Jim Rogers: Commodities have another decade or longer to run

Jim Rogers: Commodities have another decade or longer to run

Posted: October 03, 2008, 12:00 PM by Peter Koven

With global growth slowing and commodity stocks collapsing, investors are all asking: is the big resource boom coming to end?

Not even close, according to one of its biggest backers.

Speaking at the Toronto CFA Society's annual forecast dinner, high-profile investor Jim Rogers laid out the case that commodity prices are going to stay elevated for a long time, regardless of the unprecedented turmoil in the United States.

Mr. Rogers, who famously spent three years driving around the world, argued that most people still "don't know anything" about commodities despite the boom of the last five years (even saying that less than 100 of the world's 70,000 mutual funds are focused on them). He pointed out that other resource booms have lasted 15 to 23 years, and there is no reason to think this one will be any different. He figures it could run to around 2018 or 2020.

Of course, the main reason he cited is China. He said the 21st century belongs to the Chinese the way the 20th belonged to America, and practically pleaded with the audience to teach their kids Mandarin. He added that three billion people in Asia want to live like we do, and this will continue to constrain supplies well into the future.

"In China, you're still allowed to sell short," he chuckled, getting a big laugh from the audience.
As far as the latest market turmoil goes, he acknowledged that a U.S. recession could keep pushing everything down in the short-term, but eventually fundamentals will win out.
"My little girls have never owned a stock or bond. They only own commodities," he said.
And for all the Wall Street MBAs that are now out of work, Mr. Rogers has some advice: "Learn how to drive a tractor."

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2008/10/03/jim-rogers-commodities-have-another-decade-or-longer-to-run.aspx

06/10/2008
According to Jim, commodities will have another 10 years to run until 2018 ro 2020.