.
Finally, and most fundamentally, the American mortgages market is asymmetric. When interest rates fall and house prices rise, mortgages can be refinanced at par value, generating the mortgage equity withdrawals that fueled the housing bubble. However, when interest rates rise and house prices fall, mortgages can only be refinanced at par value even though the market price of the securitized mortgage has fallen.
To reconstruct our mortgage system on a sounder basis, we ought to look to the Danish model, which has withstood many tests since it was brought into existence after the great fire of Copenhagen in 1795. It remains the best performing in Europe during the current crisis. First, it is an open system in which all mortgage originators can participate on equal terms as long as they meet the rigorous regulatory requirements. There are no GSEs enjoying a quasimonopolistic position.
Second, mortgage originators are required to retain credit risk and to perform the servicing functions, thereby properly aligning the incentives. Third, the mortgage is funded by the issuance of standardized bonds, creating a large and liquid market. Indeed, the spread on Danish mortgage bonds is similar to the option-adjusted spread on bonds issued by the GSEs, although they carry no implicit government guarantees.
Finally, the asymmetric nature of American mortgages is replaced by what the Danes call the Principle of Balance. Every mortgage is instantly converted into a security of the same amount and the two remain interchangeable at all times. Homeowners can retire mortgages not only by paying them off, but also by buying an equivalent face amount of bonds at market price. Because the value of homes and the associated mortgage bonds tend to move in the same direction, homeowners should not end up with negative equity in their homes. To state it more clearly, as home prices decline, the amount that a homeowner must spend to retire his mortgage decreases because he can buy the bonds at lower prices.
The U.S. can emulate the Danish system with surprisingly few modifications from our current practices. What is required is transparent, standardized securities which create large and fungible pools. Today in the U.S., over half of all mortgages are securitized by Ginnie Mae, which issues standardized securities. All that is missing is allowing the borrowers to redeem their mortgages at the lower of par or market.
Because of the current havoc in the mortgage market, there is no confidence in the origination and securitization process. As a result, a government guarantee is indispensable at this time, and may be needed for the next few years. As the private sector regains its strength, the government guarantees could, and should, be gradually phased out.
How to get there from here? It will involve modifying the existing stock of mortgages, so that the principal does not exceed the current market value of the houses, and refinancing them with Danish-style loans. The modification will have to be done by servicing companies that need to be properly incentivized. Modifying mortgages that have been sliced and diced into securitizations may require legislative authorization. The virtual monopoly of the GSEs would be terminated and they would be liquidated over time.
A plan to reorganize the mortgage industry along these lines would inspire the confidence that would allow a successful recapitalization of the banking system with the help of the $700 billion package approved last week.
Mr. Soros is chairman of Soros Fund Management and the author of "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets" (Public Affairs, 2008).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360660328622015.html
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Pulling on shorts
Pulling on shorts
By Emiliya Mychasuk and Emiko Terazono
Published: October 8 2008 03:00 Last updated: October 8 2008 03:00
US hedge fund manager John Paulson's crew in London, led by Harry St John Cooper and Nikolai Petchenikov, still have their shorts on banks.
Ignoring John Varley's protestations about Barclays' strength, taking first place in the UK portfolio of bank short positions is Paulson & Co's 1.18 per cent short on Barclays, as well as 0.87p per cent of RBS, alongside HBOS and Lloyds TSB.
Lansdowne Partners, the London fund founded by Paul Ruddock which bet against Northern Rock, also has a bet against Barclays, with a smallish 0.5 per cent short position. Government moves to short-up its big banks could leave them all feeling cold.
09/10/2008
John Paulson still short the UK banks. Especially Barclays and RBS. I wonder if he shorted other European banks.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Jim Rogers: Commodities have another decade or longer to run
Jim Rogers: Commodities have another decade or longer to run
Posted: October 03, 2008, 12:00 PM by Peter Koven
With global growth slowing and commodity stocks collapsing, investors are all asking: is the big resource boom coming to end?
Not even close, according to one of its biggest backers.
Speaking at the Toronto CFA Society's annual forecast dinner, high-profile investor Jim Rogers laid out the case that commodity prices are going to stay elevated for a long time, regardless of the unprecedented turmoil in the United States.
Mr. Rogers, who famously spent three years driving around the world, argued that most people still "don't know anything" about commodities despite the boom of the last five years (even saying that less than 100 of the world's 70,000 mutual funds are focused on them). He pointed out that other resource booms have lasted 15 to 23 years, and there is no reason to think this one will be any different. He figures it could run to around 2018 or 2020.
Of course, the main reason he cited is China. He said the 21st century belongs to the Chinese the way the 20th belonged to America, and practically pleaded with the audience to teach their kids Mandarin. He added that three billion people in Asia want to live like we do, and this will continue to constrain supplies well into the future.
"In China, you're still allowed to sell short," he chuckled, getting a big laugh from the audience.
As far as the latest market turmoil goes, he acknowledged that a U.S. recession could keep pushing everything down in the short-term, but eventually fundamentals will win out.
"My little girls have never owned a stock or bond. They only own commodities," he said.
And for all the Wall Street MBAs that are now out of work, Mr. Rogers has some advice: "Learn how to drive a tractor."
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2008/10/03/jim-rogers-commodities-have-another-decade-or-longer-to-run.aspx
06/10/2008
According to Jim, commodities will have another 10 years to run until 2018 ro 2020.
Posted: October 03, 2008, 12:00 PM by Peter Koven
With global growth slowing and commodity stocks collapsing, investors are all asking: is the big resource boom coming to end?
Not even close, according to one of its biggest backers.
Speaking at the Toronto CFA Society's annual forecast dinner, high-profile investor Jim Rogers laid out the case that commodity prices are going to stay elevated for a long time, regardless of the unprecedented turmoil in the United States.
Mr. Rogers, who famously spent three years driving around the world, argued that most people still "don't know anything" about commodities despite the boom of the last five years (even saying that less than 100 of the world's 70,000 mutual funds are focused on them). He pointed out that other resource booms have lasted 15 to 23 years, and there is no reason to think this one will be any different. He figures it could run to around 2018 or 2020.
Of course, the main reason he cited is China. He said the 21st century belongs to the Chinese the way the 20th belonged to America, and practically pleaded with the audience to teach their kids Mandarin. He added that three billion people in Asia want to live like we do, and this will continue to constrain supplies well into the future.
"In China, you're still allowed to sell short," he chuckled, getting a big laugh from the audience.
As far as the latest market turmoil goes, he acknowledged that a U.S. recession could keep pushing everything down in the short-term, but eventually fundamentals will win out.
"My little girls have never owned a stock or bond. They only own commodities," he said.
And for all the Wall Street MBAs that are now out of work, Mr. Rogers has some advice: "Learn how to drive a tractor."
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2008/10/03/jim-rogers-commodities-have-another-decade-or-longer-to-run.aspx
06/10/2008
According to Jim, commodities will have another 10 years to run until 2018 ro 2020.
Paulson punt
Paulson punt
By Emiliya Mychasuk and Emiko Terazono
Published: October 2 2008 03:00 Last updated: October 2 2008 03:00
Stellar returns in his bets against big banks leave John Paulson 's hedge funds way ahead, but did Paulson & Co cover short positions on HBOS as the discount to the offer from Lloyds TSB narrows? As of September 30 - its latest filing - Paulson seemed to be betting on the deal not happening, in spite of the best efforts of Gordon Brown. It had a short position of 0.95 per cent on HBOS and 1.67 per cent on Lloyds TSB.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc9594b0-901b-11dd-9890-0000779fd18c.html
06/10/2008
John Paulson still short on UK banks.
By Emiliya Mychasuk and Emiko Terazono
Published: October 2 2008 03:00 Last updated: October 2 2008 03:00
Stellar returns in his bets against big banks leave John Paulson 's hedge funds way ahead, but did Paulson & Co cover short positions on HBOS as the discount to the offer from Lloyds TSB narrows? As of September 30 - its latest filing - Paulson seemed to be betting on the deal not happening, in spite of the best efforts of Gordon Brown. It had a short position of 0.95 per cent on HBOS and 1.67 per cent on Lloyds TSB.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc9594b0-901b-11dd-9890-0000779fd18c.html
06/10/2008
John Paulson still short on UK banks.
Contrarian becomes pessimist
Contrarian becomes pessimist
William Hanley, Financial Post
Published: Friday, October 03, 2008
It's 8:20 a. m. and legendary investor Jim Rogers, after only a couple of hours' sleep following a red-eye flight from Frankfurt, is pedalling hard on the stationary bike at the Toronto Sheraton Centre gym and giving his hard-eyed view of the world. It is a view that is always provocative and often contrarian.
"I'm pessimistic because America is in recession and that's having an effect on Europe and Asia," he says, adding that the recession will last longer than most and be deeper than most because the U. S. government keeps making mistakes by bailing out one entity after another.
"The 29-year-olds on Wall Street and Bay Street have been driving Maseratis," Rogers says. "That's about to change. All these guys are going to have to learn to drive taxis. "
But the 65-year-old, Alabama-born investor -- who made his reputation as George Soros's Quantum Fund partner in the 1970s and who famously called the current commodities boom -- is not pessimistic about the future of natural resources and, by extension, Canada and the Canadian dollar.
"Canada is a much better place to be than America," he says, while conceding the U. S. recession could hit the country's industrial heartland.
Rogers was in Toronto yesterday --before taking another red-eye flight to his new home in Singapore -- to participate in a noon CEO roundtable and then speak at the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts' annual forecast dinner.
That he moved his young family to Singapore in June, 2007, and sold his Upper West Side New York home for US$16-million speaks to his view that Wall Street will be in decline for at least a generation and that Asia is on the rise. His children speak Chinese. So Singapore, besides being a great place to live, is a good place for them to develop their skills in the language of the future.
"The new financial centre could be in Shanghai or maybe in Singapore," Rogers says. "I really don't know where, but it's shifting from New York and London toward Asia."
So if the U. S. economy is in decline and the markets are struggling mightily, how is one of the world's most successful investors employing his considerable fortune? Commodities He continues to own the commodities themselves, not commodities stocks, because the current drop in natural-resource prices is just a correction that could last a quarter, a half or even a year. He notes that oil has had three corrections of 40% or more since its bull market started in 1990 and come back each time.
Stocks He has been buying shares in some airlines, "a disaster area that's close to a bottom," and some beaten-up Chinese stocks. The planes he flies on are mostly full and fares are soaring. "Airline stocks will shine in the next bull market -- if we have a bull market." Meanwhile, he is monitoring auto stocks, which may become the next disaster area over the coming years. Currencies Rogers is holding on to the Canadian dollars -- "one of the soundest fundamental currencies" -- he began buying years ago when he saw the commodities boom unfolding against a much-improved Canadian fiscal backdrop. "And I will be buying more along the line." But recently he has been buying Swiss francs and yen.
Bonds He has been shorting the U. S. long bond in the belief that the growing mountain of U. S. debt and the necessity to print money to finance it means bonds have made a long-term top. "Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years to come."
And for years to come, Rogers says, water treatment, agriculture and Chinese tourism will be good places to be. China and India, especially, have huge water problems, food inventories are falling even as farmland is taken out of production and 1.3 billion Chinese are now able to travel freely in the world.
Those are the next big things. The best thing to do now in these clamorous markets, Rogers tells a reporter, might be to do nothing unless you have to. "You might just want to head to the beach."
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=857919
William Hanley, Financial Post
Published: Friday, October 03, 2008
It's 8:20 a. m. and legendary investor Jim Rogers, after only a couple of hours' sleep following a red-eye flight from Frankfurt, is pedalling hard on the stationary bike at the Toronto Sheraton Centre gym and giving his hard-eyed view of the world. It is a view that is always provocative and often contrarian.
"I'm pessimistic because America is in recession and that's having an effect on Europe and Asia," he says, adding that the recession will last longer than most and be deeper than most because the U. S. government keeps making mistakes by bailing out one entity after another.
"The 29-year-olds on Wall Street and Bay Street have been driving Maseratis," Rogers says. "That's about to change. All these guys are going to have to learn to drive taxis. "
But the 65-year-old, Alabama-born investor -- who made his reputation as George Soros's Quantum Fund partner in the 1970s and who famously called the current commodities boom -- is not pessimistic about the future of natural resources and, by extension, Canada and the Canadian dollar.
"Canada is a much better place to be than America," he says, while conceding the U. S. recession could hit the country's industrial heartland.
Rogers was in Toronto yesterday --before taking another red-eye flight to his new home in Singapore -- to participate in a noon CEO roundtable and then speak at the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts' annual forecast dinner.
That he moved his young family to Singapore in June, 2007, and sold his Upper West Side New York home for US$16-million speaks to his view that Wall Street will be in decline for at least a generation and that Asia is on the rise. His children speak Chinese. So Singapore, besides being a great place to live, is a good place for them to develop their skills in the language of the future.
"The new financial centre could be in Shanghai or maybe in Singapore," Rogers says. "I really don't know where, but it's shifting from New York and London toward Asia."
So if the U. S. economy is in decline and the markets are struggling mightily, how is one of the world's most successful investors employing his considerable fortune? Commodities He continues to own the commodities themselves, not commodities stocks, because the current drop in natural-resource prices is just a correction that could last a quarter, a half or even a year. He notes that oil has had three corrections of 40% or more since its bull market started in 1990 and come back each time.
Stocks He has been buying shares in some airlines, "a disaster area that's close to a bottom," and some beaten-up Chinese stocks. The planes he flies on are mostly full and fares are soaring. "Airline stocks will shine in the next bull market -- if we have a bull market." Meanwhile, he is monitoring auto stocks, which may become the next disaster area over the coming years. Currencies Rogers is holding on to the Canadian dollars -- "one of the soundest fundamental currencies" -- he began buying years ago when he saw the commodities boom unfolding against a much-improved Canadian fiscal backdrop. "And I will be buying more along the line." But recently he has been buying Swiss francs and yen.
Bonds He has been shorting the U. S. long bond in the belief that the growing mountain of U. S. debt and the necessity to print money to finance it means bonds have made a long-term top. "Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years to come."
And for years to come, Rogers says, water treatment, agriculture and Chinese tourism will be good places to be. China and India, especially, have huge water problems, food inventories are falling even as farmland is taken out of production and 1.3 billion Chinese are now able to travel freely in the world.
Those are the next big things. The best thing to do now in these clamorous markets, Rogers tells a reporter, might be to do nothing unless you have to. "You might just want to head to the beach."
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=857919
Friday, October 3, 2008
Canada Will Feel U.S. Problems, But Won't Suffer as Much, U.S. Investment Guru Says
Canada Will Feel U.S. Problems, But Won't Suffer as Much, U.S. Investment Guru Says
10/02/08 06:02 pm (EST)
(CEP NEWS) Toronto - Canada's economy should feel some side-effects from America's weak economy, but won't suffer as much as the U.S. system, author and investment guru Jim Rogers told reporters before a speech in Toronto Thursday."Canada's better positioned than most places in the world right now," Rogers told a gathering of reporters a few hours ahead of his scheduled speech to the Toronto Chartered Financial Accountants Society.
The former Wall Street veteran said Canada won't suffer as much as the U.S. because the last few federal governments have managed Canada's budget and trade matters better than the White House, and Canada retains strong commodity supplies.
"I'd rather be long on zinc than short on investment banks," said Rogers, noting that while commodity prices are undergoing a correction right now, there will eventually be commodity shortages after the global demand for them rebounds following the U.S. economic recovery.
Rogers, who co-founded Quantum Fund with investing heavyweight George Soros, criticized the massive U.S. bailout plan, saying the financial system must work through its own problems in a true free-market way rather than through government intervention.
"You get over your pain even though it's serious pain and then you progress," Rogers said. "The American government is getting it wrong ... and bailing out the wrong people." He accused the U.S. lawmakers behind the bailout plan of trying to "bail out their banking friends."
He predicted that in two years, when other problems crop up in the U.S. financial system, "the American government will be out of bullets."
Rogers pronounced that "America is in a recession and the world is in a recession." He also placed much of the blame for the current U.S. crisis on former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, and said Greenspan's successor Ben Bernanke "doesn't know anything about markets...he doesn't know anything about anything except printing money."
U.S. presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain were also in Rogers's firing line.
"Neither one of them has a clue. Both would be disastrous" for the U.S. economic recovery, he said.
Rogers said he's putting his money into airline stocks, Swiss francs, Japanese yen and agriculture stocks as long-term plays while shorting U.S. government long bonds.
He favours airline stocks because he believes demand for air travel as a global essential service industry will make a comeback once the airline sector emerges leaner and stronger from the current downturn.
http://www.forextv.com/Forex/News/ShowStoryCEP.jsp?seq=130612
03/10/2008
Jim prefers to put his money on Zinc rather that short investment banks.
10/02/08 06:02 pm (EST)
(CEP NEWS) Toronto - Canada's economy should feel some side-effects from America's weak economy, but won't suffer as much as the U.S. system, author and investment guru Jim Rogers told reporters before a speech in Toronto Thursday."Canada's better positioned than most places in the world right now," Rogers told a gathering of reporters a few hours ahead of his scheduled speech to the Toronto Chartered Financial Accountants Society.
The former Wall Street veteran said Canada won't suffer as much as the U.S. because the last few federal governments have managed Canada's budget and trade matters better than the White House, and Canada retains strong commodity supplies.
"I'd rather be long on zinc than short on investment banks," said Rogers, noting that while commodity prices are undergoing a correction right now, there will eventually be commodity shortages after the global demand for them rebounds following the U.S. economic recovery.
Rogers, who co-founded Quantum Fund with investing heavyweight George Soros, criticized the massive U.S. bailout plan, saying the financial system must work through its own problems in a true free-market way rather than through government intervention.
"You get over your pain even though it's serious pain and then you progress," Rogers said. "The American government is getting it wrong ... and bailing out the wrong people." He accused the U.S. lawmakers behind the bailout plan of trying to "bail out their banking friends."
He predicted that in two years, when other problems crop up in the U.S. financial system, "the American government will be out of bullets."
Rogers pronounced that "America is in a recession and the world is in a recession." He also placed much of the blame for the current U.S. crisis on former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, and said Greenspan's successor Ben Bernanke "doesn't know anything about markets...he doesn't know anything about anything except printing money."
U.S. presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain were also in Rogers's firing line.
"Neither one of them has a clue. Both would be disastrous" for the U.S. economic recovery, he said.
Rogers said he's putting his money into airline stocks, Swiss francs, Japanese yen and agriculture stocks as long-term plays while shorting U.S. government long bonds.
He favours airline stocks because he believes demand for air travel as a global essential service industry will make a comeback once the airline sector emerges leaner and stronger from the current downturn.
http://www.forextv.com/Forex/News/ShowStoryCEP.jsp?seq=130612
03/10/2008
Jim prefers to put his money on Zinc rather that short investment banks.
Recapitalise the banking system
Recapitalise the banking system
By George Soros
Published: October 2 2008 03:00 Last updated: October 2 2008 03:00
George Soros: The emergency legislation before Congress was ill-conceived - or, more accurately, not conceived at all. As Congress tried to improve what Treasury requested, an amalgam plan has emerged that consists of Treasury's original troubled asset relief programme and a quite different capital infusion programme in which the government invests in and stabilises weakened banks and profits from the economy's eventual improvement. The capital infusion approach will cost taxpayers less in future years and may even make money for them.
Two weeks ago the Treasury did not have a plan ready - that is why it had to ask for total discretion in spending the money. But the general idea was to bring relief to the banking system by relieving banks of their toxic securities and parking them in a government-owned fund so that they would not be dumped on the market at distressed prices. With the value of their investments stabilised, banks would then be able to raise equity capital.
The idea was fraught with difficulties. The toxic securities in question are not homogenous and in any auction process the sellers are liable to dump the dregs on to the government fund. Moreover, the scheme addresses only one half of the underlying problem - the lack of credit availability. It does very little to enable house owners to meet their mortgage obligations and it does not address the foreclosure problem. With house prices not yet at the bottom, if the government bids up the price of mortgage-backed securities, the taxpayers are liable to loose; but if the government does not pay up, the banking system does not experience much relief and cannot attract equity capital from the private sector.
A scheme so heavily favouring Wall Street over Main Street was politically unacceptable. It was tweaked by the Democrats, who hold the upper hand, so that it penalises the financial institutions that seek to take advantage of it. The Republicans did not want to be left behind and imposed a requirement that the tendered securities should be insured against loss at the expense of the tendering institution. The rescue package as it is now constituted is an amalgam of multiple approaches. There is now a real danger that the asset purchase programme will not be fully utilised because of the onerous conditions attached to it.
Nevertheless, a rescue package was desperately needed and, in spite of its shortcomings, would change the course of events. As late as September 22, Treasury secretary Hank Paulson hoped to avoid using taxpayers' money; that is why he allowed Lehman Brothers to fail. Tarp establishes the principle that public funds are needed and, if the present programme does not work, other programmes will be instituted. We will have crossed the Rubicon.
Since Tarp was ill-conceived, it is liable to arouse a negative response from America's creditors. They would see it as an attempt to inflate away the debt. The dollar is liable to come under renewed pressure and the government will have to pay more for its debt, especially at the long end. These adverse consequences could be mitigated by using taxpayers' funds more effectively.
Instead of just purchasing troubled assets the bulk of the funds ought to be used to recapitalise the banking system. Funds injected at the equity level are more high-powered than funds used at the balance sheet level by a minimal factor of 12 - effectively giving the government $8,400bn to re-ignite the flow of credit. In practice, the effect would be even greater because the injection of government funds would also attract private capital. The result would be more economic recovery and the chance for taxpayers to profit from the recovery.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/066324b0-901b-11dd-9890-0000779fd18c.html
03/10/2008
What was written by George Soros is exactly the same message that John Paulson is advocating. Instead of getting the bad assets off the ballance sheets of banks, it is better to inject cash into the banks itself. I am not sure what sis the rational behind it.
By George Soros
Published: October 2 2008 03:00 Last updated: October 2 2008 03:00
George Soros: The emergency legislation before Congress was ill-conceived - or, more accurately, not conceived at all. As Congress tried to improve what Treasury requested, an amalgam plan has emerged that consists of Treasury's original troubled asset relief programme and a quite different capital infusion programme in which the government invests in and stabilises weakened banks and profits from the economy's eventual improvement. The capital infusion approach will cost taxpayers less in future years and may even make money for them.
Two weeks ago the Treasury did not have a plan ready - that is why it had to ask for total discretion in spending the money. But the general idea was to bring relief to the banking system by relieving banks of their toxic securities and parking them in a government-owned fund so that they would not be dumped on the market at distressed prices. With the value of their investments stabilised, banks would then be able to raise equity capital.
The idea was fraught with difficulties. The toxic securities in question are not homogenous and in any auction process the sellers are liable to dump the dregs on to the government fund. Moreover, the scheme addresses only one half of the underlying problem - the lack of credit availability. It does very little to enable house owners to meet their mortgage obligations and it does not address the foreclosure problem. With house prices not yet at the bottom, if the government bids up the price of mortgage-backed securities, the taxpayers are liable to loose; but if the government does not pay up, the banking system does not experience much relief and cannot attract equity capital from the private sector.
A scheme so heavily favouring Wall Street over Main Street was politically unacceptable. It was tweaked by the Democrats, who hold the upper hand, so that it penalises the financial institutions that seek to take advantage of it. The Republicans did not want to be left behind and imposed a requirement that the tendered securities should be insured against loss at the expense of the tendering institution. The rescue package as it is now constituted is an amalgam of multiple approaches. There is now a real danger that the asset purchase programme will not be fully utilised because of the onerous conditions attached to it.
Nevertheless, a rescue package was desperately needed and, in spite of its shortcomings, would change the course of events. As late as September 22, Treasury secretary Hank Paulson hoped to avoid using taxpayers' money; that is why he allowed Lehman Brothers to fail. Tarp establishes the principle that public funds are needed and, if the present programme does not work, other programmes will be instituted. We will have crossed the Rubicon.
Since Tarp was ill-conceived, it is liable to arouse a negative response from America's creditors. They would see it as an attempt to inflate away the debt. The dollar is liable to come under renewed pressure and the government will have to pay more for its debt, especially at the long end. These adverse consequences could be mitigated by using taxpayers' funds more effectively.
Instead of just purchasing troubled assets the bulk of the funds ought to be used to recapitalise the banking system. Funds injected at the equity level are more high-powered than funds used at the balance sheet level by a minimal factor of 12 - effectively giving the government $8,400bn to re-ignite the flow of credit. In practice, the effect would be even greater because the injection of government funds would also attract private capital. The result would be more economic recovery and the chance for taxpayers to profit from the recovery.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/066324b0-901b-11dd-9890-0000779fd18c.html
03/10/2008
What was written by George Soros is exactly the same message that John Paulson is advocating. Instead of getting the bad assets off the ballance sheets of banks, it is better to inject cash into the banks itself. I am not sure what sis the rational behind it.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Bailout Would Only Prolong Crisis: Jim Rogers
Bailout Would Only Prolong Crisis: Jim Rogers
The $700 billion bailout package that Congress is scrambling to pass will only prolong economic woes, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Wednesday.
"History shows these plans don't work. What does work is to let the market clean itself out," Rogers told "Worldwide Exchange".
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, like his predecessor Alan Greenspan and together with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have been intervening in the markets and preventing them from acting naturally, he added.
"Capitalism is where the market does its work. These guys, for the last 8 to10 years, have refused to let the market do its work to clean itself out," Rogers said.
Bernanke and Paulson, have been "dead wrong" for the past two years for telling the public that overall the US economy was fine, "why would anybody listen to them?," he added.
Rogers cited the examples of Russia and South Korea, both marred by crises toward the end of the 1990s, and which afterwards enjoyed years of rapid growth.
"You let things collapse…and you have a clean growth afterwards," he said.
Rogers said he was back into buying Chinese shares over the past weeks as the country's monetary policy had started to loosen up, and that commodities offered better returns than stocks.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26969555
The $700 billion bailout package that Congress is scrambling to pass will only prolong economic woes, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Wednesday.
"History shows these plans don't work. What does work is to let the market clean itself out," Rogers told "Worldwide Exchange".
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, like his predecessor Alan Greenspan and together with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have been intervening in the markets and preventing them from acting naturally, he added.
"Capitalism is where the market does its work. These guys, for the last 8 to10 years, have refused to let the market do its work to clean itself out," Rogers said.
Bernanke and Paulson, have been "dead wrong" for the past two years for telling the public that overall the US economy was fine, "why would anybody listen to them?," he added.
Rogers cited the examples of Russia and South Korea, both marred by crises toward the end of the 1990s, and which afterwards enjoyed years of rapid growth.
"You let things collapse…and you have a clean growth afterwards," he said.
Rogers said he was back into buying Chinese shares over the past weeks as the country's monetary policy had started to loosen up, and that commodities offered better returns than stocks.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26969555
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Rogers Says U.S. Should Let Banks Fail, Clean Out System
Rogers Says U.S. Should Let Banks Fail, Clean Out System
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Erik Schatzker from Frankfurt about the proposed $700 billion bank rescue package, his position that allowing banks to fail will provide a necessary cleansing of the financial system, and investment strategy.
"Clowns" in Washington doing "wrong thing."
Consequences of not implementing rescue plan0
Criticism of Paulson, Bernanke, Tim Geithner
Rogers' strategy: "sitting and watching"
Rogers' plan to "sell" rally if plan passes
Running time 07:50
Last Updated: September 30, 2008 08:09 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQBlHJQcqQbQ
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vTl1McjXM2JA.asf
tjhinkh 01/10/2009
By rescuing Wall Street, the recovey period will be longer. History have shown that in 1970
Wall Street was bailed out and the 1970 went through terrible times. Japan bail out their
banks in 1990 and the are still talking that 1990 is a lost generation.
But Korea and Russia just let it fail and pubish those people that did wrong. They have
a recession for a year or two and they are now a thring nations.
If the US government bail the market, there will be a rally and Jim is planning to short it
in the future. One week, one month or one year later.
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Erik Schatzker from Frankfurt about the proposed $700 billion bank rescue package, his position that allowing banks to fail will provide a necessary cleansing of the financial system, and investment strategy.
"Clowns" in Washington doing "wrong thing."
Consequences of not implementing rescue plan0
Criticism of Paulson, Bernanke, Tim Geithner
Rogers' strategy: "sitting and watching"
Rogers' plan to "sell" rally if plan passes
Running time 07:50
Last Updated: September 30, 2008 08:09 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQBlHJQcqQbQ
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vTl1McjXM2JA.asf
tjhinkh 01/10/2009
By rescuing Wall Street, the recovey period will be longer. History have shown that in 1970
Wall Street was bailed out and the 1970 went through terrible times. Japan bail out their
banks in 1990 and the are still talking that 1990 is a lost generation.
But Korea and Russia just let it fail and pubish those people that did wrong. They have
a recession for a year or two and they are now a thring nations.
If the US government bail the market, there will be a rally and Jim is planning to short it
in the future. One week, one month or one year later.
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