Rogers Says `Plenty of Reasons' to Bet Against JPMorgan
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt about the outlook for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and his investment strategy.
Rogers, speaking from Singapore, also discusses agricultural commodities, U.S. Treasuries and this weekend's meeting of the finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Sees stocks in bear market rally, stimulus
01:35 Wen's comments and concerns about U.S. debt
02:04 Dollar, yen in "artificial rallies"; strategy
03:11 Commodities, gold, silver strategy, IMF sale
04:51 Sees interest rates "going through the roof"
05:23 U.S. banks, shorting JPMorgan; insurance
07:03 G-20 meeting "not going to change anything"
07:44 Favors agricultural commodities, inventories
Running time 08:47
Last Updated: March 13, 2009 06:56 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2zGfB0HYwSc
16/02/2009
Jim is shorting JP Morgan. He said: "Their off-balance-sheet derivative positions are among the top three in the world, if not the largest. The bank’s credit-card loans also are a disaster waiting to happen." Stock may rally as it has gone down so much. But it is a bear rally, which is the conventional wisdom today.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Last Modified: 03 Mar 2009
By: Faisal Islam
Jim Rogers, the co-founder of the hedge fund, the Quantum Fund, talks to Faisal Islam about the world economic downturn.
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Speaking exclusively to Channel 4 News, Jim Rogers says politicians could be leading us into another Great Depression.
One of the world's leading financiers has called the economic rescue plans being put forward by Gordon Brown and President Obama, ludicrous and insane.
He has been called a Wall Street legend for his investment nous. Now he sees a fundamental shift of power from the west to east. Our economics correspondent Faisal Islam reports.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/interview+jim+rogers/3009962
Last Modified: 03 Mar 2009
By: Faisal Islam
Jim Rogers, the co-founder of the hedge fund, the Quantum Fund, talks to Faisal Islam about the world economic downturn.
Rescue plan 'ludicrous and insane'
Speaking exclusively to Channel 4 News, Jim Rogers says politicians could be leading us into another Great Depression.
One of the world's leading financiers has called the economic rescue plans being put forward by Gordon Brown and President Obama, ludicrous and insane.
He has been called a Wall Street legend for his investment nous. Now he sees a fundamental shift of power from the west to east. Our economics correspondent Faisal Islam reports.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/interview+jim+rogers/3009962
Jim Rogers: U.S. stocks have yet to hit bottom
Jim Rogers: U.S. stocks have yet to hit bottom
Tue Mar 3, 2009 4:16pm EST
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, the investor who had co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, on Tuesday said U.S. stocks have yet to hit their bottom in this bear market, saying there could be no lasting rally until the economy recovers.
Rogers said he is unsure where to invest, although he likely will sell the U.S. dollar -- which he called "terribly flawed" -- and buy commodities. He was one of the earliest investors to predict the boom in commodities in recent years,
He told Reuters that efforts to pull the economy out of a steep downturn will not drive a lasting recovery because the government is propping up failing businesses and not allowing them to go bankrupt.
"None of which does much for the economy down the road. It's trying to postpone some pain we're going to have to take," he said in an interview from Singapore, where he lives.
Rogers said Japan tried fiscal stimulus to no avail, while countries that bit the bullet --such as Mexico after the peso crisis and Sweden after its bank crisis, both in the 1990s -- bounced back and did not prolong an economic morass.
U.S. stocks may rally because of the enormous amount of money the government is pumping into the U.S. economy, but "it's not going to last," Rogers said.
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom. The economy is going to get worse. You can't have a good stock market without a good economy," he said.
Rogers, who has railed at U.S. government efforts to stabilize the financial sector, said there will be a currency crisis in 2009 or 2010 that will "cause all sorts of turmoil and opportunities and losses."
"I want to get out of the U.S. dollar sometime this year, at least I plan to, because it's a terribly flawed currency," he said.
Meanwhile, Rogers is pondering his next investment decision.
"I don't know where I'm going to wind up putting my money. But at the moment I'm doing nothing but watching," he said. "I may just have to wind up putting it all in commodities because commodities are the only thing (whose) fundamentals are being enhanced."
Rogers rose to fame after co-founding the now-closed Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund returned 4,200 percent over that decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5226B120090303
05/03/2009 tjhinkh:
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom.
You can't have a good stock market without a good economy
Currency crisis in 2009 or 2010. Plan to get out of USD. Not sure to where maybe all commodities
Tue Mar 3, 2009 4:16pm EST
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, the investor who had co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, on Tuesday said U.S. stocks have yet to hit their bottom in this bear market, saying there could be no lasting rally until the economy recovers.
Rogers said he is unsure where to invest, although he likely will sell the U.S. dollar -- which he called "terribly flawed" -- and buy commodities. He was one of the earliest investors to predict the boom in commodities in recent years,
He told Reuters that efforts to pull the economy out of a steep downturn will not drive a lasting recovery because the government is propping up failing businesses and not allowing them to go bankrupt.
"None of which does much for the economy down the road. It's trying to postpone some pain we're going to have to take," he said in an interview from Singapore, where he lives.
Rogers said Japan tried fiscal stimulus to no avail, while countries that bit the bullet --such as Mexico after the peso crisis and Sweden after its bank crisis, both in the 1990s -- bounced back and did not prolong an economic morass.
U.S. stocks may rally because of the enormous amount of money the government is pumping into the U.S. economy, but "it's not going to last," Rogers said.
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom. The economy is going to get worse. You can't have a good stock market without a good economy," he said.
Rogers, who has railed at U.S. government efforts to stabilize the financial sector, said there will be a currency crisis in 2009 or 2010 that will "cause all sorts of turmoil and opportunities and losses."
"I want to get out of the U.S. dollar sometime this year, at least I plan to, because it's a terribly flawed currency," he said.
Meanwhile, Rogers is pondering his next investment decision.
"I don't know where I'm going to wind up putting my money. But at the moment I'm doing nothing but watching," he said. "I may just have to wind up putting it all in commodities because commodities are the only thing (whose) fundamentals are being enhanced."
Rogers rose to fame after co-founding the now-closed Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund returned 4,200 percent over that decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5226B120090303
05/03/2009 tjhinkh:
"I don't think the bottom is here, maybe 'a' bottom, but not 'the' bottom.
You can't have a good stock market without a good economy
Currency crisis in 2009 or 2010. Plan to get out of USD. Not sure to where maybe all commodities
Monday, February 23, 2009
Soros Says Financial Crisis Marks End of a Free-Market Model
Soros Says Financial Crisis Marks End of a Free-Market Model
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros said the current economic crisis has its roots in the financial deregulation of the 1980s and marks the end of a free-market model that has since dominated capitalist countries.
Liberalization of the financial industry begun by the Reagan administration has led to a series of breakdowns forcing government intervention, Soros told economists and bankers last night at a private dinner at Columbia University in New York. The global recession, triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, has “damaged the financial system itself,” he said.
Regulators are in part to blame because they “abrogated” their responsibilities, Soros, 78, said. The philosophy of “market-fundamentalism” was now under question as financial markets have proved to be inefficient and affected by biases rather than driven by all the available information, he said.
“We’re in a crisis I think that’s really the most serious since the 1930s and is different from all the other crises we have experienced in our lifetime,” Soros said.
Soros, founder of New York-based hedge-fund firm Soros Fund Management LLC, said last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the Obama administration’s plan to buy toxic assets from U.S. banks won’t be enough to get financial institutions to start lending again.
A more effective approach for restarting the economy would be to inject capital directly into the banks and cut minimum capital requirements, Soros, whose firm oversees $21 billion, has said.
Soros’s Quantum Endowment Fund returned 8 percent last year. That compared with an average loss of 18 percent by hedge funds, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. of Chicago.
To contact the reporter on this story: Walid el-Gabry in New York at welgabry@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay0FPxGdth_k&refer=home#
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros said the current economic crisis has its roots in the financial deregulation of the 1980s and marks the end of a free-market model that has since dominated capitalist countries.
Liberalization of the financial industry begun by the Reagan administration has led to a series of breakdowns forcing government intervention, Soros told economists and bankers last night at a private dinner at Columbia University in New York. The global recession, triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, has “damaged the financial system itself,” he said.
Regulators are in part to blame because they “abrogated” their responsibilities, Soros, 78, said. The philosophy of “market-fundamentalism” was now under question as financial markets have proved to be inefficient and affected by biases rather than driven by all the available information, he said.
“We’re in a crisis I think that’s really the most serious since the 1930s and is different from all the other crises we have experienced in our lifetime,” Soros said.
Soros, founder of New York-based hedge-fund firm Soros Fund Management LLC, said last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the Obama administration’s plan to buy toxic assets from U.S. banks won’t be enough to get financial institutions to start lending again.
A more effective approach for restarting the economy would be to inject capital directly into the banks and cut minimum capital requirements, Soros, whose firm oversees $21 billion, has said.
Soros’s Quantum Endowment Fund returned 8 percent last year. That compared with an average loss of 18 percent by hedge funds, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. of Chicago.
To contact the reporter on this story: Walid el-Gabry in New York at welgabry@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay0FPxGdth_k&refer=home#
Soros sees no bottom for world financial "collapse"
Soros sees no bottom for world financial "collapse"
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.
Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.
He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.
"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."
His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama.
Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain.
"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said.
(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa and Juan Lagorio; Editing by Gary Hill)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKTRE51K0AV20090221
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.
Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.
He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.
"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."
His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama.
Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain.
"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said.
(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa and Juan Lagorio; Editing by Gary Hill)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKTRE51K0AV20090221
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Rogers Says Geithner Caused Crisis, Must Let Banks Fail
Rogers Says Geithner Caused Crisis, Must Let Banks Fail
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Lori Rothman about U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's handling of the financial crisis.
Geithner yesterday pledged government financing for as much as $2 trillion of efforts to spur new lending and address banks' toxic assets. Rogers, speaking from Singapore, also discusses the U.S. banking industry and investment strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Geithner "caused this problem."
00:52 U.S. "making...the same mistake" as Japan
02:06 Plans for toxic assets, bank industry
03:24 Spending more "weakens the whole system."
05:28 Rogers's investment strategy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBOHy.t3p8HI
12/02/2009
Jim start to short US stock again. IBM GE JP Morgan.
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Lori Rothman about U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's handling of the financial crisis.
Geithner yesterday pledged government financing for as much as $2 trillion of efforts to spur new lending and address banks' toxic assets. Rogers, speaking from Singapore, also discusses the U.S. banking industry and investment strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 Geithner "caused this problem."
00:52 U.S. "making...the same mistake" as Japan
02:06 Plans for toxic assets, bank industry
03:24 Spending more "weakens the whole system."
05:28 Rogers's investment strategy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBOHy.t3p8HI
12/02/2009
Jim start to short US stock again. IBM GE JP Morgan.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Jim Rogers on Russia
Jim Rogers on Russia
February 5:
Thanks very much for giving us your time, first of all and welcome to Russia. You have made some investments in China because the government is planning big stimulus plan there, what are you making of what Russia`s doing, do you se anything interesting here in Russia that you`re investing in?
In October, November I did buy more Chinese stocks but I am not buying shares in any other country in the world right now, because most of the world is in serious trouble including China, don`t get me wrong, but I not investing anywhere and certainly not investing in Russia.
Certainly not, why?
Well, I am certainly not investing in America either, for that matter and certainly not in the UK but no, the Russians have lots of problems, deep seated problems as far as I am concerned, perhaps there`s a chance Russia will continue to disintegrate in more than one country. There are lots of potencial problems in the former soviet union.
Desintegrate, you mean, into separate countries?
The soviet union broke up into 15 countries, Russia itself has the potential to continue to break up, the Ukraine may break up Kazakisthan could break up, this is still not stable and every empire has disintegrated through out history. The reverberations have gone on for long periods of time. So I am sure there`s goods investment in Russia if you`re on the ground and you can stay with them, but not for me.
What in your opinion is Russia doing right and what is Russia doing wrong in handling this crisis?
Well, what they`re doing wrong is that they are propping up their banks which I find reprehensible I find bad economics and bad morality as well, the way the system is supposed to work is suppose you take the assets from the incompetent and give them to the competent and you start over from a stronger base. Well the rusians are making the same mistakes that the british and the Americans and everybody else is making. But taking the assets from the competent and giving them to the incompetent and know thy can compete with the competent, it weakens the whole system. Putin at least seems to understand that there is a problem with the US dollar, that the world needs to adjust to that problem, he seems to understand some of the problems the world faces better than we do in America, but for the most part the Russians are making mistakes too.
You said the Pound is finished, what is your take on the ruble?
Ahhh, the ruble. That`s a very good question. I am not sure, even is I had an answer I am not sure I would give it to you. No I am not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all. The Russian at least have natural resources to some extend but I am not optimistic about the continuing stability of Russia. The natural resources, the reserves are declining as you know, because they have been stripping the assets here in Russia for some time. Oil production peaked, production of most things peaked in Russia for the foreseeable future, so I am not buying the ruble either.
The Government announced that it would defend the ruble at 41 against the Euro / Dollar basket. Was that a mistake to announce a target?
It always as been in the past the market has learned in the last few sessions that you can always bet against the central banks and you will make money eventually. S when a central bank says “don`t you worry the pound is going to stay here or the ruble is going to stay here or whatever, ultimately that has always failed if the fi«undamentals are not sound and will fail again, everybody knows what the target is.
What is driving the fall of the ruble? Is it regular people panicking and putting their money into dollars, that one thing we`ve heard from bankers here at this forum, or is speculation?
Its mainly the Russians, in fact whenever a currency fails through out history it has always started internally, the foreigners always get the blame because the politians like to blame all their problems on the foreigners, because they don`t vote and their not there. Right now I think there something like 20 or 25% of deposits in banks in Russia in foreign currencies by Russian and not by foreigners. So its always starts with the local people, because local people always know best what`s going wrong and they start moving out. The speculators, historically always show in later.
So there are russian speculators that may be involved here too, or is this just the average bank depositor moving their money into dollars out of concern?
It seems pretty obvious that its intelligent people making intelligent decisions with their money, they can see there`s going to be problems with the rouble so they, intelligent russians have been moving out of the ruble. The rouble is down 50 or 60% in the last few moths, or in the last year or so.
The Central Bank said today that they won`t have to spill much blood to defend the ruble at 41, do you believe them?
I don`t believe in any central bank no matter what they say. The few times central banks have been right at something, you can count them with one hand. If you get your investment advice from central banks or governments you are going to go broke fast, don`t listen to those people.
Are you short the ruble?
I am not doing anything with the ruble, not right now. But knowing that the central bank drew a line in the sand it makes me stand up and take a little more notice about the ruble. So I will star thinking more about it.
Latest Jim Rogers interview. Jim Rogers went to Russia to participate in the The Russia Forum 2009 and spoke about stock markets around the world, the ruble devaluation, the us dollar and the mistakes Russia is making.
Jim is not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all.
Jim Rogers expects several currency crisis this year and that will be major opportunities in the currency markets. The next great currency to buy mught be the Brazilian Real or the Malaysian currency. Jim Rogers has been tranding forex markets for several decades and is a voice to be heard on this subject.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-russia-forum-2009-full.html
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-video-interview-russia-forum.html
11/02/2009
tjhinkh: Russia central bankhas drawn a line in the sand and whenever a central bank draw a line, it has never work. This is because the market is larger than the central bank.
Sometime this year or next, there may be serious currency problems as the US and UK has too much debt. Jim is not sure what is the next stable currency. Maybe Brazil Real, maybe Malaysia Ringgit.
February 5:
Thanks very much for giving us your time, first of all and welcome to Russia. You have made some investments in China because the government is planning big stimulus plan there, what are you making of what Russia`s doing, do you se anything interesting here in Russia that you`re investing in?
In October, November I did buy more Chinese stocks but I am not buying shares in any other country in the world right now, because most of the world is in serious trouble including China, don`t get me wrong, but I not investing anywhere and certainly not investing in Russia.
Certainly not, why?
Well, I am certainly not investing in America either, for that matter and certainly not in the UK but no, the Russians have lots of problems, deep seated problems as far as I am concerned, perhaps there`s a chance Russia will continue to disintegrate in more than one country. There are lots of potencial problems in the former soviet union.
Desintegrate, you mean, into separate countries?
The soviet union broke up into 15 countries, Russia itself has the potential to continue to break up, the Ukraine may break up Kazakisthan could break up, this is still not stable and every empire has disintegrated through out history. The reverberations have gone on for long periods of time. So I am sure there`s goods investment in Russia if you`re on the ground and you can stay with them, but not for me.
What in your opinion is Russia doing right and what is Russia doing wrong in handling this crisis?
Well, what they`re doing wrong is that they are propping up their banks which I find reprehensible I find bad economics and bad morality as well, the way the system is supposed to work is suppose you take the assets from the incompetent and give them to the competent and you start over from a stronger base. Well the rusians are making the same mistakes that the british and the Americans and everybody else is making. But taking the assets from the competent and giving them to the incompetent and know thy can compete with the competent, it weakens the whole system. Putin at least seems to understand that there is a problem with the US dollar, that the world needs to adjust to that problem, he seems to understand some of the problems the world faces better than we do in America, but for the most part the Russians are making mistakes too.
You said the Pound is finished, what is your take on the ruble?
Ahhh, the ruble. That`s a very good question. I am not sure, even is I had an answer I am not sure I would give it to you. No I am not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all. The Russian at least have natural resources to some extend but I am not optimistic about the continuing stability of Russia. The natural resources, the reserves are declining as you know, because they have been stripping the assets here in Russia for some time. Oil production peaked, production of most things peaked in Russia for the foreseeable future, so I am not buying the ruble either.
The Government announced that it would defend the ruble at 41 against the Euro / Dollar basket. Was that a mistake to announce a target?
It always as been in the past the market has learned in the last few sessions that you can always bet against the central banks and you will make money eventually. S when a central bank says “don`t you worry the pound is going to stay here or the ruble is going to stay here or whatever, ultimately that has always failed if the fi«undamentals are not sound and will fail again, everybody knows what the target is.
What is driving the fall of the ruble? Is it regular people panicking and putting their money into dollars, that one thing we`ve heard from bankers here at this forum, or is speculation?
Its mainly the Russians, in fact whenever a currency fails through out history it has always started internally, the foreigners always get the blame because the politians like to blame all their problems on the foreigners, because they don`t vote and their not there. Right now I think there something like 20 or 25% of deposits in banks in Russia in foreign currencies by Russian and not by foreigners. So its always starts with the local people, because local people always know best what`s going wrong and they start moving out. The speculators, historically always show in later.
So there are russian speculators that may be involved here too, or is this just the average bank depositor moving their money into dollars out of concern?
It seems pretty obvious that its intelligent people making intelligent decisions with their money, they can see there`s going to be problems with the rouble so they, intelligent russians have been moving out of the ruble. The rouble is down 50 or 60% in the last few moths, or in the last year or so.
The Central Bank said today that they won`t have to spill much blood to defend the ruble at 41, do you believe them?
I don`t believe in any central bank no matter what they say. The few times central banks have been right at something, you can count them with one hand. If you get your investment advice from central banks or governments you are going to go broke fast, don`t listen to those people.
Are you short the ruble?
I am not doing anything with the ruble, not right now. But knowing that the central bank drew a line in the sand it makes me stand up and take a little more notice about the ruble. So I will star thinking more about it.
Latest Jim Rogers interview. Jim Rogers went to Russia to participate in the The Russia Forum 2009 and spoke about stock markets around the world, the ruble devaluation, the us dollar and the mistakes Russia is making.
Jim is not optimistic about the future of the Ruble at all.
Jim Rogers expects several currency crisis this year and that will be major opportunities in the currency markets. The next great currency to buy mught be the Brazilian Real or the Malaysian currency. Jim Rogers has been tranding forex markets for several decades and is a voice to be heard on this subject.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-russia-forum-2009-full.html
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-video-interview-russia-forum.html
11/02/2009
tjhinkh: Russia central bankhas drawn a line in the sand and whenever a central bank draw a line, it has never work. This is because the market is larger than the central bank.
Sometime this year or next, there may be serious currency problems as the US and UK has too much debt. Jim is not sure what is the next stable currency. Maybe Brazil Real, maybe Malaysia Ringgit.
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